Tony McCoy has bookmakers on red alert at Grand National meeting

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/apr/08/tony-mccoy-bookmakers-grand-national

Version 0 of 1.

Bookmakers remain nervous at the prospect of Saturday’s Grand National, when victory for Tony McCoy on his final ride in the race could cost the betting industry tens of millions of pounds. The share prices of several major firms could start to slide as early as this afternoon, however, when McCoy will go to post aboard two warm favourites and a former Champion Hurdle winner on the opening day of Aintree’s Festival meeting.

The first two afternoons in Liverpool this year will be gentle sparring sessions when set against Saturday’s full-blooded exchanges. McCoy could still inflict some significant damage on the bookmakers on Thursday, however, if Holywell, fourth home in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham last month, and Hargam, third across the line in the Triumph Hurdle earlier the same day, could justify their short odds in the BetFred Bowl and the Anniversary Hurdle respectively. With Jezki, first and fourth in the last two Champion Hurdles, expected to start second-favourite for the Aintree Hurdle, and Ned Buntline, another likely favourite, to ride at the end of the card, the first day of the meeting will revolve around the retiring champion just as surely as the last.

Many punters will also find it hard to resist playing up any winnings from McCoy’s mounts this afternoon when he rides Shutthefrontdoor in Saturday’s Grand National, and Hargam (2.15) could be the horse to start building the momentum. Hargam is the clear pick on form, having finished four lengths behind his stablemates Peace And Co and Top Notch in one of the strongest renewals of the Triumph Hurdle for many years.

There is every chance that the selection will improve over Thursday’s flatter track and quick going, as he was unable to quicken up the hill at Cheltenham after travelling as well as any up to the final flight.

Horses that have been prepared to peak at Cheltenham sometimes struggle to maintain the same level of form at Aintree. The four-week gap between the two Festival meetings this year means that a “bounce” may be less of a concern however, and it will be a surprise if Hargam cannot exploit the significant gap in class to his opponents on Thursday.

The switch from Cheltenham’s undulations to the speed-favouring Mildmay course will not be an issue for Holywell, who produced the best winning performance of his career to take the Grade One novice chase at this meeting 12 months ago, just a few weeks after winning a competitive handicap at Cheltenham.

That victory made such an impression that Holywell remained prominent in the betting for the Gold Cup throughout the following winter despite a somewhat stop-start campaign, and he duly delivered on the promise when fourth of 16 behind Coneygree in Cheltenham’s feature event. Silviniaco Conti, the King George winner, was nearly 20 lengths further back in seventh position.

Whether the Gold Cup form makes Holywell a worthy favourite to beat Silviniaco Conti (2.50) in the BetFred Bowl is another question. Paul Nicholls had his best staying chaser fit and ready to win this race 12 months ago after another failure in the Gold Cup, and their respective runs here last year, as well as a winter campaign in which Silviniaco Conti added two more Grade One wins to his record, suggest that he still has a pound or two in hand of Holywell. At the expected odds, Silviniaco Conti is the value bet to record his third win over course and distance.

Arctic Fire (3.25) was staying on strongly at the end of the Champion Hurdle and will be a difficult opponent for McCoy’s mount Jezki when he steps up to two and a half miles in the Aintree Hurdle, while Twirling Magnet (4.05) is an interesting contender for the Fox Hunters’ Chase over the National fences now that the jumping errors that affected him earlier in his career seem to have been resolved.

Josses Hill (1.40) has also taken time to adapt to fences but looked more reliable at Cheltenham last time, while Taglietelle (5.15), who stayed on all the way to the line in when placed in the Coral Hurdle at the Festival, has an outstanding chance later on the card.