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Conservative Gains in Local Elections Leave Left-Leaning Parties Adrift in France | |
(about 2 hours later) | |
PARIS — In the aftermath of balloting on Sunday, conservatives in France were well positioned to build momentum before the presidential election in 2017, political analysts said Monday. | PARIS — In the aftermath of balloting on Sunday, conservatives in France were well positioned to build momentum before the presidential election in 2017, political analysts said Monday. |
The elections for thousands of local council members in 98 of France’s departments amounted to a rebuke of the Socialists, who were ousted by conservatives from control of 28 departments — some they had dominated for more than 30 years. | The elections for thousands of local council members in 98 of France’s departments amounted to a rebuke of the Socialists, who were ousted by conservatives from control of 28 departments — some they had dominated for more than 30 years. |
The steady advances by conservative forces appear to have set adrift France’s political left, leaving it fractured and uncertain about how to regain popular support while the French economy remains lackluster. | The steady advances by conservative forces appear to have set adrift France’s political left, leaving it fractured and uncertain about how to regain popular support while the French economy remains lackluster. |
“If the economic context remains the same or gets worse, there will be no change from what we saw in these elections,” said Thomas Guénolé, a political science lecturer at Sciences Po. | “If the economic context remains the same or gets worse, there will be no change from what we saw in these elections,” said Thomas Guénolé, a political science lecturer at Sciences Po. |
“Apparently the right-wing centrist bloc would win most of the contests and the left-wing progressives would lose most of them,” he said, referring to regional elections, which will be held in December. | “Apparently the right-wing centrist bloc would win most of the contests and the left-wing progressives would lose most of them,” he said, referring to regional elections, which will be held in December. |
The far-right National Front did not win control of any departments, but took 22 percent of the popular vote. But the person who appeared most eager to claim victory in the elections was the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who described the vote which brought his coalition of conservative parties control of 67 of the 98 departments as a “disavowal” of the Socialist-led government. | The far-right National Front did not win control of any departments, but took 22 percent of the popular vote. But the person who appeared most eager to claim victory in the elections was the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who described the vote which brought his coalition of conservative parties control of 67 of the 98 departments as a “disavowal” of the Socialist-led government. |
Many political analysts had wondered when Mr. Sarkozy could return to political life after his defeat by President François Hollande in 2012 especially with a plethora of lawsuits against him. Then last year he became the alternative to warring factions within his own party and seized control of the conservative Union for a Popular Movement. More recently Mr. Sarkozy has formed alliances with other center-right parties for this election — a move that helped clinch Sunday’s victory. | Many political analysts had wondered when Mr. Sarkozy could return to political life after his defeat by President François Hollande in 2012 especially with a plethora of lawsuits against him. Then last year he became the alternative to warring factions within his own party and seized control of the conservative Union for a Popular Movement. More recently Mr. Sarkozy has formed alliances with other center-right parties for this election — a move that helped clinch Sunday’s victory. |
Whether that puts him in position to run again for president is not yet clear. Analysts said it was too early to predict, but there was no question he was back on the political stage and at least superficially in a powerful position. However, they added, he will have a hard road ahead. | Whether that puts him in position to run again for president is not yet clear. Analysts said it was too early to predict, but there was no question he was back on the political stage and at least superficially in a powerful position. However, they added, he will have a hard road ahead. |
“He has to deal with something that is very difficult in terms of political tactics: he has to lure back those voters who drifted to the National Front but he also has to keep the centrist voters,” said Jean-Yves Camus, the director of the Observatory of Radical Politics. “It’s very tricky politically.” | “He has to deal with something that is very difficult in terms of political tactics: he has to lure back those voters who drifted to the National Front but he also has to keep the centrist voters,” said Jean-Yves Camus, the director of the Observatory of Radical Politics. “It’s very tricky politically.” |
Added to that, Mr. Sarkozy is not personally popular and it is not yet clear that he will be able to persuade fellow conservative politicians to back him for the presidency again. Nonetheless, for now he appears to be the dominant voice of the opposition to the Socialist government. | Added to that, Mr. Sarkozy is not personally popular and it is not yet clear that he will be able to persuade fellow conservative politicians to back him for the presidency again. Nonetheless, for now he appears to be the dominant voice of the opposition to the Socialist government. |
His party’s position has long appealed to French business interests who support free trade and a free market but is somewhat conservative on social issues. Personally Mr. Sarkozy has taken increasingly harder line positions on such social issues as the Muslim veil and has pledged to rewrite same-sex marriage laws in order to stop gays from becoming parents. | His party’s position has long appealed to French business interests who support free trade and a free market but is somewhat conservative on social issues. Personally Mr. Sarkozy has taken increasingly harder line positions on such social issues as the Muslim veil and has pledged to rewrite same-sex marriage laws in order to stop gays from becoming parents. |
The National Front is likely to do better in the year-end regional elections because of differences in the voting system, Mr. Camus said. While the party managed to gain only 62 council member seats from among the 4,108 that were voted for on Sunday, they won more than a fifth of the popular vote, suggesting that if they maintain that level of support they could do very well in nationwide elections, he said. | The National Front is likely to do better in the year-end regional elections because of differences in the voting system, Mr. Camus said. While the party managed to gain only 62 council member seats from among the 4,108 that were voted for on Sunday, they won more than a fifth of the popular vote, suggesting that if they maintain that level of support they could do very well in nationwide elections, he said. |
“It was still an excellent performance,” he said. “The number of seats did not reflect the percentage that they won.” | “It was still an excellent performance,” he said. “The number of seats did not reflect the percentage that they won.” |
Despite the results, the leaders of the Socialists, the largest of the left-leaning parties, appeared initially unwilling to change either their policies or the people running key government departments. | Despite the results, the leaders of the Socialists, the largest of the left-leaning parties, appeared initially unwilling to change either their policies or the people running key government departments. |
While acknowledging that the Socialists had lost, the prime minister, Manuel Valls, attempted to reassure voters that the Socialist policies were the right ones. | While acknowledging that the Socialists had lost, the prime minister, Manuel Valls, attempted to reassure voters that the Socialist policies were the right ones. |
“Our economy is doing better thanks to the reform that we’ve implemented to improve the competitiveness of our companies, to support industry and encourage innovation,” Mr. Valls said. | “Our economy is doing better thanks to the reform that we’ve implemented to improve the competitiveness of our companies, to support industry and encourage innovation,” Mr. Valls said. |
The problem with his strategy is that there has been little, if any, improvement in the job market, leaving many French people frustrated and feeling economically uncertain. And, there is little likelihood that there will be a major improvement before the end of the year when the next round of elections will be held, said Mr. Guénolé, the professor at Sciences Po. | The problem with his strategy is that there has been little, if any, improvement in the job market, leaving many French people frustrated and feeling economically uncertain. And, there is little likelihood that there will be a major improvement before the end of the year when the next round of elections will be held, said Mr. Guénolé, the professor at Sciences Po. |
And for the Socialist government to not show voters some effort at change is “electorally speaking, purely suicidal,” he said. | And for the Socialist government to not show voters some effort at change is “electorally speaking, purely suicidal,” he said. |
Another loser on the left was the dwindling Communist Party, which has in the past played a role in several left-leaning coalition governments, but in Sunday’s ballot lost one of the two departments they controlled and earned just 100,000 votes nationwide, barely a half percent of those who voted. | Another loser on the left was the dwindling Communist Party, which has in the past played a role in several left-leaning coalition governments, but in Sunday’s ballot lost one of the two departments they controlled and earned just 100,000 votes nationwide, barely a half percent of those who voted. |