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| Battleground Britain: for Ealing the election is about the least bad option | Battleground Britain: for Ealing the election is about the least bad option |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Sitting in a brightly lit meeting room not far from her home in west London, lifelong Labour voter Becca Abbott pauses before answering the question. | Sitting in a brightly lit meeting room not far from her home in west London, lifelong Labour voter Becca Abbott pauses before answering the question. |
| “I am really torn because on the one hand I want to vote with my heart and vote for the Green party,” said the 58-year-old. “However, will that vote just be wasted? So I am thinking of voting Labour which is how I have always voted … it is a real dilemma.” | “I am really torn because on the one hand I want to vote with my heart and vote for the Green party,” said the 58-year-old. “However, will that vote just be wasted? So I am thinking of voting Labour which is how I have always voted … it is a real dilemma.” |
| Like many Londoners, Abbott, who lost her job as a personal assistant in 2013, is concerned about rising inequality, the cost of housing, the privatisation of the NHS and the environment. She is exactly the sort of progressive voter the main parties need to win over if they are to prosper in the capital on 7 May. | Like many Londoners, Abbott, who lost her job as a personal assistant in 2013, is concerned about rising inequality, the cost of housing, the privatisation of the NHS and the environment. She is exactly the sort of progressive voter the main parties need to win over if they are to prosper in the capital on 7 May. |
| Tucking into a fish and chips lunch in a nearby cafe, Rupa Huq, the Labour candidate for Abbott’s Ealing and Acton constituency, is clear about what is at stake if she loses these voters to the Greens. | Tucking into a fish and chips lunch in a nearby cafe, Rupa Huq, the Labour candidate for Abbott’s Ealing and Acton constituency, is clear about what is at stake if she loses these voters to the Greens. |
| “A Tory majority government is a real possibility and people need to think about what that would mean for London, for Londoners,” said Huq, who is fighting to overturn a Tory majority of almost 4,000. “When people say it doesn’t matter who you vote for, in this election, in this seat, in this city, it really will.” | “A Tory majority government is a real possibility and people need to think about what that would mean for London, for Londoners,” said Huq, who is fighting to overturn a Tory majority of almost 4,000. “When people say it doesn’t matter who you vote for, in this election, in this seat, in this city, it really will.” |
| Abbott, who has spent the past two years in poorly paid and precarious part-time jobs, is one of 12 people recruited for the last of five focus groups organised by qualitative polling firm BritainThinks, working in partnership with the Guardian, to examine five key battleground seats and the larger political themes that will help decide the election. In the coming weeks, she and her colleagues will help track the party’s efforts to win over the progressive vote in the capital. | Abbott, who has spent the past two years in poorly paid and precarious part-time jobs, is one of 12 people recruited for the last of five focus groups organised by qualitative polling firm BritainThinks, working in partnership with the Guardian, to examine five key battleground seats and the larger political themes that will help decide the election. In the coming weeks, she and her colleagues will help track the party’s efforts to win over the progressive vote in the capital. |
| London – which has 73 of the 650 House of Commons seats up for grabs – is set to be a key general election battleground. But the fight in the capital will be different. Politically – as in most other respects – London is increasingly a place apart. | London – which has 73 of the 650 House of Commons seats up for grabs – is set to be a key general election battleground. But the fight in the capital will be different. Politically – as in most other respects – London is increasingly a place apart. |
| “There will undoubtedly be different priorities and different challenges because, essentially, the electorate in London is increasingly unlike that in the rest of the country,” said Tony Travers, from the London School of Economics, who has been a keen observer of London politics for 40 years. | “There will undoubtedly be different priorities and different challenges because, essentially, the electorate in London is increasingly unlike that in the rest of the country,” said Tony Travers, from the London School of Economics, who has been a keen observer of London politics for 40 years. |
| The demographics back this up. Compared to the rest of the UK, London is younger, with an average age of 34 (compared to 40 nationally), and more diverse – with 40% of residents classed as “non-white”, compared to 14% nationally. People are more likely to have been born abroad and, in some key respects such as attitudes to immigration, they are more liberal. | The demographics back this up. Compared to the rest of the UK, London is younger, with an average age of 34 (compared to 40 nationally), and more diverse – with 40% of residents classed as “non-white”, compared to 14% nationally. People are more likely to have been born abroad and, in some key respects such as attitudes to immigration, they are more liberal. |
| These trends have benefited Labour in recent elections. In London, it exceeded its national performance in 2010 and gained a swath of councillors in last year’s local elections as the other parties floundered. | These trends have benefited Labour in recent elections. In London, it exceeded its national performance in 2010 and gained a swath of councillors in last year’s local elections as the other parties floundered. |
| And as some of its traditional support migrates from central London to the outer boroughs in search of affordable housing, former Tory strongholds suddenly appear to be within the party’s reach. | And as some of its traditional support migrates from central London to the outer boroughs in search of affordable housing, former Tory strongholds suddenly appear to be within the party’s reach. |
| But despite the positive signs, Labour faces new challenges in the capital. Two key parts of its coalition are under threat: younger, middle class, left-leaning liberals are being tempted by a resurgent Green party, and there are tentative signs that its grip on some parts of the ethnic minority vote is weakening. | But despite the positive signs, Labour faces new challenges in the capital. Two key parts of its coalition are under threat: younger, middle class, left-leaning liberals are being tempted by a resurgent Green party, and there are tentative signs that its grip on some parts of the ethnic minority vote is weakening. |
| In a relatively youthful city, there is also the challenge of persuading young people that Westminster politics has any relevance to them. | In a relatively youthful city, there is also the challenge of persuading young people that Westminster politics has any relevance to them. |
| In the foyer of Portcullis House in the heart of Westminster, Sadiq Khan, who is tasked with galvanising Labour’s push in London and seeing off the threat from the Greens, acknowledged the task ahead. | In the foyer of Portcullis House in the heart of Westminster, Sadiq Khan, who is tasked with galvanising Labour’s push in London and seeing off the threat from the Greens, acknowledged the task ahead. |
| But he said there has been a quiet revolution in Labour’s “ground operation”, with the party machine in the capital now better organised and more effective than ever before. | But he said there has been a quiet revolution in Labour’s “ground operation”, with the party machine in the capital now better organised and more effective than ever before. |
| “Over the last two years, we we have been involved in a long process of turning maybes into supporters, supporters into members, members into activists, activists into candidates. We now have more than 40,000 members – a huge increase ,” he said. | “Over the last two years, we we have been involved in a long process of turning maybes into supporters, supporters into members, members into activists, activists into candidates. We now have more than 40,000 members – a huge increase ,” he said. |
| The Greens said they now have more than 10,000 members in the capital; the Tories and Liberal Democrats said the figures were not available, although both claim overall membership is up. | The Greens said they now have more than 10,000 members in the capital; the Tories and Liberal Democrats said the figures were not available, although both claim overall membership is up. |
| Tom Chance, the co-chair of the Green party in London, grudgingly acknowledged Labour’s ominously effective “ground campaign”. Whenever the Greens make a breakthrough, he said, the area is suddenly swamped with Labour activists. | Tom Chance, the co-chair of the Green party in London, grudgingly acknowledged Labour’s ominously effective “ground campaign”. Whenever the Greens make a breakthrough, he said, the area is suddenly swamped with Labour activists. |
| “Labour in London are very, very strong and very well organised so it is hard work,” said Chance, a one-time environmental campaigner who is standing for the Greens in Lewisham West and Penge. | “Labour in London are very, very strong and very well organised so it is hard work,” said Chance, a one-time environmental campaigner who is standing for the Greens in Lewisham West and Penge. |
| Related: London offers Labour chance of big gains at general election, says poll | |
| “But the big increase in the numbers of people joining us over the past few months and the sense on the doorstep that voters are less tribal gives us real ground for optimism.” | “But the big increase in the numbers of people joining us over the past few months and the sense on the doorstep that voters are less tribal gives us real ground for optimism.” |
| The “Green surge” is not likely to see the party win any seats in London in May. But it might affect the outcome in several key seats – including Ealing and Acton – where there is a straight shootout between Labour and the Conservatives. | The “Green surge” is not likely to see the party win any seats in London in May. But it might affect the outcome in several key seats – including Ealing and Acton – where there is a straight shootout between Labour and the Conservatives. |
| “There is very little enthusiasm for Labour on the doorstep and really the main motivation driving people towards them is a tactical vote. I sympathise with that and I have voted tactically in the past but I got fed up of it, and in the end the only way you are going to get the politics you want is by voting for it,” said Chance. | |
| Robert Ford, a senior politics lecturer at the University of Manchester, said the Green party could cause problems for Labour and is particularly attractive to young, highly educated, cosmopolitan liberal idealists. He said Labour faces an added dilemma. If it attempts to stop its supporters turning to Ukip elsewhere in the UK by being tough on immigration, it risks alienating its core London vote. “Any policy which appeals to voters at one pole will anger those at the other,” he said. | Robert Ford, a senior politics lecturer at the University of Manchester, said the Green party could cause problems for Labour and is particularly attractive to young, highly educated, cosmopolitan liberal idealists. He said Labour faces an added dilemma. If it attempts to stop its supporters turning to Ukip elsewhere in the UK by being tough on immigration, it risks alienating its core London vote. “Any policy which appeals to voters at one pole will anger those at the other,” he said. |
| The BritainThinks verdict | The BritainThinks verdict |
| We found strong disenchantment with the political class and current politics. There also seemed to be less party loyalty than in many other constituencies: our panellists had often switched between different parties and were more open to smaller parties, eg Greens (and even Ukip). | We found strong disenchantment with the political class and current politics. There also seemed to be less party loyalty than in many other constituencies: our panellists had often switched between different parties and were more open to smaller parties, eg Greens (and even Ukip). |
| There was general support for the idea of a protest vote (and ‘none of the above’ option). However, despite the attraction of the protest and giving smaller parties serious consideration, the majority were leaning toward Labour or Conservative. | There was general support for the idea of a protest vote (and ‘none of the above’ option). However, despite the attraction of the protest and giving smaller parties serious consideration, the majority were leaning toward Labour or Conservative. |
| The debate about how to vote focused on the relative value of voting with your head or your heart. But the perceived certainty of a Labour/Conservative win in Ealing, as well as disappointing recent bloopers or scandals affecting the smaller parties, focused most of our panellists’ minds on the two largest parties. | The debate about how to vote focused on the relative value of voting with your head or your heart. But the perceived certainty of a Labour/Conservative win in Ealing, as well as disappointing recent bloopers or scandals affecting the smaller parties, focused most of our panellists’ minds on the two largest parties. |
| For them, deciding between Labour and Conservative was a case of identifying the least bad option rather than a positive choice. | For them, deciding between Labour and Conservative was a case of identifying the least bad option rather than a positive choice. |
| While Labour fights to keep its coalition of BME voters and left-leaning liberals intact, the Conservatives’ priority appears to be to hold on to the seats they won in 2010 and maybe take one seat from Labour and a couple from the beleaguered Liberal Democrats in south-west London. | While Labour fights to keep its coalition of BME voters and left-leaning liberals intact, the Conservatives’ priority appears to be to hold on to the seats they won in 2010 and maybe take one seat from Labour and a couple from the beleaguered Liberal Democrats in south-west London. |
| Polls suggest the Tory party in London is lagging behind its national performance and the Lib Dem vote in the capital appears to be imploding. | Polls suggest the Tory party in London is lagging behind its national performance and the Lib Dem vote in the capital appears to be imploding. |
| The Conservatives are hampered by a stark lack of support among ethnic minority voters: just 16% of BME voters backed the party in 2010, compared to 68% who supported Labour. | The Conservatives are hampered by a stark lack of support among ethnic minority voters: just 16% of BME voters backed the party in 2010, compared to 68% who supported Labour. |
| Related: Battleground Britain: getting inside the minds of the UK’s undecided voters | Related: Battleground Britain: getting inside the minds of the UK’s undecided voters |
| Of course one Tory – Boris Johnson – has successfully conquered London not once but twice. However, Johnson is widely seen as winning despite being a Tory, and analysts say his success has not won him significant support from the BME community. | Of course one Tory – Boris Johnson – has successfully conquered London not once but twice. However, Johnson is widely seen as winning despite being a Tory, and analysts say his success has not won him significant support from the BME community. |
| As Ben Page, from Ipsos Mori, put it: “Normally, class is hugely important in British politics, but in the last two mayoral elections that Boris won race was the best predictor of how a ward would vote, rather than class. There was a clear correlation – the whiter the ward, even if it was working class, the better Boris did.” | As Ben Page, from Ipsos Mori, put it: “Normally, class is hugely important in British politics, but in the last two mayoral elections that Boris won race was the best predictor of how a ward would vote, rather than class. There was a clear correlation – the whiter the ward, even if it was working class, the better Boris did.” |
| With the ethnic minority vote becoming ever more important in UK elections – particularly in London – Johnson’s may not be a formula many London Tories choose to emulate. | With the ethnic minority vote becoming ever more important in UK elections – particularly in London – Johnson’s may not be a formula many London Tories choose to emulate. |
| In the kitchen of his north London terrace, Johnson’s old foe Ken Livingstone takes a different view on how to be successful in the capital. | In the kitchen of his north London terrace, Johnson’s old foe Ken Livingstone takes a different view on how to be successful in the capital. |
| Overlooking his prized garden, the doyen of London politics, who has been fighting elections in the capital for more than a quarter of a century, said you don’t succeed by slicing and dicing voters into different interest groups and then coming up with policies that may appeal to them. | Overlooking his prized garden, the doyen of London politics, who has been fighting elections in the capital for more than a quarter of a century, said you don’t succeed by slicing and dicing voters into different interest groups and then coming up with policies that may appeal to them. |
| “The simple fact is the diversity of London is so great it is impossible to try and develop policies based on what might appeal to one group or another,” said Livingstone, who is campaigning for Ed Miliband. “What you have to do is work out what you really believe, stick to it, campaign on those issues and be straight with people.” | “The simple fact is the diversity of London is so great it is impossible to try and develop policies based on what might appeal to one group or another,” said Livingstone, who is campaigning for Ed Miliband. “What you have to do is work out what you really believe, stick to it, campaign on those issues and be straight with people.” |