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| International football: what to look out for this weekend | International football: what to look out for this weekend |
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| 1) Spain must be wary of Ukraine’s wide sharpshooters | 1) Spain must be wary of Ukraine’s wide sharpshooters |
| Group C looked likely to be a doddle for Spain and Uefa’s decision to bloat the tournament means that, despite their early setback in Slovakia, it may still be. It would take a disaster for the Slovakians against Luxembourg to wrest them from top spot on Friday but Vicente Del Bosque’s reshaped side would take a firm grip on second place with three points against Ukraine. The visitors, most of whose squad play in a domestic league that has been compromised by the conflict in the country’s south-east, have seen off Belarus, Macedonia and Luxembourg unfussily enough and have genuine star quality in the form of their two wingers. Yevhen Konoplyanka’s gifts are sufficiently known by now and the popular focus on Andriy Yarmolenko has intensified since his marvellous goal for Dynamo Kyiv against Everton last week. You would need the best part of £40m to take these two, probably the most explosive wide pair in Europe, to one of the continent’s top leagues and scouts will be interested to see how they make the most of what possession Ukraine are allowed in Seville. Yarmolenko scored a hat-trick against Luxembourg and has been in superb form in front of goal over the past year. In the absence of Diego Costa, Spain have nobody as prolific and may have to rely on their midfielders – Isco and David Silva were in good form late last year – to break the stubborn Ukrainians down. NA | Group C looked likely to be a doddle for Spain and Uefa’s decision to bloat the tournament means that, despite their early setback in Slovakia, it may still be. It would take a disaster for the Slovakians against Luxembourg to wrest them from top spot on Friday but Vicente Del Bosque’s reshaped side would take a firm grip on second place with three points against Ukraine. The visitors, most of whose squad play in a domestic league that has been compromised by the conflict in the country’s south-east, have seen off Belarus, Macedonia and Luxembourg unfussily enough and have genuine star quality in the form of their two wingers. Yevhen Konoplyanka’s gifts are sufficiently known by now and the popular focus on Andriy Yarmolenko has intensified since his marvellous goal for Dynamo Kyiv against Everton last week. You would need the best part of £40m to take these two, probably the most explosive wide pair in Europe, to one of the continent’s top leagues and scouts will be interested to see how they make the most of what possession Ukraine are allowed in Seville. Yarmolenko scored a hat-trick against Luxembourg and has been in superb form in front of goal over the past year. In the absence of Diego Costa, Spain have nobody as prolific and may have to rely on their midfielders – Isco and David Silva were in good form late last year – to break the stubborn Ukrainians down. NA |
| Related: From Danilo to Lacazette: youngsters to watch this international week | Tor-Kristian Karlsen | Related: From Danilo to Lacazette: youngsters to watch this international week | Tor-Kristian Karlsen |
| • Costa set to miss out for Spain but will be back for Chelsea• Xavi reportedly set to leave Barcelona for Qatari club Al Sadd | • Costa set to miss out for Spain but will be back for Chelsea• Xavi reportedly set to leave Barcelona for Qatari club Al Sadd |
| 2) Gibbs should start for England against Lithuania | 2) Gibbs should start for England against Lithuania |
| Of late, Roy Hodgson has left people scratching their heads like a kid with lice. First it was his choice of Javier Mascherano for the Ballon d’Or and then it was his decision to omit Ryan Bertrand from his England squad. Bertrand has been an integral part of the best defence in the Premier League and is arguably the best left-back in the league right now. But out he is, just like Danny Rose and Luke Shaw, leaving Hodgson with two choices for the position: Kieran Gibbs or Leighton Baines. Last season there would have been no arguments over who started as Baines enjoyed one of his best spells as an Everton player. This season is a different story though. Baines, like many of his team-mates, has lost touch with his form and is struggling to recover it. Gibbs, despite injuries and often losing his place to Nacho Monreal, has been solid when he has played and his pace on the counter, as it did in the win over Slovenia, could cause plenty of problems for a Lithuania side that say they will not be parking the bus in front of the Wembley goal. Gibbs is not the long-term solution – that is Bertrand – but he deserves to start this one. IMC | Of late, Roy Hodgson has left people scratching their heads like a kid with lice. First it was his choice of Javier Mascherano for the Ballon d’Or and then it was his decision to omit Ryan Bertrand from his England squad. Bertrand has been an integral part of the best defence in the Premier League and is arguably the best left-back in the league right now. But out he is, just like Danny Rose and Luke Shaw, leaving Hodgson with two choices for the position: Kieran Gibbs or Leighton Baines. Last season there would have been no arguments over who started as Baines enjoyed one of his best spells as an Everton player. This season is a different story though. Baines, like many of his team-mates, has lost touch with his form and is struggling to recover it. Gibbs, despite injuries and often losing his place to Nacho Monreal, has been solid when he has played and his pace on the counter, as it did in the win over Slovenia, could cause plenty of problems for a Lithuania side that say they will not be parking the bus in front of the Wembley goal. Gibbs is not the long-term solution – that is Bertrand – but he deserves to start this one. IMC |
| • ‘Kane is an inspiration to all the young England players coming through’• Stankevicius insists Lithuania ‘will not park the bus’ against England• Hart shelves Messi heroics as Lithuania’s unknown quantities await• Dyke tries to dampen speculation on Hodgson’s England future | • ‘Kane is an inspiration to all the young England players coming through’• Stankevicius insists Lithuania ‘will not park the bus’ against England• Hart shelves Messi heroics as Lithuania’s unknown quantities await• Dyke tries to dampen speculation on Hodgson’s England future |
| 3) Hiddink and Holland need Willems at left-back | 3) Hiddink and Holland need Willems at left-back |
| If Holland want to make it to France next summer, without facing the perils of the play-offs, Guus Hiddink should make Jetro Willems his first-choice left-back. Willems is having a storming season for PSV. He is quick, strong in the tackle, his range of passing is impressive and he has the most assists in the Eredivisie this season. Playing him allows Daley Blind to move into midfield, making Holland a better balanced side, as well as more of a threat on the left. This Saturday, the Czechs will beat Latvia and Iceland should beat Kazakhstan, so the pressure is on Holland to defeat Turkey. That will be tricky because Turkey have lost only one of their last five competitive away games; because three key players – Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie and Ron Vlaar – are missing; and because Holland have not quite clicked under the reversion to 4-3-3. See the Iceland defeat for further details. However, there has been one game in which they have excelled in that formation and that was the hammering of Latvia. The left back that day? One Jetro Willems. IMC | If Holland want to make it to France next summer, without facing the perils of the play-offs, Guus Hiddink should make Jetro Willems his first-choice left-back. Willems is having a storming season for PSV. He is quick, strong in the tackle, his range of passing is impressive and he has the most assists in the Eredivisie this season. Playing him allows Daley Blind to move into midfield, making Holland a better balanced side, as well as more of a threat on the left. This Saturday, the Czechs will beat Latvia and Iceland should beat Kazakhstan, so the pressure is on Holland to defeat Turkey. That will be tricky because Turkey have lost only one of their last five competitive away games; because three key players – Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie and Ron Vlaar – are missing; and because Holland have not quite clicked under the reversion to 4-3-3. See the Iceland defeat for further details. However, there has been one game in which they have excelled in that formation and that was the hammering of Latvia. The left back that day? One Jetro Willems. IMC |
| • Van Persie left out of Holland squad for upcoming fixtures• From Danilo to Lacazette: youngsters to watch this international week | • Van Persie left out of Holland squad for upcoming fixtures• From Danilo to Lacazette: youngsters to watch this international week |
| 4) Bale has his big chance in a surprising Group B | 4) Bale has his big chance in a surprising Group B |
| Gareth Bale may be the scapegoat of choice for the suffocatingly entitled circus that follows Real Madrid around, but his importance to Wales is rarely doubted and he will know as well as anyone that Saturday’s match against Israel in Haifa screams “opportunity”. Group B looks misshapen at this point, with Bosnia & Herzegovina stalling badly early on and Belgium taking time to build momentum. Draws for Wales against both suggested an ability to dig in for the long haul this time and a positive result in perhaps their biggest test yet would leave them wonderfully placed at the halfway stage. A top-of-the-table clash between these two would usually prompt a double-take but the Israelis are bearing the fruit of manager Eli Guttman’s hard work over the past four years and, in Tal Ben Haim (not that one) and the RB Leipzig forward Omer Damari they have a flourishing pair of attacking players. They blew the Bosnians away in their last home fixture and another win here would give the impression that, even though they are still to face Belgium twice, they are an excellent bet for the top two. Wales will take heart, though, in the manner of their battling goalless draw in Brussels – a match in which Bale twice came close from free-kicks. Israel certainly do not have a player like Bale and, should he need an outlet for any frustration after last weekend’s Clásico disappointment, then Wales could just place a tentative tiptoe in their first major tournament since 1958. NA | Gareth Bale may be the scapegoat of choice for the suffocatingly entitled circus that follows Real Madrid around, but his importance to Wales is rarely doubted and he will know as well as anyone that Saturday’s match against Israel in Haifa screams “opportunity”. Group B looks misshapen at this point, with Bosnia & Herzegovina stalling badly early on and Belgium taking time to build momentum. Draws for Wales against both suggested an ability to dig in for the long haul this time and a positive result in perhaps their biggest test yet would leave them wonderfully placed at the halfway stage. A top-of-the-table clash between these two would usually prompt a double-take but the Israelis are bearing the fruit of manager Eli Guttman’s hard work over the past four years and, in Tal Ben Haim (not that one) and the RB Leipzig forward Omer Damari they have a flourishing pair of attacking players. They blew the Bosnians away in their last home fixture and another win here would give the impression that, even though they are still to face Belgium twice, they are an excellent bet for the top two. Wales will take heart, though, in the manner of their battling goalless draw in Brussels – a match in which Bale twice came close from free-kicks. Israel certainly do not have a player like Bale and, should he need an outlet for any frustration after last weekend’s Clásico disappointment, then Wales could just place a tentative tiptoe in their first major tournament since 1958. NA |
| • Allen positive Wales can further European dream with result in Israel • Wales rally to Bale’s cause as they prepare for Israel game | • Allen positive Wales can further European dream with result in Israel • Wales rally to Bale’s cause as they prepare for Israel game |
| 5) Another opportunity for Germany to test a different approach | 5) Another opportunity for Germany to test a different approach |
| “There’s always room to improve,” said the German coach, Joachim Löw, and he is right. His side have been poor since returning from Brazil. Knowing Germany’s strengths, sides are sitting deep, crowding the middle of the pitch and hitting them on the counter, so improvement for Löw means finding another route to goal. There has been talk of a switch to a back three and on paper, it would seem like a sensible move. Few international sides play with more than one striker and Germany have plenty of talented, ball-playing backs that can fill the defensive roles. Crucially, that system would afford them more width when attacking and all of the German midfielders have the range of passing that can find runs out wide. Löw tested it out against Australia with mixed results but Georgia will prove to be more willing opponents should he experiment with it once more. IMC | “There’s always room to improve,” said the German coach, Joachim Löw, and he is right. His side have been poor since returning from Brazil. Knowing Germany’s strengths, sides are sitting deep, crowding the middle of the pitch and hitting them on the counter, so improvement for Löw means finding another route to goal. There has been talk of a switch to a back three and on paper, it would seem like a sensible move. Few international sides play with more than one striker and Germany have plenty of talented, ball-playing backs that can fill the defensive roles. Crucially, that system would afford them more width when attacking and all of the German midfielders have the range of passing that can find runs out wide. Löw tested it out against Australia with mixed results but Georgia will prove to be more willing opponents should he experiment with it once more. IMC |
| • Match report: Germany 2-2 Australia• Jedinak wants more from Socceroos despite holding Germany• Özil: ‘I’m convinced I can win the Ballon D’Or’ | • Match report: Germany 2-2 Australia• Jedinak wants more from Socceroos despite holding Germany• Özil: ‘I’m convinced I can win the Ballon D’Or’ |
| 6) O’Neill needs to find the right balance in midfield for Polish test | 6) O’Neill needs to find the right balance in midfield for Polish test |
| Shay Given was wrong when he said the game against Poland was not a must win but a “must-not-lose”. Should Ireland come away with anything less than three points, the cutting adrift will have begun. To ensure this does not occur, Martin O’Neill needs to find the right balance to his midfield. Poland are a tough side to break down and have shown that they can soak up immense amounts of pressure before devastating on the counter. Picking Wes Hoolahan would provide Ireland with a player who has the skills to unpick a defence but he is unlikely to be tracking back and making last-ditch tackles. So should Hoolahan play, he will need Glenn Whelan and James McCarthy behind him, closing down space and suffocating the supply to the forwards. Against Germany, Jakub Wawrzyniak found it hard to keep up with Karim Bellarabi, meaning O’Neill would be wise to have Aiden McGeady and James McClean on the flanks, switching sides, trying to find a way past Poland’s weak spot. IMC | Shay Given was wrong when he said the game against Poland was not a must win but a “must-not-lose”. Should Ireland come away with anything less than three points, the cutting adrift will have begun. To ensure this does not occur, Martin O’Neill needs to find the right balance to his midfield. Poland are a tough side to break down and have shown that they can soak up immense amounts of pressure before devastating on the counter. Picking Wes Hoolahan would provide Ireland with a player who has the skills to unpick a defence but he is unlikely to be tracking back and making last-ditch tackles. So should Hoolahan play, he will need Glenn Whelan and James McCarthy behind him, closing down space and suffocating the supply to the forwards. Against Germany, Jakub Wawrzyniak found it hard to keep up with Karim Bellarabi, meaning O’Neill would be wise to have Aiden McGeady and James McClean on the flanks, switching sides, trying to find a way past Poland’s weak spot. IMC |
| • Republic of Ireland’s McClean an injury worry for Euro 2016 qualifier | • Republic of Ireland’s McClean an injury worry for Euro 2016 qualifier |
| 7) Brazil can use ‘home’ comforts to show that they are back | 7) Brazil can use ‘home’ comforts to show that they are back |
| Emirates Stadium used to be informally marketed at Brazil’s “European home”, such was the frequency with which they convened in north London for friendlies at this time of year. It was still never enough to win Denilson a cap but the Seleção look in such rude health at the moment that they would probably look comfortable pinging the ball about at Bloomfield Road. You wonder what a difference eight months has made as Dunga’s side pass, pass, passed their way around on Thursday night at Stade de France, recovering from going a goal down to outplay the home team and come out deserved 3-1 winners. That made it seven wins in a row since the World Cup humiliation and it is not as if they have opted for the flat track in order to feel good – Colombia and Argentina were among those disposed of in the autumn. The fact that Dunga waited 84 minutes to make Brazil’s first change in Paris suggested that the side are treating their road to redemption with deadly seriousness and it will be interesting to see who starts against Chile, whose 2-0 defeat to Iran is surely not indicative of the challenge they will pose in north London on Sunday. Perhaps he will give a debut to Arsenal’s Gabriel, whose tussle with Alexis Sánchez would add some local intrigue and good humour to proceedings. Either way, there is a sense that Brazil might genuinely be worth watching again. NA | Emirates Stadium used to be informally marketed at Brazil’s “European home”, such was the frequency with which they convened in north London for friendlies at this time of year. It was still never enough to win Denilson a cap but the Seleção look in such rude health at the moment that they would probably look comfortable pinging the ball about at Bloomfield Road. You wonder what a difference eight months has made as Dunga’s side pass, pass, passed their way around on Thursday night at Stade de France, recovering from going a goal down to outplay the home team and come out deserved 3-1 winners. That made it seven wins in a row since the World Cup humiliation and it is not as if they have opted for the flat track in order to feel good – Colombia and Argentina were among those disposed of in the autumn. The fact that Dunga waited 84 minutes to make Brazil’s first change in Paris suggested that the side are treating their road to redemption with deadly seriousness and it will be interesting to see who starts against Chile, whose 2-0 defeat to Iran is surely not indicative of the challenge they will pose in north London on Sunday. Perhaps he will give a debut to Arsenal’s Gabriel, whose tussle with Alexis Sánchez would add some local intrigue and good humour to proceedings. Either way, there is a sense that Brazil might genuinely be worth watching again. NA |
| • Brazil come from behind to end France’s unbeaten run in Paris friendly• From Danilo to Lacazette: youngsters to watch this international week | • Brazil come from behind to end France’s unbeaten run in Paris friendly• From Danilo to Lacazette: youngsters to watch this international week |
| 8) Italy’s oriundi can prove Mancini wrong | 8) Italy’s oriundi can prove Mancini wrong |
| When the Italy squad was announced, Roberto Mancini was not happy. There were three new players in it – Mirko Valdifiori, Éder and Franco Vázquez – the last two of whom are oriundi, immigrants of native ancestry. “Those who were not born in Italy,” he said, “even if they have [Italian] relatives, don’t deserve [to play for Italy].” The former Italy manager Marcello Lippi disagreed. “As long as the rules are respected, I don’t see what the problem is.” That’s the thing. The rules are being respected and the trio are eligible. That is where that conversation should end and the one about whether they are good enough should start. Both are, but in a tight group Antonio Conte will not take the risk of starting all of them against Bulgaria. Vázquez seems the most likely to get the nod. In his attacking midfield role, he has been Palermo’s shining star this season. In an interview this week, Lippi compared him to Zinedine Zidane. Live up to that comparison and even the likes of Mancini might change their mind. IMC | |
| • Sacchi and Italian football’s ethical dilemma about foreign players | • Sacchi and Italian football’s ethical dilemma about foreign players |
| 9) Northern Ireland need to be more aggressive in attack | 9) Northern Ireland need to be more aggressive in attack |
| Come Sunday, the Free Presbyterian Church will take to the area around Windsor Park to protest against what they call “a violation of the sanctity of the Lord’s Day”, or, in other words, an international match being played on that day. It is a small, if somewhat sour, footnote to the game and hopefully it will not distract from Northern Ireland’s positive campaign so far. With four games played, they are a point and a spot behind the group leaders, Romania, a position that leaves them well-placed to qualify for the European Championships for the first time. This weekend’s match against Finland is crucial in that respect and Michael O’Neill’s side cannot afford to be as timid against Finland as they were in their 1-0 defeat to Scotland on Wednesday night. Their defensive approach made tactical sense at Hampden, but Finland, who are without a win in three matches and without a goal in two, will need to be broken down, so O’Neill must make his side more aggressive in attack. Starting with two up front rather packing the midfield is the way to go. IMC | Come Sunday, the Free Presbyterian Church will take to the area around Windsor Park to protest against what they call “a violation of the sanctity of the Lord’s Day”, or, in other words, an international match being played on that day. It is a small, if somewhat sour, footnote to the game and hopefully it will not distract from Northern Ireland’s positive campaign so far. With four games played, they are a point and a spot behind the group leaders, Romania, a position that leaves them well-placed to qualify for the European Championships for the first time. This weekend’s match against Finland is crucial in that respect and Michael O’Neill’s side cannot afford to be as timid against Finland as they were in their 1-0 defeat to Scotland on Wednesday night. Their defensive approach made tactical sense at Hampden, but Finland, who are without a win in three matches and without a goal in two, will need to be broken down, so O’Neill must make his side more aggressive in attack. Starting with two up front rather packing the midfield is the way to go. IMC |
| • Match report: Scotland 1-0 Northern Ireland | • Match report: Scotland 1-0 Northern Ireland |
| 10) Can Gibraltar put up a fight at Hampden? | 10) Can Gibraltar put up a fight at Hampden? |
| Gibraltar’s introduction to the international scene has not been the happiest. Early friendly results gave encouragement but successive 7-0 defeats in qualifying by Poland and Republic of Ireland were brutal and it felt like a victory when, much to Joachim Löw’s displeasure, they restricted Germany to four goals in Nuremburg last November. That was not enough to save the manager Allen Bula’s job and it seems a long time since those wide-eyed days when he was targeting a play-off place. How far football on the Rock can realistically go is open to question – with a national stadium of their own nowhere near fruition they currently play home games four hours away in Faro and are exploring ways of moving their base to London for the next campaign – but their appearance at Hampden Park will at least be cause for celebration. It will be Gibraltar’s first game against another of the home nations and should be particularly special for the incoming coach (and Bula’s ex-assistant) David Wilson, a Glaswegian who was a youth team player at Kilmarnock. There is little doubt that Scotland, who had a crash course in beating ultra-defensive opponents when Northern Ireland visited on Wednesday, will prevail and strengthen their position in a fascinatingly-poised Group D but it would be as well to see, too, that Gibraltar are beginning to put up a fight at this level. NA | Gibraltar’s introduction to the international scene has not been the happiest. Early friendly results gave encouragement but successive 7-0 defeats in qualifying by Poland and Republic of Ireland were brutal and it felt like a victory when, much to Joachim Löw’s displeasure, they restricted Germany to four goals in Nuremburg last November. That was not enough to save the manager Allen Bula’s job and it seems a long time since those wide-eyed days when he was targeting a play-off place. How far football on the Rock can realistically go is open to question – with a national stadium of their own nowhere near fruition they currently play home games four hours away in Faro and are exploring ways of moving their base to London for the next campaign – but their appearance at Hampden Park will at least be cause for celebration. It will be Gibraltar’s first game against another of the home nations and should be particularly special for the incoming coach (and Bula’s ex-assistant) David Wilson, a Glaswegian who was a youth team player at Kilmarnock. There is little doubt that Scotland, who had a crash course in beating ultra-defensive opponents when Northern Ireland visited on Wednesday, will prevail and strengthen their position in a fascinatingly-poised Group D but it would be as well to see, too, that Gibraltar are beginning to put up a fight at this level. NA |
| • Gibraltar sack Bula weeks prior to Scotland game | • Gibraltar sack Bula weeks prior to Scotland game |
| 11) Capello is running out of time to freshen Russia up | 11) Capello is running out of time to freshen Russia up |
| Fabio Capello has not found the Russians to be reliable paymasters since taking the national team job in 2012, and the Arsenal shareholder Alisher Usmanov bankrolled £3.9m in back payments to the former England coach last month after the Russian Football Union fell short. The value for money provided by Capello has been a long-running debate though, not least since Russia’s sterile World Cup showing, and there has been little since then to suggest Usmanov will be moved to similar levels of largesse. A draw in Sweden was a reasonable enough follow-up to beating Liechtenstein but their two qualifiers since have seen defeat in Austria and a poor home draw with Moldova. They sit third in Group G before Saturday’s game in Montenegro and, with Sweden and Austria facing Moldova and Liechtenstein, need a positive result to stay close to the top two. A scan of Russia’s squad shows little beyond the same old names and Montenegro, who deserved their draw against the Swedes in November, could hasten further embarrassment for the World Cup 2018 hosts with a win. Capello is contracted until that tournament but failure to instil any forward momentum in the Russians over the next 12 months might make a hulking pay-off – whoever that might be funded by – seem worth it. NA | Fabio Capello has not found the Russians to be reliable paymasters since taking the national team job in 2012, and the Arsenal shareholder Alisher Usmanov bankrolled £3.9m in back payments to the former England coach last month after the Russian Football Union fell short. The value for money provided by Capello has been a long-running debate though, not least since Russia’s sterile World Cup showing, and there has been little since then to suggest Usmanov will be moved to similar levels of largesse. A draw in Sweden was a reasonable enough follow-up to beating Liechtenstein but their two qualifiers since have seen defeat in Austria and a poor home draw with Moldova. They sit third in Group G before Saturday’s game in Montenegro and, with Sweden and Austria facing Moldova and Liechtenstein, need a positive result to stay close to the top two. A scan of Russia’s squad shows little beyond the same old names and Montenegro, who deserved their draw against the Swedes in November, could hasten further embarrassment for the World Cup 2018 hosts with a win. Capello is contracted until that tournament but failure to instil any forward momentum in the Russians over the next 12 months might make a hulking pay-off – whoever that might be funded by – seem worth it. NA |
| 12) Portugal can see off the competition with win over Serbia | 12) Portugal can see off the competition with win over Serbia |
| Some of the early shocks in these qualifiers have been fun, and none raised the eyebrows more sharply than Portugal’s home defeat to Albania in Group I. But the Portuguese have rallied since then – even if Cristiano Ronaldo had to drag them over the line against Armenia and in Denmark – and will find themselves in the curious position of being virtually home and hosed at the halfway stage if they beat Serbia in Lisbon. Nobody would say Fernando Santos’s team is playing well (although a win over Argentina in November augurs positively) but they might have expected some opposition in the group from a young, talented Serbia side until October’s depressing scenes in Belgrade saw them effectively deducted three points. The Serbs have one point from their three games, and defeat on Sunday would leave them eight points behind Portugal. Albania, in third, may keep things interesting by beating Armenia but the likelihood of their sustaining a challenge for the top two over eight games seems slim. You sense that Portugal are going to cruise through this group by something verging on default, which is not a scenario that would speak well of a system that is perfectly set up to give the bigger countries a second and third bite of the cherry. NA | Some of the early shocks in these qualifiers have been fun, and none raised the eyebrows more sharply than Portugal’s home defeat to Albania in Group I. But the Portuguese have rallied since then – even if Cristiano Ronaldo had to drag them over the line against Armenia and in Denmark – and will find themselves in the curious position of being virtually home and hosed at the halfway stage if they beat Serbia in Lisbon. Nobody would say Fernando Santos’s team is playing well (although a win over Argentina in November augurs positively) but they might have expected some opposition in the group from a young, talented Serbia side until October’s depressing scenes in Belgrade saw them effectively deducted three points. The Serbs have one point from their three games, and defeat on Sunday would leave them eight points behind Portugal. Albania, in third, may keep things interesting by beating Armenia but the likelihood of their sustaining a challenge for the top two over eight games seems slim. You sense that Portugal are going to cruise through this group by something verging on default, which is not a scenario that would speak well of a system that is perfectly set up to give the bigger countries a second and third bite of the cherry. NA |
| This article was amended on 27 March to reflect the fact that Luke Shaw has pulled out of the England squad and that Mirko Valdifiori was born in Italy | This article was amended on 27 March to reflect the fact that Luke Shaw has pulled out of the England squad and that Mirko Valdifiori was born in Italy |