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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Labour expected to gain in northern England, but Ukip lurks in wait | Labour expected to gain in northern England, but Ukip lurks in wait |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| The Labour party is expected to make substantial gains in the north of England at the general election, polls suggest. | The Labour party is expected to make substantial gains in the north of England at the general election, polls suggest. |
| An aggregate of subsamples in recent ICM/Guardian polling shows Labour on 46%, up eight points on its 2010 vote share, when the results for the north-east, north-west, and Yorkshire and the Humber are combined. | An aggregate of subsamples in recent ICM/Guardian polling shows Labour on 46%, up eight points on its 2010 vote share, when the results for the north-east, north-west, and Yorkshire and the Humber are combined. |
| The Conservatives are unchanged on 31%; the Liberal Democrats have plummeted 15 points to 7%, and even party leader Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam seat is at risk – Ukip, currently polling 10%, is in third place. | |
| Although Ukip may well not win any seats in northern England - and we know that the muscle of its campaign operation is concentrated in the eastern and south-eastern constituencies where it has a greater chance – the main achievement of Nigel Farage’s party at this election will be to deprive the Conservatives of key votes in many marginal constituencies, improving Labour’s chances. | |
| Labour’s best chances of gains in the north | Labour’s best chances of gains in the north |
| Most of these constituencies are in the north-west, including Bury North, Chester, Warrington South and Wirral West. | Most of these constituencies are in the north-west, including Bury North, Chester, Warrington South and Wirral West. |
| It would be an error to cast Ukip as a protest party | It would be an error to cast Ukip as a protest party |
| The rise of Ukip is bad news for Labour, as well as the Conservatives. | The rise of Ukip is bad news for Labour, as well as the Conservatives. |
| Earlier this year, a Manchester University academic, Robert Ford, predicted that Ukip could finish in second place in 100 seats around the country. Strategists for Farage’s party believe that they could get 100 second places in the north alone. | |
| According to constituency polls, Ukip will finish behind Labour (by lesser or greater margins) in a broad selection of seats. These include Burnley, Great Grimsby, Redcar, Rother Valley, Rotherham and Ed Miliband’s constituency, Doncaster North. | According to constituency polls, Ukip will finish behind Labour (by lesser or greater margins) in a broad selection of seats. These include Burnley, Great Grimsby, Redcar, Rother Valley, Rotherham and Ed Miliband’s constituency, Doncaster North. |
| The main expectation is that Ukip will take votes from the Conservatives – and it is likely to hit David Cameron’s party the hardest. However, a sizeable minority of Ukip’s support has come from disenchanted Labour voters. | |
| The Fabian Society’s Revolt on the Left report last year showed that many of those switching to Farage’s party were typified by economic anxiety – and would traditionally have backed leftwing parties. In fact, many Ukip supporters who voted Tory in 2010 were Labour voters before that. | The Fabian Society’s Revolt on the Left report last year showed that many of those switching to Farage’s party were typified by economic anxiety – and would traditionally have backed leftwing parties. In fact, many Ukip supporters who voted Tory in 2010 were Labour voters before that. |
| This analysis is backed by data from YouGov. The company has looked at the difference between those who came from the Tories to Ukip and those who came from Labour – dividing these two sets of voters into “blue Ukip” and “red Ukip” respectively. | |
| YouGov Profiles data reveals the very different characteristics of red and blue UKIP voters http://t.co/2ziDcRge4i pic.twitter.com/rd8GUHWdQ9 | YouGov Profiles data reveals the very different characteristics of red and blue UKIP voters http://t.co/2ziDcRge4i pic.twitter.com/rd8GUHWdQ9 |
| Red Ukip supports renationalising railways and utilities while blue Ukip is anti-multiculturalism and political correctness. The two come together on the core Ukip issues – immigration, the EU and crime. | |
| There are two underlying trends to consider here. | There are two underlying trends to consider here. |
| First, the demographics of Ukip voters and the party’s growing support among the working class and older, less educated parts of the electorate, and the consequences of this trend continuing over the next five to 10 years. | First, the demographics of Ukip voters and the party’s growing support among the working class and older, less educated parts of the electorate, and the consequences of this trend continuing over the next five to 10 years. |
| Second, the squeeze that this would imply on the core Labour vote. Add to it the collapse of support in Scotland, and to a lesser extent the loss of younger, more liberal voters to the Greens, and Labour’s 2020 prospects look gloomy. | Second, the squeeze that this would imply on the core Labour vote. Add to it the collapse of support in Scotland, and to a lesser extent the loss of younger, more liberal voters to the Greens, and Labour’s 2020 prospects look gloomy. |
| Ukip will probably only win between three and six seats in this election. However, this result may be a stepping stone for the party. It is in the next electoral cycle that we may well see the full extent of the factors that have led to the rise in support for Farage’s party – 2020 could see its rhetoric backed by seats and influence. | |
| The “major parties” should perhaps look to France to see the consequences of deep changes to an electorate’s demographics. | The “major parties” should perhaps look to France to see the consequences of deep changes to an electorate’s demographics. |
| Via @Le_Figaro: French local election results since 1992 (http://t.co/fsOI9SKJHW): pic.twitter.com/iAfAHd7mVi | Via @Le_Figaro: French local election results since 1992 (http://t.co/fsOI9SKJHW): pic.twitter.com/iAfAHd7mVi |
| Just under a decade ago, Marine Le Pen’s Front National was for the most part a marginal force in French politics – a protest party, even in 2002 when Jean-Marie Le Pen reached a presidential runoff vote. Today it is close to becoming the country’s most popular political party. |