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Version 3 Version 4
UK growth revised up to 0.6% in last quarter - live updates UK growth revised up to 0.6% in last quarter - live updates
(35 minutes later)
10.25am BST10:25
Kit Juckes of French bank Société Générale is alarmed to see Britain’s current account deficit hitting a record high, at 5.5% of GDP.
He writes:
Trade balance improved, but the investment income balance didn’t. The regional current account deficit with the EU (£28.3bn) is particularly ugly.
It’s going to take years to turn these trend round, which are born of low investment returns in Europe vs the UK and the long-term erosion of the overall net foreign asset position of the UK. Needless to say, such a big balance of payments hole is unhelpful at a time of political uncertainty, reflective of a country living beyond its means and really scary if the UK, or global economies were to slow sharply.....
Not that it’s a new trend....
Annual UK Current Account (percentage of GDP) 1948-2014. pic.twitter.com/aUABFFvG2h
10.20am BST10:20
Here’s some early expert reaction to today’s UK GDP report
Real household disposable income per head, consumption per head and GDP per head now all above where they were at last election
Looks like real net disposable income per head is 0.2% up on Q2 2010, which is good, though other real income measures a bit of a way to go.
Per capita GDP, most simple proxy for living standards, still below crisis peak, but well above 2010 levels: pic.twitter.com/fa7pN2gpHa
10.16am BST10:16
Here’s a great chart showing unemployment in some of the eurozone’s larger economies over the last 25 years.
EZ unemployment rates pic.twitter.com/vnfti1hhqe
10.11am BST10:11
Eurozone unemployment at 11.3%
The Eurozone’s jobless rate was 11.3% in February, the lowest since May 2012 -- but also worse than expected.
Eurostat reports that unemployment across the euro area fell from 11.4% in January -- having revised up its previous estimate of 11.2%.
Unemployment across the wider EU dipped to 9.8% in February 2015, down from 9.9% in January 2015 and from 10.5% in February 2014.
According to Eurostat, the number of people unemployed in the euro area fell by 49,000 meaning 18.204m were out of work.
And, as usual, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Germany (4.8%) and Austria (5.3%), and the highest in Greece (26.0% in December 2014) and Spain (23.2%).
Eurozone unemployment at 11.3% in February: Greece: 26.0% Spain: 23.2% Italy: 12.7% France: 11.6% Germany: 4.8% http://t.co/llSUmcTYDe
10.03am BST10:03
Eurozone inflation rises to minus -0.1%
Just in: Prices across the eurozone fell by 0.1% this month, up from -0.3% in February.
Once again, falling energy prices dragged down the cost of living, while service sector and food costs are rising.
Eurostat explains:
Services is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (1.0%, compared with 1.2% in February), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (0.6%, compared with 0.5% in February), non-energy industrial goods (-0.1%, stable compared with February) and energy (-5.8%, compared with -7.9% in February).
Euro area annual inflation up to -0.1% in March 2015 - flash estimate from #Eurostat http://t.co/g8SLdY3BGS
9.59am BST09:599.59am BST09:59
Some political context:Some political context:
Past decade or so, UK quarterly economic growth: pic.twitter.com/tVHKegsmerPast decade or so, UK quarterly economic growth: pic.twitter.com/tVHKegsmer
9.59am BST09:599.59am BST09:59
Nice milestone RTRS-UK 2014 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE 5.5 PCT OF GDP, LARGEST DEFICIT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948Nice milestone RTRS-UK 2014 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE 5.5 PCT OF GDP, LARGEST DEFICIT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948
9.58am BST09:589.58am BST09:58
UK current account deficit hits record highUK current account deficit hits record high
Britain’s current account is not for the faint-hearted.Britain’s current account is not for the faint-hearted.
The deficit in Britain’s trade and overseas investments has hit 5.5% of GDP, which is the largest deficit since records began in 1948.The deficit in Britain’s trade and overseas investments has hit 5.5% of GDP, which is the largest deficit since records began in 1948.
So despite the recovery, the UK continues to import more than it exports, and is struggling to cover the gap with ‘invisible earnings’ and income from the assets it controls abroad..So despite the recovery, the UK continues to import more than it exports, and is struggling to cover the gap with ‘invisible earnings’ and income from the assets it controls abroad..
Current account deficits don't matter until they matter. And then they can matter a lot...Current account deficits don't matter until they matter. And then they can matter a lot...
Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, wrote recently about why this is such a concern:Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, wrote recently about why this is such a concern:
Related: UK’s current account deficit is worrying – and Osborne has no strategy to fix itRelated: UK’s current account deficit is worrying – and Osborne has no strategy to fix it
9.51am BST09:519.51am BST09:51
One note of caution, the UK economy is still effectively smaller than before the financial crisis struck, once you adjust for population changes.One note of caution, the UK economy is still effectively smaller than before the financial crisis struck, once you adjust for population changes.
So we’re individually worse of than before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Updated at 10.14am BST
9.47am BST09:479.47am BST09:47
The Conservative Party must be cheering the news that growth was a little faster than previously thought in the last quarter:The Conservative Party must be cheering the news that growth was a little faster than previously thought in the last quarter:
UK growth upward revision a timely boost for Cameron ahead of Thursdays #leadersdebate #GE2015UK growth upward revision a timely boost for Cameron ahead of Thursdays #leadersdebate #GE2015
9.46am BST09:469.46am BST09:46
Britain’s service sector led the way in the last quarter, with growth of 0.9%.Britain’s service sector led the way in the last quarter, with growth of 0.9%.
Industrial production rose by 0.2%, while construction output shrank by 2.2%.Industrial production rose by 0.2%, while construction output shrank by 2.2%.
9.41am BST09:419.41am BST09:41
UK GDP: The key chartUK GDP: The key chart
9.34am BST09:349.34am BST09:34
UK growth revised up to 0.6%UK growth revised up to 0.6%
Breaking: The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last three months of 2014, higher than the 0.5% previously estimated.Breaking: The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the last three months of 2014, higher than the 0.5% previously estimated.
The Office for National Statistics has also revised up its estimate for year-on-year GDP growth to 3.0%, up from 2.7%.The Office for National Statistics has also revised up its estimate for year-on-year GDP growth to 3.0%, up from 2.7%.
In addition, the ONS has also upped its estimate for GDP growth during 2014 as a whole, from 2.6% to 2.8% -- that’s the highest since 2006.In addition, the ONS has also upped its estimate for GDP growth during 2014 as a whole, from 2.6% to 2.8% -- that’s the highest since 2006.
And it means UK GDP is now 3.7% above its pre-crisis peak, before the financial crisis.And it means UK GDP is now 3.7% above its pre-crisis peak, before the financial crisis.
More good news! UK GDP was estimated to have increased by 2.8% in 2014 (revised up 0.2%) #GBPMore good news! UK GDP was estimated to have increased by 2.8% in 2014 (revised up 0.2%) #GBP
Updated at 9.49am BSTUpdated at 9.49am BST
9.28am BST09:289.28am BST09:28
Stock markets enjoy best quarter in yearsStock markets enjoy best quarter in years
European stock markets are on track for their strongest quarterly growth in many years, despite Greece’s debt problems.European stock markets are on track for their strongest quarterly growth in many years, despite Greece’s debt problems.
The launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme has helped fuel a remarkable stock market rally. Germany’s DAX has surged by 23% during 2015, which we think is the biggest quarterly jump since 2003.The launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme has helped fuel a remarkable stock market rally. Germany’s DAX has surged by 23% during 2015, which we think is the biggest quarterly jump since 2003.
The Italian FTSE MIB is close behind, up 22% despite the weakness of the Italian economy.The Italian FTSE MIB is close behind, up 22% despite the weakness of the Italian economy.
The wider FTSEurofirst 300, covering the biggest 300 companies across Europe, has gained almost 17% since the start of January.The wider FTSEurofirst 300, covering the biggest 300 companies across Europe, has gained almost 17% since the start of January.
That’s the best first-quarter performance in 17 years.That’s the best first-quarter performance in 17 years.
Europe stocks climb, head for best first-quarter gain since ’98Europe stocks climb, head for best first-quarter gain since ’98
The rally hasn’t been confined to Europe either. China’s stocks has been on an absolute tear, with more retail investors flocking to the market. More than a million new share-dealing accounts were opened last week alone in China.The rally hasn’t been confined to Europe either. China’s stocks has been on an absolute tear, with more retail investors flocking to the market. More than a million new share-dealing accounts were opened last week alone in China.
As Chris Weston of IG comments:As Chris Weston of IG comments:
This is a sentiment driven market and when you see a record 1.14 million new A-share accounts last week you know that rampant speculation is underway.This is a sentiment driven market and when you see a record 1.14 million new A-share accounts last week you know that rampant speculation is underway.
Of top 5 equity markets, only 1 is European (and it's not in eurozone) pic.twitter.com/TbiRy4v7eF http://t.co/x7WnVZIFpm pic.twitter.com/6heogPcKibOf top 5 equity markets, only 1 is European (and it's not in eurozone) pic.twitter.com/TbiRy4v7eF http://t.co/x7WnVZIFpm pic.twitter.com/6heogPcKib
(note: this graph is priced in US dollars, which dampens the size of Europe’s rally)(note: this graph is priced in US dollars, which dampens the size of Europe’s rally)
Updated at 9.54am BSTUpdated at 9.54am BST
9.15am BST09:159.15am BST09:15
Disappointment as Italian jobless rate risesDisappointment as Italian jobless rate rises
Hopes that Italy’s economy was healing have just taken a knock.Hopes that Italy’s economy was healing have just taken a knock.
Italy’s unemployment rate jumped to 12.7% in February, from 12.6% in January, new data shows.Italy’s unemployment rate jumped to 12.7% in February, from 12.6% in January, new data shows.
And the youth unemployment rate has spiked too, to 42.6% from 41.2% in January.And the youth unemployment rate has spiked too, to 42.6% from 41.2% in January.
That’s disappointing, given recent signs that Italian consumer confidence was rising after several years of recession or stagnation.That’s disappointing, given recent signs that Italian consumer confidence was rising after several years of recession or stagnation.
Italy's confidence up, Italy's unemployment up as well. The economy has stopped contracting, but still losing ground vis-a-vis its EU peersItaly's confidence up, Italy's unemployment up as well. The economy has stopped contracting, but still losing ground vis-a-vis its EU peers
9.06am BST09:069.06am BST09:06
German jobless rate hits record lowGerman jobless rate hits record low
Just in: Germany’s unemployment rate has hit a new all-time low of 6.4%, as Europe’s largest economy continues to recover.Just in: Germany’s unemployment rate has hit a new all-time low of 6.4%, as Europe’s largest economy continues to recover.
The seasonally adjusted jobless total has fallen by 15,000 this month, down to 2.798m. A bigger fall than expected.The seasonally adjusted jobless total has fallen by 15,000 this month, down to 2.798m. A bigger fall than expected.
*GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO RECORD LOW OF 6.4% IN MARCH *GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT FELL 15,000 IN MARCH; EST. 12,000 DROP*GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO RECORD LOW OF 6.4% IN MARCH *GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT FELL 15,000 IN MARCH; EST. 12,000 DROP
Updated at 9.16am BSTUpdated at 9.16am BST
8.44am BST08:448.44am BST08:44
Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First, confirms that the lack of progress over Greece’s economic reforms is hurting the euro today.Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First, confirms that the lack of progress over Greece’s economic reforms is hurting the euro today.
He writes:He writes:
Last night showed us that the Greek government and the European architects of Greece’s bailout program remain very far apart on what needs to be, and can be done for the former’s economy.Last night showed us that the Greek government and the European architects of Greece’s bailout program remain very far apart on what needs to be, and can be done for the former’s economy.
On every agenda item of what the austerity and bailout program needs, Greece disagrees. The program calls for a VAT increase on the tourism sector, the Greek government has said no. Pension reform has been shot down and public sector wages will remain protected.On every agenda item of what the austerity and bailout program needs, Greece disagrees. The program calls for a VAT increase on the tourism sector, the Greek government has said no. Pension reform has been shot down and public sector wages will remain protected.
The wider effect is that the budget surplus – the difference between what the government is spending and what it is receiving in the form of tax revenues – should be 3% of GDP in this year and 4% next year according to the program. Greece says they can do 1.5%.The wider effect is that the budget surplus – the difference between what the government is spending and what it is receiving in the form of tax revenues – should be 3% of GDP in this year and 4% next year according to the program. Greece says they can do 1.5%.
Updated at 8.44am BSTUpdated at 8.44am BST
8.31am BST08:318.31am BST08:31
Veteran investor Mark Mobius has offered Greece some much-needed solidarity today.Veteran investor Mark Mobius has offered Greece some much-needed solidarity today.
Mobius, who runs Templeton’s emerging markets fund, told Greek financial daily Naftemporik that:Mobius, who runs Templeton’s emerging markets fund, told Greek financial daily Naftemporik that:
“Greece will stay in the euro zone, there is no issue.....The stock market is cheap and we are buyers.”“Greece will stay in the euro zone, there is no issue.....The stock market is cheap and we are buyers.”
Templeton's #MarkMobius tells the Greek press "Greece will stay in the euro zone. The stock market is cheap and we are buyers."Templeton's #MarkMobius tells the Greek press "Greece will stay in the euro zone. The stock market is cheap and we are buyers."
8.21am BST08:218.21am BST08:21
Good news for the town of Swindon this morning – Japanese automaker Honda has announced a £200m upgrade to its car plant.Good news for the town of Swindon this morning – Japanese automaker Honda has announced a £200m upgrade to its car plant.
That means Swindon will be ready to produce the next-generation five-door Civic, calming fears over the factory’s future.That means Swindon will be ready to produce the next-generation five-door Civic, calming fears over the factory’s future.
Related: Honda unveils £200m upgrade to Swindon car plantRelated: Honda unveils £200m upgrade to Swindon car plant
8.17am BST08:178.17am BST08:17
Kingfisher to shut 60 B&Q storesKingfisher to shut 60 B&Q stores
In the UK, Kingfisher has announced it will close around 60 B&Q stores as new CEO Véronique Laury implements her plans for the company.In the UK, Kingfisher has announced it will close around 60 B&Q stores as new CEO Véronique Laury implements her plans for the company.
Laury is speaking to reporters now, saying she hopes the impact on jobs will be ‘neutral’; some workers can be redeployed, with Kingfisher also opening more Screwfix outlets.Laury is speaking to reporters now, saying she hopes the impact on jobs will be ‘neutral’; some workers can be redeployed, with Kingfisher also opening more Screwfix outlets.
A few loss-making stores in Europe are also being shut.A few loss-making stores in Europe are also being shut.
Karen Witts, chief financial officer, warned that the French market (which Laury used to run) remains tough:Karen Witts, chief financial officer, warned that the French market (which Laury used to run) remains tough:
“In the short term, whilst we remain encouraged by the improving economic backdrop in the UK, we remain cautious on the outlook for France, our biggest market.”“In the short term, whilst we remain encouraged by the improving economic backdrop in the UK, we remain cautious on the outlook for France, our biggest market.”
Kingfisher says doing notably better in UK than in France. But it's closing 60 stores in the UK...Kingfisher says doing notably better in UK than in France. But it's closing 60 stores in the UK...
The City likes the plan -- Kingfishers shares have jumped by 4.5% in early trading.The City likes the plan -- Kingfishers shares have jumped by 4.5% in early trading.
Updated at 8.17am BSTUpdated at 8.17am BST
8.04am BST08:048.04am BST08:04
Russia’s TASS news agency is running quotes from Alexis Tsipras, saying that Greece opposes the sanctions imposed on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict.Russia’s TASS news agency is running quotes from Alexis Tsipras, saying that Greece opposes the sanctions imposed on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict.
Bloomberg have picked them up too:Bloomberg have picked them up too:
*GREEK PM TSIPRAS SAYS COUNTRY OPPOSES RUSSIA SANCTIONS: TASS*GREEK PM TSIPRAS SAYS COUNTRY OPPOSES RUSSIA SANCTIONS: TASS
#Tsipras says #Greece can be bridge between Russia, West: Tass#Tsipras says #Greece can be bridge between Russia, West: Tass
It’s another reason to be cautious about the euro, suggests Ilya Spivak, Global Macro Strategist at DailyFX.com.It’s another reason to be cautious about the euro, suggests Ilya Spivak, Global Macro Strategist at DailyFX.com.
If the Tass report is accurate and Tsipras just broke rank with EU, might hint he sees nothing left to lose, i.e. no deal on bailoutIf the Tass report is accurate and Tsipras just broke rank with EU, might hint he sees nothing left to lose, i.e. no deal on bailout
7.58am BST07:587.58am BST07:58
The euro is likely to keep falling, thanks to Greece’s debt problems and the ECB’s new stimulus package.The euro is likely to keep falling, thanks to Greece’s debt problems and the ECB’s new stimulus package.
That’s according to Shusuke Yamada, a Tokyo-based currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who told Bloomberg that:That’s according to Shusuke Yamada, a Tokyo-based currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who told Bloomberg that:
“Markets are becoming more sensitive to the Greek issue.“Markets are becoming more sensitive to the Greek issue.
In addition, the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing is keeping downward pressure on the euro. Fundamentals point to euro selling.”In addition, the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing is keeping downward pressure on the euro. Fundamentals point to euro selling.”
7.45am BST07:457.45am BST07:45
Euro hit by Greek bailout brinkmanshipEuro hit by Greek bailout brinkmanship
The euro has fallen back this morning after Greece failed to agree a package of economic reforms with its lenders on Monday, as hoped.The euro has fallen back this morning after Greece failed to agree a package of economic reforms with its lenders on Monday, as hoped.
The single currency has fallen half a cent against the US dollar, hitting $1.078, as traders reacted to last night’s events in the Athens parliament, and the prospect of more deadlock ahead.The single currency has fallen half a cent against the US dollar, hitting $1.078, as traders reacted to last night’s events in the Athens parliament, and the prospect of more deadlock ahead.
Ready to rumble: EURUSD breaks below 1.0800. Now Euro trades at $1.0789. pic.twitter.com/3KsDLBvBH0Ready to rumble: EURUSD breaks below 1.0800. Now Euro trades at $1.0789. pic.twitter.com/3KsDLBvBH0
As we covered in last night’s liveblog, prime minister Alexis Tsipras insisted that he would not unconditionally surrender to Greece’s creditors. He declared:As we covered in last night’s liveblog, prime minister Alexis Tsipras insisted that he would not unconditionally surrender to Greece’s creditors. He declared:
It is true that we are seeking an honest compromise with our lenders but don’t expect an unconditional agreement from us.”It is true that we are seeking an honest compromise with our lenders but don’t expect an unconditional agreement from us.”
Tsipras vowed to stop ‘the bleeding’ in Greece, and repeatedly argued that the country needs a new debt restructuring deal. Greece has a simple choice, he argued, between surrendering, or changing the policies that have caused such economic misery.Tsipras vowed to stop ‘the bleeding’ in Greece, and repeatedly argued that the country needs a new debt restructuring deal. Greece has a simple choice, he argued, between surrendering, or changing the policies that have caused such economic misery.
He pledged to end the ‘pillaging’ of the middle classes, and revealed that a new clampdown on unpaid taxes had already delivered €100m.He pledged to end the ‘pillaging’ of the middle classes, and revealed that a new clampdown on unpaid taxes had already delivered €100m.
But his speech lacked clear details about the reform plan that Greece is putting together in negotiations with its creditors over the last few days.But his speech lacked clear details about the reform plan that Greece is putting together in negotiations with its creditors over the last few days.
Tsipras also urged opposition politicians to back him, but was criticised by former PM Antonis Samara for damaging Greece’s relations with the rest of Europe and threatening the recovery.Tsipras also urged opposition politicians to back him, but was criticised by former PM Antonis Samara for damaging Greece’s relations with the rest of Europe and threatening the recovery.
ND's Samaras tells Greek govt: 'We will support you, but not on anything. If you push the country back to recession and deficits, we won’t'ND's Samaras tells Greek govt: 'We will support you, but not on anything. If you push the country back to recession and deficits, we won’t'
Samaras says Tsipras imagined he'd get money without terms but ended up getting terms without money #GreeceSamaras says Tsipras imagined he'd get money without terms but ended up getting terms without money #Greece
Analysts fear that Greece will run out of cash this month unless it receives a cash injection from its lenders.Analysts fear that Greece will run out of cash this month unless it receives a cash injection from its lenders.
As Jonathan Sudaria of Capital Spreads puts it:As Jonathan Sudaria of Capital Spreads puts it:
“The brinkmanship continues as both sides continue to stare at each other over the political void. Despite Greece hurtling towards bankruptcy, an agreement continues to evade.”“The brinkmanship continues as both sides continue to stare at each other over the political void. Despite Greece hurtling towards bankruptcy, an agreement continues to evade.”
Ian Williams of Peel Hunt agrees, saying:Ian Williams of Peel Hunt agrees, saying:
The euro is under renewed pressure on persistent concerns about Greece.The euro is under renewed pressure on persistent concerns about Greece.
7.43am BST07:437.43am BST07:43
The Agenda: Eurozone inflation and unemployment data dueThe Agenda: Eurozone inflation and unemployment data due
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
There’s a lot of talk at present that Europe’s economy is healing, and we’ll get a proper healthcheck today with new inflation data for this month, and the February unemployment report, both at 10am BST.There’s a lot of talk at present that Europe’s economy is healing, and we’ll get a proper healthcheck today with new inflation data for this month, and the February unemployment report, both at 10am BST.
Economists predict that eurozone prices fell by just 0.1% year-on-year, an improvement on February’s 0.3% decline. If so, this period of negative inflation (or “DEFLATION!!” if you have alarmist tendencies) may be ending, now oil prices appear to have stabilised.Economists predict that eurozone prices fell by just 0.1% year-on-year, an improvement on February’s 0.3% decline. If so, this period of negative inflation (or “DEFLATION!!” if you have alarmist tendencies) may be ending, now oil prices appear to have stabilised.
The eurozone jobless rate, though, is expected to hover around 11.2%, around twice the level in the UK and US. And we’ll probably see the usual sharp regional differences, with Germany’s economy improving and Italy lagging behind.The eurozone jobless rate, though, is expected to hover around 11.2%, around twice the level in the UK and US. And we’ll probably see the usual sharp regional differences, with Germany’s economy improving and Italy lagging behind.
We also get the third estimate of UK GDP for the fourth quarter of last year, probably confirming that growth slowed to 0.5%. There’ll also be new details of how the economy fared during the quarter. That’s at 9.30am BST.We also get the third estimate of UK GDP for the fourth quarter of last year, probably confirming that growth slowed to 0.5%. There’ll also be new details of how the economy fared during the quarter. That’s at 9.30am BST.
And overshadowing everything is Greece, which has still to agree a programme of economic reforms with its creditors.And overshadowing everything is Greece, which has still to agree a programme of economic reforms with its creditors.
I’ll be tracking all the main events through the day....I’ll be tracking all the main events through the day....
Updated at 8.57am BSTUpdated at 8.57am BST