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Eurozone factory growth hits 10-month high, but Greece lags behind - live updates Eurozone factory growth hits 10-month high, but Greece lags behind - live updates
(35 minutes later)
9.55am BST09:55
Britain's "unprecedented" weak productivity run continues
Despite the recovery, Britain’s economy still suffers from weak productivity.
Data just released by the Office for National Statistics shows that labour force productivity fell by 0.2% in the last three months of 2014.
In simple terms, that means British employees actually generated slightly less economic activity for each hour they spent at work.
The ONS says there was no improvement in productivity last year, and that the economy is still less productive than before the financial crisis.
It says:
The absence of productivity growth in the seven years since 2007 is unprecedented in the post-war period.
7 lean years of no productivity growth... Time for a biblical analogy?
9.36am BST09:36
Eight-month high for UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index counters some of those slowdown fears: http://t.co/16fY2GkFMk
9.36am BST09:36
March was a good month for UK factories too -- the sector grew at its fastest rate in eight months.
The UK manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 in March, up from 54.0 in February, thanks to strong domestic demand. Export orders picked up too, as the “bright start to the year” continues.
9.25am BST09:25
Political uncertainty hits Greek factories
Greece is not sharing in this revival in the eurozone economy -- its factory sector contracted again last month.
Greece’s manufacturers reported a third straight monthly drop in output in March, confirming that economic conditions have deteriorated since the country’s political upheaval began.
Firms reported another drop in new orders, particularly from abroad, suggesting uncertainty over its bailout programme has hit confidence.
This pushed the Greek factory PMI, measuring activity across the sector, below the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction for the seventh month running.
Markit explains:
Weighing on overall inflows of new business was a sharp and accelerated decrease in new export orders, which panel members linked in part to foreign clients being deterred by political uncertainty in Greece.
Economist Phil Smith warned that Greece’s recovery “looks to be on hold for now.”
9.13am BST09:139.13am BST09:13
Eurozone factory growth hits 10-month highEurozone factory growth hits 10-month high
The eurozone’s economic recovery has strengthened, as manufacturing activity across the region grew at the fastest pace since last May.The eurozone’s economic recovery has strengthened, as manufacturing activity across the region grew at the fastest pace since last May.
Growth accelerated in Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, as the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme stimulates demand and drives down the euro.Growth accelerated in Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, as the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme stimulates demand and drives down the euro.
Markit’s manufacturing PMI, just released, hit a 10-month high of 52.2 -- higher than that 51.9 estimated two weeks ago. And as already flagged up this morning, many firms reported they took on more staff to handle increased demand.Markit’s manufacturing PMI, just released, hit a 10-month high of 52.2 -- higher than that 51.9 estimated two weeks ago. And as already flagged up this morning, many firms reported they took on more staff to handle increased demand.
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, says the eurozone economy is reviving, but there are black spots.Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, says the eurozone economy is reviving, but there are black spots.
“Producers are benefitting from the weaker euro, which has had the dual effect of boosting competitiveness in export markets as well as making competing imports more expensive in the home markets.“Producers are benefitting from the weaker euro, which has had the dual effect of boosting competitiveness in export markets as well as making competing imports more expensive in the home markets.
“New orders are consequently showing the best growth for nearly a year, and the fact that manufacturers are boosting their payroll numbers at the fastest rate for three-and-a half years indicates optimism that the upturn will be sustained in coming months.“New orders are consequently showing the best growth for nearly a year, and the fact that manufacturers are boosting their payroll numbers at the fastest rate for three-and-a half years indicates optimism that the upturn will be sustained in coming months.
“Rising demand is also helping firms and their suppliers to re-establish some pricing power. Factory input prices rose for the first time in seven months and selling prices were broadly stable, providing encouraging news that deflationary forces are easing.“Rising demand is also helping firms and their suppliers to re-establish some pricing power. Factory input prices rose for the first time in seven months and selling prices were broadly stable, providing encouraging news that deflationary forces are easing.
“This is still a fledgling recovery, however, and the overall rate of expansion remains only modest. Importantly, manufacturing is still in decline in France, Greece and Austria, acting as drags on the region’s revival.”“This is still a fledgling recovery, however, and the overall rate of expansion remains only modest. Importantly, manufacturing is still in decline in France, Greece and Austria, acting as drags on the region’s revival.”
8.58am BST08:588.58am BST08:58
Those French and German PMIs are both higher than the ‘flash’ readings two weeks ago, suggesting that conditions improved during March.Those French and German PMIs are both higher than the ‘flash’ readings two weeks ago, suggesting that conditions improved during March.
Upward revisions to final PMIs (Germany/France) suggest positive momentum continued in the past 10 days or so. #QEuphoria #QEboostUpward revisions to final PMIs (Germany/France) suggest positive momentum continued in the past 10 days or so. #QEuphoria #QEboost
8.57am BST08:578.57am BST08:57
Here comes Germany’s manufacturing PMI...Here comes Germany’s manufacturing PMI...
...and it’s another month of solid growth for factories in Europe’s largest economy....and it’s another month of solid growth for factories in Europe’s largest economy.
The German manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in March, up from 51.1, which shows tht faster growth in eleven months.The German manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in March, up from 51.1, which shows tht faster growth in eleven months.
8.52am BST08:528.52am BST08:52
France’s factory sector has shrunk again, but at least the pace of decline has slowed.France’s factory sector has shrunk again, but at least the pace of decline has slowed.
The French manufacturing PMI came in at 48.8 for March, up from 47.6 in February -- but still below the 50-point mark that splits expansion and contraction.The French manufacturing PMI came in at 48.8 for March, up from 47.6 in February -- but still below the 50-point mark that splits expansion and contraction.
France Manufacturing #PMI rises to 48.8 but still signals deteriorating business conditions http://t.co/bJEqHa6k3W http://t.co/6u8ZIS0WFpFrance Manufacturing #PMI rises to 48.8 but still signals deteriorating business conditions http://t.co/bJEqHa6k3W http://t.co/6u8ZIS0WFp
8.49am BST08:498.49am BST08:49
Finally some good economic news for #Italy As its manufacturing #PMI rises to 53.3 http://t.co/4I79ddcDIF #ECB #QE #EuroFinally some good economic news for #Italy As its manufacturing #PMI rises to 53.3 http://t.co/4I79ddcDIF #ECB #QE #Euro
8.49am BST08:498.49am BST08:49
Good news from Italy too -- factory output has hit an 11-month high last month.Good news from Italy too -- factory output has hit an 11-month high last month.
Data firm Markit reports that the Italian manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3, from 51.9, showing that the sector expanded. Growth is “gathering momentum”, it says, with firms hiring staff at the fastest rate since February 2011.Data firm Markit reports that the Italian manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3, from 51.9, showing that the sector expanded. Growth is “gathering momentum”, it says, with firms hiring staff at the fastest rate since February 2011.
Here’s the key points:Here’s the key points:
8.41am BST08:418.41am BST08:41
Spanish factory recovery acceleratesSpanish factory recovery accelerates
Spain’s economic recovery continues to pick up pace, as the weaker euro gives Spanish firms a boost.Spain’s economic recovery continues to pick up pace, as the weaker euro gives Spanish firms a boost.
The Spanish PMI jumped to 54.3 from 54.2, which is another month of solid growth.The Spanish PMI jumped to 54.3 from 54.2, which is another month of solid growth.
Crucially, firms hired staff at the fastest rate since June 2007.Crucially, firms hired staff at the fastest rate since June 2007.
And many reported that new business from abroad was boosted by the relative weakness of the euro, particularly against the US dollar.And many reported that new business from abroad was boosted by the relative weakness of the euro, particularly against the US dollar.
Andrew Harker, senior economist at Markit and author of the report, says the trend of “consistently solid growth” continued last month:Andrew Harker, senior economist at Markit and author of the report, says the trend of “consistently solid growth” continued last month:
The highlight from the latest survey was the strongest rise in employment since mid-2007, as the labour market continues to recover.The highlight from the latest survey was the strongest rise in employment since mid-2007, as the labour market continues to recover.
Meanwhile, the sharp reductions in input prices seen in the first two months of the year were not repeated at the end of Q1 as the weakness of the euro led to rises in the cost of imported items.”Meanwhile, the sharp reductions in input prices seen in the first two months of the year were not repeated at the end of Q1 as the weakness of the euro led to rises in the cost of imported items.”
8.34am BST08:348.34am BST08:34
Turkey’s factory sector has contracted at the fastest rate in almost six years.Turkey’s factory sector has contracted at the fastest rate in almost six years.
Output, new orders, and new export orders all declined, adding to concerns that its economy is slowing down. Firms reported “generally weak domestic and international market conditions”.Output, new orders, and new export orders all declined, adding to concerns that its economy is slowing down. Firms reported “generally weak domestic and international market conditions”.
Yesterday’s mysterious power cut, which left half the country without energy, won’t have helped -- many factories in the western city of Izmit weren’t able to work, for example.Yesterday’s mysterious power cut, which left half the country without energy, won’t have helped -- many factories in the western city of Izmit weren’t able to work, for example.
Turkish manufacturing downturn intensifies in March, #PMI at 48.0 (49.6 in Feb), lowest since April 2009 http://t.co/TZAzecfbofTurkish manufacturing downturn intensifies in March, #PMI at 48.0 (49.6 in Feb), lowest since April 2009 http://t.co/TZAzecfbof
8.18am BST08:188.18am BST08:18
Russia’s factory sector continued to contract last month.Russia’s factory sector continued to contract last month.
HSBC’s Russia Manufacturing PMI, measures activity in the sector, fell to 48.1 from 49.7. Any reading below 50 shows a drop in activity.HSBC’s Russia Manufacturing PMI, measures activity in the sector, fell to 48.1 from 49.7. Any reading below 50 shows a drop in activity.
The sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine conflict may be biting, along with the impact of the lower oil price. Many firms reporting that conditions have deteriorated.The sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine conflict may be biting, along with the impact of the lower oil price. Many firms reporting that conditions have deteriorated.
Paul Smith, Senior Economist at Markit, warned that some companies are struggling to get financing too:Paul Smith, Senior Economist at Markit, warned that some companies are struggling to get financing too:
“March’s survey data indicated that operating conditions remained challenging overall, with output, new orders and employment all posting modest falls. Access to working capital also remains a hurdle to overcome for a number of manufacturers.”“March’s survey data indicated that operating conditions remained challenging overall, with output, new orders and employment all posting modest falls. Access to working capital also remains a hurdle to overcome for a number of manufacturers.”
Updated at 8.23am BSTUpdated at 8.23am BST
8.09am BST08:098.09am BST08:09
Overnight, an official survey of the Chinese factory sector was a little stronger than expected in March, driving the Shanghai stock market to a new seven-year high.Overnight, an official survey of the Chinese factory sector was a little stronger than expected in March, driving the Shanghai stock market to a new seven-year high.
The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 from 49.9, showing very marginal growth. But a rival survey was less optimistic, showing a drop in employment and new orders.The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 from 49.9, showing very marginal growth. But a rival survey was less optimistic, showing a drop in employment and new orders.
More stimulus may still be needed to stop the country’s economy slowing. More here.More stimulus may still be needed to stop the country’s economy slowing. More here.
Overnight data from China - especially HSBC manufacturing survey - point to a further slowdown in growth.Overnight data from China - especially HSBC manufacturing survey - point to a further slowdown in growth.
Updated at 8.26am BSTUpdated at 8.26am BST
7.57am BST07:577.57am BST07:57
Greek minister: Deal before Orthodox EasterGreek minister: Deal before Orthodox Easter
With a deal before Western Easter looking very unlikely, Greece’s government has now declared that it will reach agreement with its lenders before Orthodox Easter (which falls on 12 April).With a deal before Western Easter looking very unlikely, Greece’s government has now declared that it will reach agreement with its lenders before Orthodox Easter (which falls on 12 April).
Economy Minister George Stathakis has just told Skai TV that the two sides will agree a package of reforms next week, saying:Economy Minister George Stathakis has just told Skai TV that the two sides will agree a package of reforms next week, saying:
“The agreement will close on (Greek Orthodox) Easter week.”“The agreement will close on (Greek Orthodox) Easter week.”
For that to happen, the Greek side will have to produce a credible, detailed programme of reforms. Some officials in Brussels have warned that the current plan is still too much of a ‘wish list’.For that to happen, the Greek side will have to produce a credible, detailed programme of reforms. Some officials in Brussels have warned that the current plan is still too much of a ‘wish list’.
And next week looks rather lively; with the IMF expecting a €450m repayment from Greece on Thursday, April 9th.And next week looks rather lively; with the IMF expecting a €450m repayment from Greece on Thursday, April 9th.
Stathakis also tried to placate critics in his own party, who oppose selling off state assets. He said the government still plans to hold a stake in the country’s largest port, Piraeus, rather than selling the whole thing.Stathakis also tried to placate critics in his own party, who oppose selling off state assets. He said the government still plans to hold a stake in the country’s largest port, Piraeus, rather than selling the whole thing.
“The idea that prevailed is that we will not proceed with a privatisation of the 67 percent stake, which would mean a full privatisation of Piraeus port. We are not discussing this.”“The idea that prevailed is that we will not proceed with a privatisation of the 67 percent stake, which would mean a full privatisation of Piraeus port. We are not discussing this.”
“We are trying to find some kind of joint venture.”“We are trying to find some kind of joint venture.”
(quotes via Reuters)(quotes via Reuters)
7.50am BST07:507.50am BST07:50
The agenda: Greek teleconference call, and euro PMIsThe agenda: Greek teleconference call, and euro PMIs
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
With Greece’s negotiations with its creditors over economic reforms seemingly becalmed, eurozone finance officials will hold a teleconference call today to assess the state of play.With Greece’s negotiations with its creditors over economic reforms seemingly becalmed, eurozone finance officials will hold a teleconference call today to assess the state of play.
The euro working group will discuss the chances of a deal, following five days of talks in Brussels which ended yesterday.The euro working group will discuss the chances of a deal, following five days of talks in Brussels which ended yesterday.
Although the Athens side are making positive noises, there’s no indication yet that we’re close to a breakthrough that would release the bailout funds it desperately needs.Although the Athens side are making positive noises, there’s no indication yet that we’re close to a breakthrough that would release the bailout funds it desperately needs.
No wonder Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande were chivvying Greece to speed things up, at a press conference on Tuesday.No wonder Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande were chivvying Greece to speed things up, at a press conference on Tuesday.
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett waded into the issue last night, telling CNBC thatBillionaire investor Warren Buffett waded into the issue last night, telling CNBC that
“If it turns out the Greeks leave, that may not be a bad thing for the euro.“If it turns out the Greeks leave, that may not be a bad thing for the euro.
“If everybody learns that the rules mean something and if they come to general agreement about fiscal policy among members, or something of the sort, that they mean business, that could be a good thing.”“If everybody learns that the rules mean something and if they come to general agreement about fiscal policy among members, or something of the sort, that they mean business, that could be a good thing.”
The European Central Bank is also expected to ponder the Greek crisis today, to decide whether to continue providing emergency liquidity to the Greek banking sector.The European Central Bank is also expected to ponder the Greek crisis today, to decide whether to continue providing emergency liquidity to the Greek banking sector.
That support is effectively keeping Greek banks alive, as worried savers continue to withdraw fundsThat support is effectively keeping Greek banks alive, as worried savers continue to withdraw funds
The lack of progress in Greece is weighing on Europe’s stock markets; they’re expected to fall again today, adding to yesterday’s tumble.The lack of progress in Greece is weighing on Europe’s stock markets; they’re expected to fall again today, adding to yesterday’s tumble.
#FTSE expected to open around 20 points lower. European stock index futures down on #Greece bailout uncertainty#FTSE expected to open around 20 points lower. European stock index futures down on #Greece bailout uncertainty
And there’s also lots of economic data due this morning, with Markit releasing its Purchasing Managers Index surveys of Europe’s manufacturing sectors. The PMIs are likely to show that eurozone factories continued to grow, but that France lagged behind again.And there’s also lots of economic data due this morning, with Markit releasing its Purchasing Managers Index surveys of Europe’s manufacturing sectors. The PMIs are likely to show that eurozone factories continued to grow, but that France lagged behind again.
Eu #daybook: manufacturing PMI data; ECB policy makers are said to be holding weekly review of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greece Wed.Eu #daybook: manufacturing PMI data; ECB policy makers are said to be holding weekly review of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greece Wed.
We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day...We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day...