With her network, Lambie sets herself up as a Tasmanian Pauline Hanson
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Version 0 of 1. Less than a week after the launch of the Dick Smith party, another political movement named after its creator was announced: the Jacqui Lambie network. Her latest move makes it clear she’s setting herself up as a Tasmanian regionalist and rightwing populist. While Lambie’s antics have been the source of much amusement among commentators, it throws up an interesting question: could Lambie be Tasmania’s answer to Pauline Hanson after all? Related: Jacqui Lambie has drawn out Clive Palmer's bullying and diminished his power | Paula Matthewson In addition to standing up for veterans and Australian Defence Force personnel, as we would have expected, Lambie will also be seeking to protect Tasmanians and other Australians from – as she announced on Wednesday – the imposition of Sharia law “either formally or informally”. This is typical of the type of appeal made by right politicians in Europe and the United States in the years since 9/11, based on the notion of “Islamisation by stealth”. It’s also a way of calling out the “liberal elites” who favour the “Muslim other” over their local population. The cover of the new party’s constitution, which carries a map of Tasmania, makes it clear where her geographical focus lies. Is there a market for this kind of politics in Lambie’s home state? Yes and no. Her base, in northern Tasmania, has high levels of unemployment (particularly among youth) and disadvantage. She is undoubtedly popular in pockets of Burnie and Devonport, for example. While Hanson had almost no impact in the state, she was not a Tasmanian. Lambie’s local appeal might see her succeed where Hanson failed. Australia is certainly not the only Western democracy to have seen the rise of rightwing, populist “personal” parties like Lambie’s in recent decades. Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia in Italy, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, and Ross Perot’s Reform party in the United States were all clear cases where the party is an expression of the leader, rather than the leader an expression of the party. In Australia, however, the personal nature of these parties is made even plainer by the fact that they bear the leader’s name – from Pauline Hanson to Bob Katter to Clive Palmer to Nick Xenophon. While ego is surely part of the explanation for this, another reason is structural: the Senate ballot paper. If Lambie were to stand as an independent next election (probably not until around 2018) her name would be just one of a large number of options for Tasmanian voters below the line. However, if “Lambie” becomes a party rather than a single candidate, then her name appears above the line on the Senate ballot paper, allowing her to control the preferences of those who vote for her “Network”. Lambie is therefore relying on the Senate voting system, including the increasingly controversial Group Voting Tickets (GVTs) and “preference harvesting” capacity remaining in place. Both of these contributed to her election as a Palmer United party Senator in 2013. There are two caveats, however. First, the established parties all support changing these rules. That said, if proposed changes to the Senate voting rules are introduced, a number of the “micro parties” have threatened to refuse to work with the government on any piece of legislation. For now, we have a stalemate. Secondly, Tasmanians have a history of below the line voting. While this dropped substantially in 2013, down to roughly 10%, it was approximately double that in 2010. This contrasts sharply with other states where below the line voting is often around 5%. Related: Jacqui Lambie's Fofa stand: a bunch of fives for Clive, a bunch of six for Tony There are opportunities for Lambie as a single candidate. Transforming personal support into broader electoral success, however, is very difficult. As Hanson’s trajectory shows, establishing a party after an initial breakthrough requires strong organisational skills. Even with his considerable resources, Jacqui’s former leader Palmer appears to be coming up short on this score. There is little so far to suggest his Tasmanian protégé will fare any better. |