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U.S., Britain fear possible ‘political interference’ in Nigerian election U.S., Britain fear possible ‘political interference’ in Nigerian election
(about 2 hours later)
KADUNA, Nigeria — The United States and Britain said Monday that Nigeria's election results “may be subject to deliberate political interference,” a harsh warning issued just as the official count began to trickle in. KADUNA, NIGERIA — The United States and Britain said Monday that Nigeria’s election results “may be subject to deliberate political interference,” a harsh warning issued just as the official vote count began in a crucial election for Africa’s most populous country.
The joint statement from Secretary of State John F. Kerry and British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond there were “disturbing indications” that such interference had marred Saturday’s bitterly contested race. The statement from Secretary of State John F. Kerry and British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said there were “disturbing indications” that such interference would mar the bitterly contested race.
The final results are expected Monday or Tuesday. The country’s election commission began releasing its state-by-state tally on Monday afternoon. The vote marks a pivotal moment for Africa’s largest democracy and the region as a whole. The final election results from Saturday’s election are expected Tuesday, but concerns of fraud could delay the process. The country’s election commission started releasing its state-by-state tally of vote counts on Monday afternoon, but it later announced that it would investigate allegations of electoral fraud in at least one state.
Many worry that an election perceived as fraudulent could lead to violence, in a reprise of events that occurred after the 2011 vote, when hundreds were killed in the northern state of Kaduna, where voters split between the two main parties. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said voting had been “largely peaceful and orderly.” The vote marks a pivotal moment for this democracy of 170 million and for the region as a whole. Many observers worry that an election perceived as fraudulent could lead to violence and bitter divisions in the country as it takes on a persistent insurgency and long-standing economic problems.
[Read: Who are the two candidates running to become the president of Nigeria?][Read: Who are the two candidates running to become the president of Nigeria?]
The theme of the election was woven throughout Yohanna Buru’s Palm Sunday sermon at Christ Evangelical Church. He knew that in Kaduna, violence could emerge along a religious fault line, just as in 2011, when mosques and churches were attacked. After the 2011 vote, hundreds of people were killed in clashes in the northern state of Kaduna, where staunch supporters of both parties live in close proximity. Those elections were riddled with problems, but the race was not nearly as tight as it is this year.
“As they conclude the election, we pray for peace,” he told his congregation, which sat under a large white tent. Nigerian politics is still largely divided along religious and geographic lines. President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the south, and challenger Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim from the north, were expected to do well in their traditional strongholds. But frustration with the current administration, which in some places cuts across those divides, might give Buhari an upper hand.
The results of Saturday’s poll are expected Monday, but glitches in the electoral process could delay the announcement. With about 15 million votes tabulated, about half of the total, Buhari was ahead of Jonathan by roughly 2 million votes. But the vote counts from several states key to Jonathan’s campaign still had not been announced.
On Monday, an outbreak of violence in Kaduna provided a sign of the kind of trouble many Nigerians fear. Soldiers shot into a crowd of young men on the side of the road here, killing one and wounding four, witnesses said. The body of 20-year-old Omar Abdul Bakar, covered in a blue shroud, was carried to a nearby mosque.
The men said the incident began after they had closed the gate to a private road leading into their community, fearing that outsiders angry about the election results could enter. When the soldiers demanded entrance, the clash erupted.
“We don’t understand what these soldiers are doing, except trying to kill us,” said Abbas Abdullahi as he stood near the body of Bakar, his friend. He said the situation was tense. “Everything is heightened because of the elections.”
About 100 yards away, a crowd of soldiers stood outside their vehicles.
“There is a report of military involvement, and we are investigating,” said one officer, who would not give his name because he was not authorized to speak to the news media. “Everything is volatile in this area during times of political crisis.”
For now, the shooting in Kaduna appeared to be an isolated case of election-linked violence. But many here voiced concerns about unrest after the election results are announced, no matter who is declared the winner.
[Read: 4 reasons you should care about Nigeria’s election][Read: 4 reasons you should care about Nigeria’s election]
On Sunday, supporters of opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari, a former military dictator, staged a protest in the southern state of Rivers, alleging that election officials there had colluded with the ruling party to rig the election. The head of the election commission, Attahiru Jega, said he was “concerned” about the allegations. “The ordinary people will go to the street. It’s a mob mentality,” said Shehu Sani, a senator, referring to what might happen if Jonathan is announced the winner in an election considered fraudulent by the opposition.
The election was delayed by six weeks to make room for a multinational counter­­offensive against the Islamist militant group Boko Haram. But while that operation appears to have been successful, it will be up to the next president — Buhari or the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan — to root out the militants from their rural hideouts. The group been waging a insurgency for about six years. Sani was watching the count closely to see the fate of his party’s presidential candidate, Buhari, a former military dictator.
Crucial economic challenges lie ahead, too, as the price of oil, which has for years buoyed the country’s economy, falls, and Nigeria’s institutions remain plagued by corruption. If Buhari is declared the victor, many worry about possible violence in the oil-producing south. Militants in the region have already warned that they won’t accept such a result.
For now, both sides in the race are adamant that their candidate won. “It will be a great internal nation-building challenge to convince people in the Niger Delta that he is everyone’s president and that the age of divisiveness over,” said Carl LeVan, a Nigeria expert at American University.
At a site where ballots were counted Saturday, Ayok Daadanboy, a representative of Buhari’s party, was so pleased with the results from his corner of Kaduna that he left to buy a bottle of champagne. An incumbent has never lost a presidential election in the 16 years since Nigeria transitioned from military rule. As results trickled in, many Nigerians watched on television and scrolled through their social media feeds to get the latest information. In Kaduna, few businesses opened as residents braced for a strong public reaction.
“The celebration is going to be huge,” he said. The joint American and British statement said there had been no signs of “systemic ma­nipu­la­tion of the [electoral] process,” but that there were “disturbing indications” that the vote counting could be tainted by political interference. It didn’t suggest the scale of the possible fraud or name the parties who might be responsible.
A few miles away, in a Christian neighborhood where Jonathan supporters dominate, people spoke with the same confidence. Femi Fani-Kayode, a spokesman for Jonathan’s party, told reporters that its members “completely reject the assertion or the notion that we are in any way interfering” with the electoral commission, the Associated Press reported.
“It’s impossible that Goodluck will lose,” said Justin Daniel, a university student. The National Democratic Institute (NDI), a Washington group that provided international election observers for the Nigeria election, called the process “peaceful and orderly,” adding in a statement that “no significant disenfranchisement was observed on election day.”
Although both candidates signed a “peace pact,” pledging to avoid post-election violence, some of their supporters have suggested that things could devolve. Buhari’s party, the All Progressives Congress, called the election in southern Rivers state “a sham and a charade,” alleging that its voters were intimidated by “armed militias.”
“The pact was just ceremonious,” said Abdullahi Bayaro, a trader. “We can see on social media that the [All Progressives Congress] will win. If they don’t, there will be chaos,” he added, referring to Buhari’s party. Voting was delayed by six weeks as the government launched an offensive against the extremist group Boko Haram. But while that operation — backed by Niger, Cameroon and Chad — appears to have driven the Islamist militants from important strongholds in the north, it will be up to the next president to root out the militants from their rural hideouts.
Many voters, including Bayaro, spent their day scrolling through commentary on Twitter and Facebook, including posts recounting party-led efforts to tabulate the results early. Others watched the endless local television coverage of the election or held portable radios to their ears, waiting for a more official announcement. Over 10,000 people have been killed in violence related to Boko Haram in recent years.
At his home, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, who was running for governor of Kaduna, sat with supporters who scoured all forms of media for any sign of the election results. Rufai, in a white Harvard sweater (he graduated with a master’s degree in public administration), appeared confident of victory. But he knew how volatile elections can be.
“There can be a mob mentality,” he said. “The passion I have seen can be hard to contain.”
Still, Rufai and other leaders of both parties encouraged their followers to remain civil after the election results are announced. And in Kaduna, they hoped that voters had learned from the disaster of 2011.
“Election day was peaceful,” said Buru, the pastor. “And we pray that it will remain that way.”
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