The Guardian view on the Garissa assault: it will take time to contain al-Shabaab
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Version 0 of 1. As Kenyans mourn the scores of young lives cut short so brutally at Garissa last week, their horror is compounded by their belief that much of the carnage was preventable. Many are asking why security at the university was so light, given the established threat from Somalia-based al-Shabaab; others complain that authorities were too slow to end the country’s deadliest attack in 17 years. While security forces have been overhauled since their dismal performance at the Westgate shopping mall siege in Nairobi in 2013, in which 67 people died, the violence continued for 12 hours. It took eight hours for the commandos to reach the scene. The difference between the blanket coverage that the Westgate attack received and the more cursory treatment in much of the media of the Garissa atrocity has been well noted. A social media campaign, #147notjustanumber (the death toll has since risen by one), has sought to personalise the victims. That the mall attack took place in the capital and played out live in the media over four days explains some of the discrepancy, though the involvement of westerners is at least as significant. But other attacks in the last year have passed almost ignored by the wider world. More than 60 people were killed in and around the small town of Mpeketoni last June; in November, gunmen shot dead 28 passengers on a bus near the border town of Mandera. In all cases, al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility. It has proved itself to be a shrewd, adaptable and deadly opponent, even or especially under pressure. The African Union peacekeeping mission, which has helped the Somalia government reclaim large swaths of territory from the group’s control, and the US air strike that killed leader Ahmed Abdi Godane last autumn have both weakened it and triggered new attacks. The group has explicitly blamed Kenya’s involvement in the Amisom mission for its latest assault, just as it cited Uganda’s involvement when claiming responsibility for the 2010 suicide bombing that killed 74 in Kampala. Analysts fear that Tanzania is particularly vulnerable. For this is a regional problem, not just a Somalian one, even if some believe the solution is to build a giant wall between Kenya and Somalia. Al-Shabaab sees itself as part of a global struggle and its recent attacks have sought to divide Kenya’s more than 4 million Muslims – most of whom are not of Somalian origin – from the rest of its population. A recurrent theme has been the conspicuous sorting of potential victims along religious lines, with Muslims spared. Crackdowns in the aftermath of previous attacks – such as the mass round-ups seen last year, which affected both foreigners and Kenyan Muslims – have played into their hands. Other counter-terrorism initiatives – such as the freezing of accounts announced on Wednesday – have their uses but could backfire if they cut off vital remittances to impoverished communities. Historical and socioeconomic grievances have fed disaffection. Many Muslims live in “the other Kenya”: the north-east of the country, close to the Somalian border, where almost three-quarters of residents are below the poverty line, compared to under a third in central areas. Distrust of central authorities has been high. So far, Kenyan leaders have steered clear of tactics and rhetoric that might inflame the situation. Society is stepping up, too. Muslims have staged anti-Shabaab demonstrations, while Nairobi’s Catholic archbishop has called for “a process of compassion” for the killers. Remarkably, relatives of the murdered students promised prayers of compassion for those who killed them. In the last few years, devolution has also offered signs of hope in the north-east, with additional investment in the region and some signs of progress in local governance that could help to address regional inequalities. But the university college at Garissa was itself reportedly part of efforts to develop the north-east. And the country must not only negotiate its ethnic and religious differences but resolve more prosaic administrative and structural issues, such as how well different parts of the security apparatus work together. Al-Shabaab has proved astute in testing cracks in the system in Kenya and elsewhere. Containing its threat will require judgment and patience – as well as determination. |