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Labour drawing level in the polls thanks to female support Labour drawing level in the polls thanks to female support
(about 11 hours later)
Labour is drawing level in the polls, and it’s largely thanks to the extra boost they get from their female support. Given that 2015 is likely to be a much closer election than 2010, this could prove crucial. Labour is drawing level in the polls, and it is largely thanks to the extra boost they get from their female support. Given that 2015 is likely to be a much closer election than 2010, this could prove crucial.
Labour has a four-point lead over the Conservatives among women. The party is polling at 37% with female voters, according to a 16-day average of YouGov polls up to 7 April.Labour has a four-point lead over the Conservatives among women. The party is polling at 37% with female voters, according to a 16-day average of YouGov polls up to 7 April.
This is up six points from 2010, according to Ipsos Mori exit polls from the last election.This is up six points from 2010, according to Ipsos Mori exit polls from the last election.
Although support for Labour among men has increased five points over the past five years, the party still lags two points behind the Tories when it comes to male voters (35% to 33%). Although support for Labour among men has increased by five points over the past five years, the party still lags two points behind the Tories when it comes to male voters (35% to 33%).
However, the Tories have narrowed the gender gap within their own party’s support. In 2010, the party won 36% of the female vote (up four points on 2005) and 38% of the male vote (also, more or less, up four points on the previous election). However, the Tories have narrowed the gender gap. In 2010, the party won 36% of the female vote (up four points on 2005) and 38% of the male vote (also, more or less, up four points on the previous election). Cameron’s party is now polling at 34% with women and 35% with men.
Cameron’s party is now polling at 34% with women and 35% with men.
It hasn’t always been this wayIt hasn’t always been this way
Women and men have always differed in the way they have voted since the right to do so was extended to both genders in 1918. Women and men have always differed in the way they have voted since suffrage was extended to both genders in 1918.
In the first half of the century, the Conservatives made concerted efforts to appeal to women, whom the party saw as its natural supporters.In the first half of the century, the Conservatives made concerted efforts to appeal to women, whom the party saw as its natural supporters.
When Margaret Thatcher stood for election in 1979, nearly half (47%) of female voters backed the Conservative party, while 35% were behind Labour. Among men, the race was much closer, with 43% opting for the Tories, compared to the 40% that voted Labour. When Margaret Thatcher stood for election in 1979, 47% of female voters backed the Conservative party, while 35% were behind Labour. Among men, the race was much closer, with 43% opting for the Tories, compared with 40% who voted Labour.
At some point in the last few decades, whether through demographics or a cultural shift, this dynamic was turned on its head. At some point in the past few decades, whether through demographics or a cultural shift, this dynamic was turned on its head.
In the 1997 and 2001 elections, women were just as likely to vote Labour as men, and in both 2005 and 2010 they were more likely to do so. In the 1997 and 2001 elections, women were just as likely to vote Labour as men; in 2005 and 2010, they were more likely to do so.
This caused a bit of a mini-crisis for the Conservatives in the first years of the coalition. Prime minister David Cameron’s actions were put under extra scrutiny with the view that they could be alienating women – take for example his “Calm down, dear” comment in the Commons and the unequal gender representation in his cabinet. This caused a bit of a mini-crisis for the Conservatives in the first years of the coalition. Prime minister David Cameron’s actions were put under extra scrutiny with the view that they could be alienating women – take for example his “Calm down, dear” comment in the House of Commons and the unequal gender representation in his cabinet.
Given how tight the 2010 election was, it is worth noting that if women had backed the Conservatives at the same levels as men (38%), it is not unfeasible that the party could have come closer to a majority.Given how tight the 2010 election was, it is worth noting that if women had backed the Conservatives at the same levels as men (38%), it is not unfeasible that the party could have come closer to a majority.
What’s the picture for other parties?What’s the picture for other parties?
Male support for Ukip is at 14%, although the party is only supported by 11% of women in total – perhaps indicating that even though the gender gap in the Tory vote is evening out, it has been maintained within the country’s other major rightwing party.Male support for Ukip is at 14%, although the party is only supported by 11% of women in total – perhaps indicating that even though the gender gap in the Tory vote is evening out, it has been maintained within the country’s other major rightwing party.
As in most areas, the Liberal Democrats have seen the biggest change since the 2010 election, during which 26% of women and 22% of men supported them.As in most areas, the Liberal Democrats have seen the biggest change since the 2010 election, during which 26% of women and 22% of men supported them.
Their improved result in terms of national voter share between the 2005 and 2010 elections was largely driven by an increase in female votes, as their male support was at the same level (22%) in both.Their improved result in terms of national voter share between the 2005 and 2010 elections was largely driven by an increase in female votes, as their male support was at the same level (22%) in both.
The Liberal Democrats now appeal to both genders in equal measure. The bad news is that uniform appeal stands at a much-reduced 8%.The Liberal Democrats now appeal to both genders in equal measure. The bad news is that uniform appeal stands at a much-reduced 8%.
Support for the Green party is the lowest of any of the major parties. YouGov has them at 5% of male and 6% of female voters.Support for the Green party is the lowest of any of the major parties. YouGov has them at 5% of male and 6% of female voters.