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No One Sees Easy Way Out on Ukraine Fragile Cease-Fire in Ukraine Inspires Little Confidence in West
(6 days later)
BRUSSELS — Hardly anyone expects Ukraine to get better before it gets worse, or for the latest set of commitments in last month’s cease-fire agreement to be kept. BRUSSELS — No one really expects Ukraine to get better before it gets worse, or for the promises contained in last month’s cease-fire agreement to be kept.
Instead, senior Western diplomats and analysts are predicting a further escalation of tensions, including the placing of Russian nuclear weapons in newly annexed Crimea; more unrest in cities like Mariupol and even Odessa; more advances by Russian-supported rebels against an under-gunned and dispirited Ukrainian Army; and attempts to destabilize the Western-leaning government in Kiev, beginning with President Petro O. Poroshenko. Instead, senior Western diplomats and analysts are predicting a further escalation of tensions, including the placing of Russian nuclear weapons in the annexed Crimean Peninsula; efforts to create more unrest in cities like Mariupol and as far west as Odessa; advances by Russian-supported rebels against an undergunned and dispirited Ukrainian Army; and attempts to destabilize the Western-leaning government in Kiev, beginning with President Petro O. Poroshenko himself.
Mr. Poroshenko, weakened by the loss of Crimea and a large, contiguous chunk of eastern Ukraine, faces Western demands for economic overhauls, increased energy prices and a crackdown on corruption to justify billions in loans and aid. He also confronts new challenges from oligarchs like Igor V. Kolomoisky over control of energy companies and private militias with flexible loyalties to the state, or what’s left of it. Mr. Poroshenko, already weakened by the loss of Crimea and a large, contiguous chunk of eastern Ukraine, faces increased energy prices, a crackdown on corruption to justify billions of dollars in loans and aid, and Western demands for economic reform. He is also confronting a new challenge from Ukrainian oligarchs like Igor V. Kolomoisky over control of energy companies and private militias financed by wealthy people with flexible loyalties to the state, or what is left of it.
The West, which claims to be united, is actually divided over Russia’s actions in Ukraine and how to respond. The West, which seems united, is actually divided over Russia’s actions in Ukraine and what to do about them.
Having hailed the revolution in Kiev as a defeat for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the United States and Europe are indeed united in one matter: refusing to defend Ukraine militarily. Having hailed the revolution at the Maidan in Kiev, and the flight of former President Viktor F. Yanukovych in February 2014, as a victory for democracy and a defeat for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the United States and Europe are united on one matter: their refusal to consider military defense of Ukraine.
But they disagree on much else: whether to provide Kiev with arms; whether to give Kiev massive economic aid and for what benchmarks; whether the cease-fire agreement reached in Minsk, Belarus, last month is being implemented. But they disagree on much else: whether to give Kiev arms, defensive or lethal; whether Ukraine should receive more economic aid, and in return for what benchmarks or promises; and whether the cease-fire agreed to last month in Minsk, the capital of neighboring Belarus, is being carried out.
The disputes were clear this week at the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels Forum. Those disagreements were clear this month at the annual Brussels Forum of the German Marshall Fund, which brings together top officials from the United States and Europe.
Europeans, led by Germany and France, oppose supplying even defensive arms to Kiev, believing it would prompt Russian escalation. European nations — led by Germany and France, which negotiated with Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko in Minsk — oppose giving Kiev even defensive arms, arguing that it would inflame the situation and provide justification for Russian escalation.
Washington is not convinced. Nor is the NATO supreme commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, who said that the West must respond to Russia’s continuing supply of troops and arms to the rebels. The West “should consider all our tools in reply,” he said. “Could it be destabilizing? The answer is yes. Also inaction could be destabilizing. Is inaction an appropriate action?” But Washington is not convinced. Nor is NATO’s supreme commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, who said the West must respond to Russia’s active supply of advanced weapons and troops to the rebels, which is undermining confidence in European security. “We, I think, in the West should consider all our tools in reply,” he said. “Could it be destabilizing? The answer is yes. Also, inaction could be destabilizing. Is inaction an appropriate action?”
General Breedlove’s outspokenness and readiness to publicize evidence of Russian intervention have not endeared him to European officials or some in Washington who do not want to be pushed into difficult decisions. General Breedlove’s outspokenness and willingness to publicize photographs of continuing Russian intervention in Ukraine have not endeared him to German officials or to some in Washington, who do not want to be pushed into making difficult decisions.
Europeans say that key elements of the Minsk agreement, like the withdrawal of heavy weapons, are proceeding; American officials disagree. “We continue to see disturbing evidence of air defense, command and control, resupply equipments coming across a completely porous border, so there are concerns whether Minsk is being followed or not,” General Breedlove said. While European officials generally say that the cease-fire is holding and that elements of the Minsk agreement, like the withdrawal of heavy weapons, are proceeding, American officials disagree. “We continue to see disturbing evidence of air defense, command and control, resupply equipments coming across a completely porous border, so there are concerns whether Minsk is being followed or not,” General Breedlove said in the face of Russian denials.
Victoria Nuland, assistant secretary of state for European affairs, said the pro-Russian separatists possessed more sophisticated weapons than the Ukrainian Army. “We’ve seen, month on month, more lethal weaponry of a higher caliber” brought into Ukraine, she said. Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary of state for European affairs, said the Russian-supported separatists possessed far better and more sophisticated military equipment than the Ukrainian Army. “We’ve seen, month on month, more lethal weaponry of a higher caliber” from “separatist Russian allies” entering Ukraine, she said. “The No. 1 thing is for Russia to stop sending arms over the border so we can have real politics.”
“The No. 1 thing,” she added, “is for Russia to stop sending arms over the border so we can have real politics.” European Union officials have agreed to extend financial sanctions in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. But the bloc’s high representative for foreign affairs, Federica Mogherini, has said she will lift the sanctions against Russia, a neighbor and trading partner to the European Union, as soon as feasible, while acknowledging here in Brussels, “It depends on the situation on the ground.”
The European Union has rolled over financial sanctions against Moscow, but its foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, wants to lift sanctions, though subject to “the situation on the ground.” Russia faces large loan payments by year’s end that amount to a third of its foreign-currency reserves, making some officials wonder whether it will escalate or try to accommodate, hoping to get the European sanctions lifted.
Russia faces large loan payments by year’s end that exceed its foreign-currency reserves, making some officials wonder whether Moscow will escalate or try to accommodate, hoping to get European Union sanctions lifted. Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former American national security adviser, expressed pessimism. Predicting the placement of Russian nuclear weapons in Crimea, he said, “I’m not sure that, at this stage, we have succeeded in convincing the Russians that we are prepared to deter the kind of steps they are adopting.”
Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former American national security adviser, is not sanguine. Predicting Russian nuclear weapons in Crimea, he said, “I’m not sure that at this stage we have succeeded in convincing the Russians that we are prepared to deter the kind of steps they are adopting.” Mr. Brzezinski said he wanted to balance deterrence and accommodation, but suggested that “the Russians may pursue an assertive policy towards Ukraine just far enough to avoid a military confrontation but produce the result of the total collapse of the Ukrainian economy, the wasting of billions of dollars that came from the West.” Despite the sanctions, he said, Russia “remains a major power and therefore achieves a major change in the geopolitical situation in Europe.”
He wants to balance deterrence and accommodation, but he suggests instead that “the Russians may pursue an assertive policy towards Ukraine just far enough to avoid a military confrontation but produce the result of the total collapse of the Ukrainian economy, the wasting of billions of dollars.” Despite sanctions, Russia “remains a major power and therefore achieves a major change in the geopolitical situation in Europe.”