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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| The pollsters predict: Miliband nudging ahead | The pollsters predict: Miliband nudging ahead |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| 1) Polls are snapshots, not predictions. However, based on today’s figures, who, between Ed Miliband and David Cameron, do you think is in a better position with just over a month to election day? | 1) Polls are snapshots, not predictions. However, based on today’s figures, who, between Ed Miliband and David Cameron, do you think is in a better position with just over a month to election day? |
| Martin Boon, ICM: “I’d rather be Miliband right now. Neck and neck in the polls implies tangible boundary seat advantages for Labour, but it’s not just that. I think the public might just be seeing the Labour leader in a new light after his debate performance raised expectations. (Granted, they were shockingly low.)” | Martin Boon, ICM: “I’d rather be Miliband right now. Neck and neck in the polls implies tangible boundary seat advantages for Labour, but it’s not just that. I think the public might just be seeing the Labour leader in a new light after his debate performance raised expectations. (Granted, they were shockingly low.)” |
| Ben Page, chief executive of Ipsos Mori: “Cameron ought to be doing better given his personal ratings and lead on the economy, but the Conservatives remain much more disliked than Labour, and the electoral system is massively in Labour’s favour, so if anything, when the parties are neck and neck Labour may get more seats.” | Ben Page, chief executive of Ipsos Mori: “Cameron ought to be doing better given his personal ratings and lead on the economy, but the Conservatives remain much more disliked than Labour, and the electoral system is massively in Labour’s favour, so if anything, when the parties are neck and neck Labour may get more seats.” |
| Related: Meet the pollsters who are predicting the general election results | Related: Meet the pollsters who are predicting the general election results |
| Adam Drummond, Opinium: “[There is a distinction between] a better position to win the election or a better position to form a government afterwards. Usually the two were linked, but this time I’d say Cameron is better placed to win the election; however, for forming a government I’d say Miliband for the simple reason that there are more coalition options open to Labour if no party wins a majority.” | Adam Drummond, Opinium: “[There is a distinction between] a better position to win the election or a better position to form a government afterwards. Usually the two were linked, but this time I’d say Cameron is better placed to win the election; however, for forming a government I’d say Miliband for the simple reason that there are more coalition options open to Labour if no party wins a majority.” |
| Joe Twyman, head of political and social research at YouGov: “As things stand at the moment … I would have to conclude that Miliband is in the better position of the two, but this has more to do with potential friends in the Commons than friends in the electorate. If both parties do as the polls currently suggest and fall well short of a majority, an alliance (albeit potentially informal) between Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems seems far more workable than Conservatives, Ukip and the Lib Dems.” | Joe Twyman, head of political and social research at YouGov: “As things stand at the moment … I would have to conclude that Miliband is in the better position of the two, but this has more to do with potential friends in the Commons than friends in the electorate. If both parties do as the polls currently suggest and fall well short of a majority, an alliance (albeit potentially informal) between Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems seems far more workable than Conservatives, Ukip and the Lib Dems.” |
| Damian Lyons Lowe, founder and chief executive, Survation: “The poll of polls shows that either party could win the most seats. However, the sum of the ‘progressive left’ (Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens) adds up to an obstacle that seems too formidable for Cameron to overcome.” | Damian Lyons Lowe, founder and chief executive, Survation: “The poll of polls shows that either party could win the most seats. However, the sum of the ‘progressive left’ (Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens) adds up to an obstacle that seems too formidable for Cameron to overcome.” |
| Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes: “I have changed my view over the past three weeks or so towards David Cameron leading the largest party but well short of a majority. Why? Because the underlying data, while moving at a tectonic pace, are in his favour and there remain four weeks of campaigning to go. He is still seen as the better leader and less of a risk than Ed Miliband.” | Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes: “I have changed my view over the past three weeks or so towards David Cameron leading the largest party but well short of a majority. Why? Because the underlying data, while moving at a tectonic pace, are in his favour and there remain four weeks of campaigning to go. He is still seen as the better leader and less of a risk than Ed Miliband.” |
| Laurence Stellings, an associate director at Populus: “Although the structure of the electoral system favours Miliband, Cameron and his Conservatives have gradually, over several years, clawed back Labour’s lead and Cameron leads on two key issues with a month to go: the economy and being a good PM.” | Laurence Stellings, an associate director at Populus: “Although the structure of the electoral system favours Miliband, Cameron and his Conservatives have gradually, over several years, clawed back Labour’s lead and Cameron leads on two key issues with a month to go: the economy and being a good PM.” |
| Michelle Harrison, global head of public affairs at TNS: “If we look at the approval ratings of the two main leaders, Cameron still has a clear advantage over Miliband. This ultimately may prove decisive. Equally important, when they put aside personal allegiances, our polls show that the public think the Tories will be the largest party. In the absence of a firm lead, I’ll go with the wisdom of the crowds.” | Michelle Harrison, global head of public affairs at TNS: “If we look at the approval ratings of the two main leaders, Cameron still has a clear advantage over Miliband. This ultimately may prove decisive. Equally important, when they put aside personal allegiances, our polls show that the public think the Tories will be the largest party. In the absence of a firm lead, I’ll go with the wisdom of the crowds.” |
| 2) What do you think is the greatest factor of uncertainty in this election? | 2) What do you think is the greatest factor of uncertainty in this election? |
| All the pollsters mentioned as factors that may prove decisive the extent of support for the smaller parties (Ukip and the Greens in particular) and possible tactical voting by their current supporters; the number of seats Labour loses in Scotland; and how many Lib Dems survive.. | All the pollsters mentioned as factors that may prove decisive the extent of support for the smaller parties (Ukip and the Greens in particular) and possible tactical voting by their current supporters; the number of seats Labour loses in Scotland; and how many Lib Dems survive.. |
| Laurence Stellings, Populus: “Even a few more seats held by Labour in Scotland, or not lost by the Conservatives to Ukip, could make a difference to the type and nature of the next government.” | Laurence Stellings, Populus: “Even a few more seats held by Labour in Scotland, or not lost by the Conservatives to Ukip, could make a difference to the type and nature of the next government.” |
| Andrew Hawkins, ComRes: [The UK voting system] without question is likely to throw up any number of strange and potentially unfair results. One such result is likely to be MPs elected on very low vote shares.” | Andrew Hawkins, ComRes: [The UK voting system] without question is likely to throw up any number of strange and potentially unfair results. One such result is likely to be MPs elected on very low vote shares.” |
| Adam Drummond, Opinium: “The other figures that seem most uncertain to me are the Labour and Conservative totals in England. My personal prediction (at the moment) is a minority Labour government propped up by the SNP and possibly the Lib Dems so the question is whether there’s a crisis of legitimacy if the Tories ‘win’ the election but don’t get to form the government.” | |
| 3) The underlying trends within polls tend not to move much over a short period of time. What, if anything, can swing this election for the Tories or Labour? | 3) The underlying trends within polls tend not to move much over a short period of time. What, if anything, can swing this election for the Tories or Labour? |
| Joe Twyman, YouGov: “The overall story of the polls is pretty much where it was at the start of the campaign, which is pretty much where it was at the start of the year. Despite the TV debates, the interviews, the speeches and numerous appearances in hard hats and hi-vis jackets, not much has changed. However, the reality is that most people don’t actually take much of an interest in politics and a significant proportion only pay attention for a couple of weeks every five years – if at all. Over the next month, therefore, we could see some change, and if we do I expect it is most likely to come from those who have converted to smaller parties during the course of this parliament. | |
| “For example around four in 10 of the ‘Ukip converts’ voted Conservative in 2010. Similarly, around four in 10 of the ‘SNP converts’ voted Labour in 2010. Will they stay with their new parties, or when push really comes to shove will they return?” | “For example around four in 10 of the ‘Ukip converts’ voted Conservative in 2010. Similarly, around four in 10 of the ‘SNP converts’ voted Labour in 2010. Will they stay with their new parties, or when push really comes to shove will they return?” |
| Michelle Harrison, TNS: “If (and it’s a big if) Miliband were able to leverage the debates to prompt people to reconsider their views of him, this removes one of the main stumbling blocks for Labour.” | Michelle Harrison, TNS: “If (and it’s a big if) Miliband were able to leverage the debates to prompt people to reconsider their views of him, this removes one of the main stumbling blocks for Labour.” |
| Martin Boon, ICM: “I think Miliband coming into his own again with convincing debate performances in front of a large national audience is suddenly his big chance. If he can present himself as thoroughly electable then he offsets the inevitable Tory attacks on his prime ministerial capabilities. I don’t really see the Tories having any white rabbits up their sleeve – all they can hope for is a late incumbency effect.” | Martin Boon, ICM: “I think Miliband coming into his own again with convincing debate performances in front of a large national audience is suddenly his big chance. If he can present himself as thoroughly electable then he offsets the inevitable Tory attacks on his prime ministerial capabilities. I don’t really see the Tories having any white rabbits up their sleeve – all they can hope for is a late incumbency effect.” |
| Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation: “Miliband’s ratings have not only improved, but if you look at most recent opinion (in its polls, Survation asks to rate leaders’ performance over the past month), the Labour leader has for the first time ever a net positive score … People like the happy warrior.” | Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation: “Miliband’s ratings have not only improved, but if you look at most recent opinion (in its polls, Survation asks to rate leaders’ performance over the past month), the Labour leader has for the first time ever a net positive score … People like the happy warrior.” |
| Ben Page, Ipsos Mori: “We have 51% who say they might change their minds, a figure which has been rising ever since 1992, when it was only 18%. So it may come down to how swing voters ‘feel’ in the final week, and the ‘momentum’ either side manages to develop during the campaign. Feeling Ed Miliband is incompetent and the recovery is at risk with Labour is the Conservatives’ big hope. That did for Neil Kinnock in 1992.” | Ben Page, Ipsos Mori: “We have 51% who say they might change their minds, a figure which has been rising ever since 1992, when it was only 18%. So it may come down to how swing voters ‘feel’ in the final week, and the ‘momentum’ either side manages to develop during the campaign. Feeling Ed Miliband is incompetent and the recovery is at risk with Labour is the Conservatives’ big hope. That did for Neil Kinnock in 1992.” |
| Laurence Stellings, Populus: “Polls move slowly, and most people pay very little attention to politics even during campaigns. At the last general election, even ‘big events’ like ‘bigot-gate’ served to reinforce impressions rather than change them.” | Laurence Stellings, Populus: “Polls move slowly, and most people pay very little attention to politics even during campaigns. At the last general election, even ‘big events’ like ‘bigot-gate’ served to reinforce impressions rather than change them.” |
| Adam Drummond, Opinium: “Short of an enormous game-changing gaffe it’s hard to think of anything that could really swing this one way or the other. All of the big events we have seen so far, the budget, the various TV debates, etc, have barely moved the numbers at all. The last major game-changer was the SNP surge which came at the culmination of a three-year referendum campaign. I doubt either party has anything of similar magnitude planned before May!” | Adam Drummond, Opinium: “Short of an enormous game-changing gaffe it’s hard to think of anything that could really swing this one way or the other. All of the big events we have seen so far, the budget, the various TV debates, etc, have barely moved the numbers at all. The last major game-changer was the SNP surge which came at the culmination of a three-year referendum campaign. I doubt either party has anything of similar magnitude planned before May!” |
| 4) Of your repeated poll questions, which are you keeping a special eye on? | 4) Of your repeated poll questions, which are you keeping a special eye on? |
| Michelle Harrison, TNS: “[The key measures] are the economic and personal outlook confidence questions. Female voters are consistently more pessimistic on all these measures than men. No one party has yet connected with this group in a way which provides them with optimism for the future.” | Michelle Harrison, TNS: “[The key measures] are the economic and personal outlook confidence questions. Female voters are consistently more pessimistic on all these measures than men. No one party has yet connected with this group in a way which provides them with optimism for the future.” |
| Laurence Stellings, Populus: “The competence of the leaders Cameron and Miliband, particularly who was succeeding in making the election a referendum on the long-term economic plan and a straight choice between two leaders, or one about ‘values’ and the NHS. | Laurence Stellings, Populus: “The competence of the leaders Cameron and Miliband, particularly who was succeeding in making the election a referendum on the long-term economic plan and a straight choice between two leaders, or one about ‘values’ and the NHS. |
| Joe Twyman, YouGov: “I am keeping a special eye on the short battery of questions we ask about whether various different things would be best dealt with by a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Ed Miliband. It gets to the heart of the ‘hold your nose or cut it off to spite your face’ strategy.” | Joe Twyman, YouGov: “I am keeping a special eye on the short battery of questions we ask about whether various different things would be best dealt with by a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Ed Miliband. It gets to the heart of the ‘hold your nose or cut it off to spite your face’ strategy.” |
| Other respondents were in agreement that the movements to watch were the ratings of Cameron and Miliband, and the saliency of issues. | Other respondents were in agreement that the movements to watch were the ratings of Cameron and Miliband, and the saliency of issues. |