Beyond economics: the real threats to global stability and security
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Version 0 of 1. Earlier this year, at its annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos, the World Economic Forum (WEF) issued a list of the biggest perceived threats to world stability. For the first time, economic inequality had dropped out of the top five biggest risks. The list, put together by WEF experts, was headed by war and unrest between states, followed by extreme weather events, the failure of national governments and state collapse, and high unemployment. Davos is, of course, dominated by men; just 17% of attendees at this year’s event were women. But would a panel of mainly female experts agree with the WEF analysis, or might they take a different view of the threats and risks shaping our world? We need to deal with issues about identity politics and feelings of a lack of self-worth in young people To find out, the Guardian’s Public Leaders Network held a roundtable during a conference that, for once, had a majority of women. Women in Parliaments is an independent, Brussels-based body that focuses on how to increase women’s representation in politics. Its annual conference was held in March in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, attended by more than 400 parliamentarians, most of them women. The Guardian roundtable, sponsored by EY, brought together delegates from around the world to discuss the most pressing local, regional and global threats and how they should be tackled. While the participants agreed on the terrible toll inflicted by conflict around the world, none of them put it top of the issues they considered most threatening to global security. Instead, there was surprise that the widening gap between rich and poor was not being taken more seriously as a potential risk. “When you have a large population that don’t have jobs you’re creating the basis for instability,” said Sarbani Chakraborty, senior director, Merck. Swedish MP Agneta Gille agreed: “Exclusion is an important part of the picture,” she said, adding that inequality often underlies other threats, such as unemployment or the collapse of governments. “I’m surprised that inequality issues have fallen off the agenda.” Coming from a country in the midst of a deep economic crisis, Niki Founta, a member of the Greek parliament, agreed on the instability created by social issues. She identified unemployment and a lack of social justice as real challenges for the country, as well as the flight of highly educated young people from Greece. It was affecting everyone: “My best friend left for Australia last month and it was a shock to me,” she said. Inequality Kasthuriraani Patto, MP, member of the Malaysian opposition Democratic Action Party, said that inequality was an issue in south-east Asia, not just within countries but in the region as a whole, given the disparity of income between Singapore and neighbouring countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia. But for her, terrorism posed a far greater potential threat. Last October, the Malaysian authorities arrested 13 men and women suspected of planning to join Islamic State. Patto said the fact that Malaysia is considered a safe place for transactions and meetings by terrorists from the Middle East is a huge concern for the country. “These groups are quietly recruiting young men and women,” she said. “It’s a problem that is not yet on a global scale, but if we do not control it now we will be heading in that direction.” Both Patto and Shahriar Alam, minister of foreign affairs, Bangladesh, agreed that religious differences and sensitivities have the potential to cause instability. Patto said that religious extremism risked upsetting the balance in her country’s multiracial, multicultural society: “Race-based politics is extremely dangerous.” Alam agreed that extremist religious views were a great challenge in Bangladesh, an overwhelmingly Muslim country. Fébé Potgieter-Gqubule, special adviser to the chair of the African Union Commission, said it was vital to address why young people – men and women – were joining extremist groups around the world. “It is the same for us with Boko Haram and any of the extremist groups on the continent,” she said. “The problem might start in one country, such as Nigeria, but then it becomes regional and there is a sense that we need to deal with issues about identity politics and feelings of a lack of self-worth in young people that then cross national borders.” Identifying the potential risk from terrorism is one thing; how to deal with it remains a huge challenge. The perennial question for elected parliamentarians is whether to try and negotiate with groups that in some cases, such as Golden Dawn in Greece and extremist groups in Bangladesh, challenge the very idea of democratic government. Dealing with extremism involved “very tough decisions”, said Alam. Greek MP Founta said: “The crisis in Greece gave Golden Dawn a big push. We have to talk to this party and negotiate with it because we’re democratic, no matter if they’re not.” Johanna Tshili, a director of EY South Africa, agreed that regional conflicts cause terrible suffering and instability, but both she and Celestine Munda, a partner at EY based in Johannesburg, highlighted the risk that arises when governments and states fail. Government failure “We have seen the instability that has followed the Arab spring and the situation in Ukraine,” said Munda. “Conflicts in west Africa are also causing instability and having a significant impact on economic and social growth, but the threat of failure of government in Africa is severe.” Potgieter-Gqubule agreed: “One of the challenges facing Africa is for governments to provide the basic things.” That includes access to water and electricity, as well as building infrastructure, such as road and rail, and developing the continent’s natural resources. The African Union, a bloc of 54 countries, signed a memorandum of understanding in January with China to develop a high-speed rail project for Africa. It has also announced a policy to develop African sea power – the so-called blue economy. “Our oceanic resources are three times greater than our land mass,” said Potgieter-Gqubule. “But we don’t yet have a vibrant blue economy. Very few Africans own ships.” African nations may be trying to offset the risk of inequality by investing in infrastructure, but Potgieter-Gqubule acknowledged that more investment in higher education is also badly needed to train the teachers and engineers who would develop the continent’s prosperity, and ensure that more of Africa’s citizens can benefit from growing prosperity. “There is a real challenge about how to govern in the interests of the country, the region, and the continent, and how to address issues such as youth unemployment and women’s access to capital and to land,” she said. “It’s so difficult for women to get access to start a business, to buy a tractor or seeds. Yet everyone says it’s women who pay back loans, so we should be lending to them.” Munda agreed that governments should put policies in place that would generate greater opportunity and growth for everyone: “We need to unlock the significant opportunities the continent holds,” she said. More laws on gender parity would help, but it is also important to audit existing budgets and ensure they are being used to their intended purpose. “We need to ensure that our institutions have the independence and strength to ensure the effective use of funds,” Munda said, adding that in developing its natural resources, Africa now has an opportunity to be more creative in its approach, rather than simply copying the developed world. Natural resources Developing natural resources sustainably is a challenge for everyone, according to Swedish MP Katarina Köhler. She feels that although war is a huge problem, the greatest risks came from climate change and water scarcity, and that these issues could only be tackled through greater global solidarity. Swedish government funding was being used to address both poverty and the consequences of climate change, she said: “Every country has a responsibility to think of more than just its own interests.” Köhler added that what was in the interests of a poorer country would be better in the long run for richer countries. There was, then, no consensus about the single greatest threat to world stability, but there was agreement that it was the job of governments to face up to all these challenges. When politicians let their citizens down, the results can be disastrous. Founta said previous Greek governments had made fatal mistakes that had led to the present crisis. Despite having had a good economy for more than 20 years, Greece had still been borrowing money, she said, partly because previous governments had courted popularity and had been unclear on what the country most needed, rather than facing up to the need for restraint. “They were giving, giving, giving,” she said. “No balance, no restraint. We didn’t have our own aims.” Now, she suggested, there is a pressing need to rebuild trust and create consensus and a collective aim for the country. It was not, perhaps, surprising, that those at this roundtable disagreed with the Davos conclusions. This may have less to do with the fact they were mostly women, however, and more to do with the fact they were parliamentarians, not economists. On the panel Jane Dudman (chair) Editor, Guardian Public Leaders network Kasthuriraani Patto Member of parliament, Malaysia Johanna TshiliAfrica Talent Leader, EY Katarina KöhlerMember of the Riksdag, Sweden Sarbani Chakraborty Senior director, global public policy, Merck Shahriar Alam State minister of foreign affairs, Bangladesh Celestine Munda Partner, EY Agneta GilleMember of the Riksdag, Sweden Niki FountaMember of parliament, Greece Fébé Potgieter-Gqubule Adviser to African Union Commission chair Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma Sign up for your free weekly Guardian Public Leaders newsletter with news and analysis sent direct to you every Thursday. Follow us on Twitter via@Guardianpublic |