Leaders' TV debate: a reflection of state of UK politics and populace
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Version 0 of 1. The polls appeared to say it was inconclusive. A four-way tie between David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage and Nicola Sturgeon. Nothing to learn then? Actually, there was plenty. 1 Miliband is pulling up level with Cameron Of the four post-debate polls, one showed the Tory leader as the victor over his Labour counterpart, another gave the opposite result, and two polls recorded a tie. When respondents were asked to choose between Cameron and Miliband in a forced choice, the ICM poll saw both on 50% once don’t knows were excluded. When asked in the same poll who voters would prefer as prime minister, 46% said Cameron and 38% said Miliband. The two leaders also remained firmly anchored on their respective strengths. Miliband overwhelmingly leads Cameron on questions about the NHS and is seen to act in the interests of the public at large. The Conservative leader is still well ahead when it comes to managing the economy and is perceived as being more decisive and better at handling a crisis than his Labour counterpart. But it is important to remember, however, that before the Jeremy Paxman interviews on Channel 4 last week, Cameron led Miliband by about 15-20 points on the PM question. Last week, after those interviews, the Labour leader narrowed that gap to under 10 points. Following the seven-way debate, Miliband was able to keep in touching distance on that particular question. Not only that, Miliband outscored Cameron by 48% to 42% in Thursday’s ICM poll when voters were asked who between the two made the strongest arguments. Both leaders were tied on 39% on the “who has the courage to say what is right rather than what is popular?” question. Each data point tells a slightly different story, but whatever the ongoing fire the Conservative campaign (and friendly media) are directing at the Labour leader the last fortnight have seen his personal ratings improve and he remains competitive with Cameron. 2 Farage is too polarising to help his party improve in the polls Farage was was one of only two party leader to outscore his party, according to the post-debate polls. The other was the SNP’s Sturgeon. But the Ukip leader remains the most divisive of the lot. Three polls asked voters who they thought performed best and worse among the seven participants. Farage was near the top slot on both counts – and was floating high in tables relating to questions about honesty and being in touch with people’s concerns: respondents in the ComRes poll placed him highest on the former and virtually tied with Miliband on the latter. Final verdicts on the leaders in our snap poll for @ITVNews #Leadersdebate pic.twitter.com/QkgRbx0iyX However, no issue best exemplifies the Ukip leader’s divisiveness than immigration. Farage’s claim that it costs Britain £25,000 to treat each foreign patient with HIV was criticised by his rivals and triggered outrage on social media. But when asked who among the seven leaders had the best answers on immigration, one in two respondents in Survation’s poll said Farage. In a seven-way debate, a near 50% level of agreement on one candidate is remarkable. What this implies is that the voters have made up their mind when it comes to Ukip: they either strongly agree with Farage or they strongly disagree. There is no centre ground. And this is unlikely to change before the election. The toxicity of Farage with large parts of the electorate means that concerns over a possible Conservative-Ukip deal could become a potent factor during the campaign – and more so after 7 May if Cameron were to discover that he needs Ukip’s support to form a government. Who do you think was “best” on immigration? Survation for @DailyMirror - ALL CANDIDATES pic.twitter.com/G2MMnPe1z0 3 Clegg is becoming irrelevant Five years, or rather 261 weeks, is a very, very long time in politics. Remember the 2010 leader’s debate? The famous “I agree with Nick” night sent his party surging 10 points in the polls. After Thursday’s debate, however, 9% of those polled thought the Lib Dem leader performed the best among the seven duelists. That is pretty much in line with his party’s dismal polling. More to the point, only 20% of Lib Dem voters in YouGov’s survey thought their candidate won the debate, with one in three Lib Dems polled handing the top spot to Sturgeon and 14% to Farage. It is not even that viewers felt that Clegg performed badly. ICM, for example, found that almost six out of 10 thought the Lib Dem leader performed well compared with the 41% who felt he did badly. It’s that it no longer matters. The critical issue for Clegg is trust: only 10% thought he was the most honest and just 8% that he was the most understanding of voters’ concerns. Five years ago, Clegg was the change candidate. On Thursday night he looked like the senior politician who will soon be cutting ribbons at party offices and working the same well-oiled jokes in after dinner speeches. He may even, if Lord Ashcroft’s recent poll is proved corect, lose his Sheffield Hallam seat. 4 Sturgeon has broken through to the rest of the UK The SNP leader has become a household name across the UK. A YouGov focus group of seven female and four male undecided voters failed to recognise her before the debate. At that point, only 9% of people had expected Sturgeon to win the debate, according to a poll by the same company. But according to Google, the SNP leader was the most searched-for participant midway through the debate, and by the end of the evening the sixth most Googled question was “Can I vote for the SNP?”. That said, the number of additional seats that the SNP is likely to gain as a consequence of Thursday’s debate is unlikely to change. The party, after all, is already projected to win in nearly all of Scotland’s 59 constituencies. However, the fact that the leader of a party that fields candidates only in Scotland – and advocates to secession from the rest of Britain, topped a UK-wide poll is remarkable. Consider this: nationally, the SNP’s share of the vote amounts to about 5% across Britain. On Thursday, one in three Labour voters, one in three Lib Dems, and about 15% of both Tory and Ukip voters thought Sturgeon won the debate. When asked who performed best, Sturgeon topped the net rankings (best performer minus worst performer) in all three polls that asked that question. Sturgeon’s performance reinforced the SNP’s strength in Scotland and exported its appeal south of the border. What have we learned? The leaders’ debate was a reflection of the current face of Britain’s politics and populace. Voters are split along faultlines that have become deeper since the last election. Thursday’s proceedings won’t change that - if anything, the events will have reinforced the divisions in the political landscape. |