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| Labour and Tory campaigns see election as a simple two-way choice | Labour and Tory campaigns see election as a simple two-way choice |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| The contest between Labour and the Conservatives is shaping into one of the crudest fights in British politics since John Major defeated Neil Kinnock in 1992 with his warnings of a Labour tax bombshell. | The contest between Labour and the Conservatives is shaping into one of the crudest fights in British politics since John Major defeated Neil Kinnock in 1992 with his warnings of a Labour tax bombshell. |
| Under the direction of Lynton Crosby, their Australian campaign director, the Tories are portraying Miliband as a weak leader who would guarantee “chaos” by failing to take tough decisions on the public finances. Miliband would be in the pocket of Alex Salmond in a hung parliament, a Tory election poster warned this month. | Under the direction of Lynton Crosby, their Australian campaign director, the Tories are portraying Miliband as a weak leader who would guarantee “chaos” by failing to take tough decisions on the public finances. Miliband would be in the pocket of Alex Salmond in a hung parliament, a Tory election poster warned this month. |
| One cabinet minister says the Conservatives have sought inspiration from the “Iron” Duke of Wellington, victor in the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, who said military campaigns are won by “hard pounding”. The minister said: “From now it is hard pounding. You just fire your weaponry at your opponent. I believe that, after Easter, that will work and Labour will not be able to withstand the firepower.” | One cabinet minister says the Conservatives have sought inspiration from the “Iron” Duke of Wellington, victor in the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, who said military campaigns are won by “hard pounding”. The minister said: “From now it is hard pounding. You just fire your weaponry at your opponent. I believe that, after Easter, that will work and Labour will not be able to withstand the firepower.” |
| If the Tories are open about the blunt nature of their campaign, Labour is keen to stress that its campaign seeks inspiration from a more progressive tradition. A key influence is James “Ragin’ Cajun” Carville, who wrote a note on a wall in the Little Rock campaign headquarters of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential election campaign. What it said – change versus more of the same, it’s the economy stupid and don’t forget healthcare – helps to define today’s Labour campaign. | If the Tories are open about the blunt nature of their campaign, Labour is keen to stress that its campaign seeks inspiration from a more progressive tradition. A key influence is James “Ragin’ Cajun” Carville, who wrote a note on a wall in the Little Rock campaign headquarters of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential election campaign. What it said – change versus more of the same, it’s the economy stupid and don’t forget healthcare – helps to define today’s Labour campaign. |
| Related: Battleground Britain: Dewsbury doubters have little faith that their vote counts | |
| Douglas Alexander, chair of Labour’s general election strategy, said the note was “quite a good guide to how progressive parties win elections”. It had inspired the “three clusters of issues” at the heart of the party’s campaign – living standards and the economy, the NHS, and offering opportunities to the next generation. | Douglas Alexander, chair of Labour’s general election strategy, said the note was “quite a good guide to how progressive parties win elections”. It had inspired the “three clusters of issues” at the heart of the party’s campaign – living standards and the economy, the NHS, and offering opportunities to the next generation. |
| In one of the most polarised, and closely fought, elections since 1992, Labour and Tory strategists do have one aim in common. They would like voters to believe the election is a binary choice between David Cameron and Ed Miliband – a challenging feat given that Labour and the Tories only managed to secure 65% of the vote between them in 2010. | In one of the most polarised, and closely fought, elections since 1992, Labour and Tory strategists do have one aim in common. They would like voters to believe the election is a binary choice between David Cameron and Ed Miliband – a challenging feat given that Labour and the Tories only managed to secure 65% of the vote between them in 2010. |
| The latest Guardian/ICM poll placed the combined Labour and Tory vote on 71%. This suggests that the strategists are having some success in defining the election as a binary choice or simply that Labour and Tories are in part the beneficiaries of the dramatic collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats, who are down 15 points on their 2010 share. | The latest Guardian/ICM poll placed the combined Labour and Tory vote on 71%. This suggests that the strategists are having some success in defining the election as a binary choice or simply that Labour and Tories are in part the beneficiaries of the dramatic collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats, who are down 15 points on their 2010 share. |
| A series of Labour-Conservative fights across the country, from Dewsbury in West Yorkshire to Bolton West in Greater Manchester and Thurrock in Essex, may not exactly decide the election as they did in years gone by. But they will certainly play a central role in deciding who makes it to No 10 – if only as leader of a minority government. Of the 40 most marginal seats in the UK, 22 saw battles between Labour and the Tories in 2010. | A series of Labour-Conservative fights across the country, from Dewsbury in West Yorkshire to Bolton West in Greater Manchester and Thurrock in Essex, may not exactly decide the election as they did in years gone by. But they will certainly play a central role in deciding who makes it to No 10 – if only as leader of a minority government. Of the 40 most marginal seats in the UK, 22 saw battles between Labour and the Tories in 2010. |
| Grants Shapps, the Conservative chairman, is basing the Tory campaign on what he calls the 40/40 strategy – to hold its 40 marginal seats and to capture the 40 most marginal seats on its target list. | Grants Shapps, the Conservative chairman, is basing the Tory campaign on what he calls the 40/40 strategy – to hold its 40 marginal seats and to capture the 40 most marginal seats on its target list. |
| Crosby says the Tories’ only hope in this campaign is to repeat ad nauseam that they have a “long-term economic plan” and are offering “competence versus chaos”. | Crosby says the Tories’ only hope in this campaign is to repeat ad nauseam that they have a “long-term economic plan” and are offering “competence versus chaos”. |
| “You can’t fatten a pig on market day,” Crosby likes to say, explaining the need to stick to the two messages he developed after joining the campaign in 2012. One Tory joked: “We are where we are now. We have the pig that we have.” | “You can’t fatten a pig on market day,” Crosby likes to say, explaining the need to stick to the two messages he developed after joining the campaign in 2012. One Tory joked: “We are where we are now. We have the pig that we have.” |
| There are, however, concerns among many Tories that Crosby’s campaign is overly negative. There are fears that relentless Miliband-bashing in YouTube campaign videos reinforce a central Tory weakness – that it is the “nasty party”. | There are, however, concerns among many Tories that Crosby’s campaign is overly negative. There are fears that relentless Miliband-bashing in YouTube campaign videos reinforce a central Tory weakness – that it is the “nasty party”. |
| The prime minister has reportedly said in private that he feels constrained by the Crosby campaign. But Cameron is telling friends he is convinced he will win because he is ahead on the two key electoral tests – economic competence and leadership. | The prime minister has reportedly said in private that he feels constrained by the Crosby campaign. But Cameron is telling friends he is convinced he will win because he is ahead on the two key electoral tests – economic competence and leadership. |
| Labour agrees with Crosby on the need for a clear campaign message presenting voters with an obvious choice. Alexander and his team have agreed after extensive research that their campaign message will be: Better Plan, A Better Future. This is designed to explain the “competitive frame” of the contest between a failing Tory plan and a better plan under Labour which would protect the NHS and provide greater opportunities for the next generation. | Labour agrees with Crosby on the need for a clear campaign message presenting voters with an obvious choice. Alexander and his team have agreed after extensive research that their campaign message will be: Better Plan, A Better Future. This is designed to explain the “competitive frame” of the contest between a failing Tory plan and a better plan under Labour which would protect the NHS and provide greater opportunities for the next generation. |
| Alexander told the Guardian: “There is a fundamental difference between the political parties about what makes a country succeed which is at the heart of this election campaign. The Tories genuinely believe that if you look after people at the top, the whole country does well. Their millionaires’ tax cut wasn’t a rush of blood or a mistake. It was a sincere expression of their belief that, if you look after people at the top, everybody else will be OK.” | Alexander told the Guardian: “There is a fundamental difference between the political parties about what makes a country succeed which is at the heart of this election campaign. The Tories genuinely believe that if you look after people at the top, the whole country does well. Their millionaires’ tax cut wasn’t a rush of blood or a mistake. It was a sincere expression of their belief that, if you look after people at the top, everybody else will be OK.” |
| Labour also believes it is crafting a campaign that is more sensitive to a fractured and less tribal nature of the electorate as Britain enters an era of five-party politics. Alexander expressed astonishment when Shapps said recently that just over 11,000 voters in 23 constituencies would decide the election. | Labour also believes it is crafting a campaign that is more sensitive to a fractured and less tribal nature of the electorate as Britain enters an era of five-party politics. Alexander expressed astonishment when Shapps said recently that just over 11,000 voters in 23 constituencies would decide the election. |
| “The era in which any political party, Labour included, could presume the support of any voter, group of voters, class of voters, any seat or any region, is gone. In that sense, it is a more challenging, diverse and complicated electoral battleground than some of contests in the early part of this century, where a very limited number of marginal seats were binary between Labour and the Conservatives.” | “The era in which any political party, Labour included, could presume the support of any voter, group of voters, class of voters, any seat or any region, is gone. In that sense, it is a more challenging, diverse and complicated electoral battleground than some of contests in the early part of this century, where a very limited number of marginal seats were binary between Labour and the Conservatives.” |
| Crosby is understood to have concentrated on delivering simpler messages when he addressed Tory MPs on Thursday. Even the revered “Wizard of Oz”, as Crosby is known, is facing pointed questions after promising that the party would have reached the “crossover” point in the polls by now – the moment when the Tories take a clear lead over Labour. The two parties are still neck and neck, suggesting that Tories are victims of what some Labour sources are calling “voteless recovery”. | Crosby is understood to have concentrated on delivering simpler messages when he addressed Tory MPs on Thursday. Even the revered “Wizard of Oz”, as Crosby is known, is facing pointed questions after promising that the party would have reached the “crossover” point in the polls by now – the moment when the Tories take a clear lead over Labour. The two parties are still neck and neck, suggesting that Tories are victims of what some Labour sources are calling “voteless recovery”. |