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Battleground Britain: Lib Dems face uphill battle to hold Taunton Deane Battleground Britain: Lib Dems face uphill battle to hold Taunton Deane
(about 2 hours later)
A Liberal Democrat campaign team is sweeping through a neat estate of modern houses on the outskirts of Taunton. Armed with smartphones, tablets, a clever canvassing app and boundless enthusiasm, they take just half an hour to knock on 82 doors.A Liberal Democrat campaign team is sweeping through a neat estate of modern houses on the outskirts of Taunton. Armed with smartphones, tablets, a clever canvassing app and boundless enthusiasm, they take just half an hour to knock on 82 doors.
The responses are varied: some say they will definitely vote for the Lib Dems and there are quite a few “probables”. Rachel Gilmour, the energetic candidate for Taunton Deane, hits the waverers with the “squeeze message”: vote for the Lib Dems to keep the Tories out. But there are also quite a few doors politely but firmly shut in the faces of the canvassers.The responses are varied: some say they will definitely vote for the Lib Dems and there are quite a few “probables”. Rachel Gilmour, the energetic candidate for Taunton Deane, hits the waverers with the “squeeze message”: vote for the Lib Dems to keep the Tories out. But there are also quite a few doors politely but firmly shut in the faces of the canvassers.
As she drives away in her battered old family car, Gilmour, a former head of strategy at the Environment Agency, admits she has a fight on her hands to save the Lib Dem-held seat. “It’s a challenge. We do get asked about the record of the coalition and I tell them we have been the conscience of the government. We have stopped the Tories doing more radical things. We kept them at bay.”As she drives away in her battered old family car, Gilmour, a former head of strategy at the Environment Agency, admits she has a fight on her hands to save the Lib Dem-held seat. “It’s a challenge. We do get asked about the record of the coalition and I tell them we have been the conscience of the government. We have stopped the Tories doing more radical things. We kept them at bay.”
And when people ask about thorny issues such as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s reversal on tuition fees? “I’ve been straight about that. It was a mistake. You should say sorry. I do say sorry.”And when people ask about thorny issues such as Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s reversal on tuition fees? “I’ve been straight about that. It was a mistake. You should say sorry. I do say sorry.”
Whether or not the voters accept the apologies and fresh promises of Gilmour and her fellow Lib Dem candidates in Somerset is crucial to the party. This is the Lib Dem heartland. The party holds four of the five seats in Somerset. One – Paddy Ashdown’s old Yeovil seat – is likely to remain solidly Lib Dem. But the other three are up for grabs, and the Tories have ambitions of pinching them all from their coalition partners.Whether or not the voters accept the apologies and fresh promises of Gilmour and her fellow Lib Dem candidates in Somerset is crucial to the party. This is the Lib Dem heartland. The party holds four of the five seats in Somerset. One – Paddy Ashdown’s old Yeovil seat – is likely to remain solidly Lib Dem. But the other three are up for grabs, and the Tories have ambitions of pinching them all from their coalition partners.
Rob, a 50-year-old civil servant, is the sort of Somerset voter on whom the Lib Dems have long depended. “My family has always voted Liberal and Nick Clegg performed well in the debates last time. He won my vote.”Rob, a 50-year-old civil servant, is the sort of Somerset voter on whom the Lib Dems have long depended. “My family has always voted Liberal and Nick Clegg performed well in the debates last time. He won my vote.”
But now he sees the party as “damaged, tarnished”. “He [Clegg] was the kingmaker and took on a position in government. He went back on a pledge on tuition fees, which has stuck in the throat of many people. He’s been weakened by his part in the coalition government. I’ll probably vote Conservative. I really like David Cameron as a person. I think he’s a family man.”But now he sees the party as “damaged, tarnished”. “He [Clegg] was the kingmaker and took on a position in government. He went back on a pledge on tuition fees, which has stuck in the throat of many people. He’s been weakened by his part in the coalition government. I’ll probably vote Conservative. I really like David Cameron as a person. I think he’s a family man.”
Victoria, 31, an office worker who also voted for the Lib Dems last time, is looking elsewhere, too. “I’ve lost respect for Nick Clegg. I feel he is weak and didn’t stand up for the promises he made in the 2010 election. I think I might vote for Labour this time.”Victoria, 31, an office worker who also voted for the Lib Dems last time, is looking elsewhere, too. “I’ve lost respect for Nick Clegg. I feel he is weak and didn’t stand up for the promises he made in the 2010 election. I think I might vote for Labour this time.”
Rob and Victoria were speaking at a focus group in Taunton organised by the polling firm BritainThinks, which is working in partnership with the Guardian to examine five key battleground seats, and the larger political themes that will help decide the election. In parts of the country the battle is Labour v Scottish National party – or Conservative v Ukip. Here the question is simpler: can the Lib Dems survive?Rob and Victoria were speaking at a focus group in Taunton organised by the polling firm BritainThinks, which is working in partnership with the Guardian to examine five key battleground seats, and the larger political themes that will help decide the election. In parts of the country the battle is Labour v Scottish National party – or Conservative v Ukip. Here the question is simpler: can the Lib Dems survive?
The BritainThinks veredict The BritainThinks verdict
We asked our panel to work in pairs and to imagine that selected parties were real people. Those panellists profiling the Lib Dems imagined them as middle-class, living in a semi-detached three-bed house in a suburban area with “2.4 children”. They would eat Marks & Spencer £10 dinners and their hobbies would be visiting National Trust properties.We asked our panel to work in pairs and to imagine that selected parties were real people. Those panellists profiling the Lib Dems imagined them as middle-class, living in a semi-detached three-bed house in a suburban area with “2.4 children”. They would eat Marks & Spencer £10 dinners and their hobbies would be visiting National Trust properties.
The Lib Dems were not perceived as having a strong, distinctive identity and were seen to be a disappointment. This was exacerbated by them going into coalition, which was seen as a mistake; conceding the tuition fee increase was, for most, the only notable thing the Lib Dems had done in government.The Lib Dems were not perceived as having a strong, distinctive identity and were seen to be a disappointment. This was exacerbated by them going into coalition, which was seen as a mistake; conceding the tuition fee increase was, for most, the only notable thing the Lib Dems had done in government.
The majority of the panel could not point to any positive Lib Dem policy contributions, although one or two mentioned the tax allowance increase; and there was very little memory of the AV referendum. Clegg was seen to be disappointing and not strong-willed, with panellists referring to him as a “sheep” or the coalition’s “back-up guy”.The majority of the panel could not point to any positive Lib Dem policy contributions, although one or two mentioned the tax allowance increase; and there was very little memory of the AV referendum. Clegg was seen to be disappointing and not strong-willed, with panellists referring to him as a “sheep” or the coalition’s “back-up guy”.
The 12 panel members, all undecided voters, flagged up a wide range of issues, from affordable housing to cycling safety, from the tattiness of some parts of Taunton to the lack of a decent music venue that might tempt big bands further west than Bristol.The 12 panel members, all undecided voters, flagged up a wide range of issues, from affordable housing to cycling safety, from the tattiness of some parts of Taunton to the lack of a decent music venue that might tempt big bands further west than Bristol.
People know the story here. If they break off to the Greens or Labour, they will return a Conservative governmentPeople know the story here. If they break off to the Greens or Labour, they will return a Conservative government
But the topics that provoked the most passionate discussion were immigration and jobs. On the face of it, immigration should not be a huge issue here. According to the 2011 census, 93% of Taunton Deane residents were born in the UK, against 87% for England as a whole. Ninety-seven percent of residents are white and 99% speak English as their first language.But the topics that provoked the most passionate discussion were immigration and jobs. On the face of it, immigration should not be a huge issue here. According to the 2011 census, 93% of Taunton Deane residents were born in the UK, against 87% for England as a whole. Ninety-seven percent of residents are white and 99% speak English as their first language.
And unemployment is hardly rife: 84% of people are economically active, compared with 77% in Great Britain. Only 1% of people under pensionable age and seeking full-time work were claiming jobseekers allowance in February.And unemployment is hardly rife: 84% of people are economically active, compared with 77% in Great Britain. Only 1% of people under pensionable age and seeking full-time work were claiming jobseekers allowance in February.
Still, Emilio, a 39-year-old credit controller, said Britain was a “soft touch” when it came to immigration. “I’d like to see tighter controls. I think we have a very open policy and people are coming here for the wrong reasons. Very soon after coming to the country they are given funds having not put anything into the pot.”Still, Emilio, a 39-year-old credit controller, said Britain was a “soft touch” when it came to immigration. “I’d like to see tighter controls. I think we have a very open policy and people are coming here for the wrong reasons. Very soon after coming to the country they are given funds having not put anything into the pot.”
Emilio did not vote last time, put off by the MPs’ expenses scandal, but says he might back the Conservatives this time, or plump for one of the “smaller parties” – Ukip or the Greens – in a protest vote. He will not back the Lib Dems or Labour. “For me Nick Clegg tends to be a sheep, he seems to follow. Ed Miliband seems a bit of a schoolboy.”Emilio did not vote last time, put off by the MPs’ expenses scandal, but says he might back the Conservatives this time, or plump for one of the “smaller parties” – Ukip or the Greens – in a protest vote. He will not back the Lib Dems or Labour. “For me Nick Clegg tends to be a sheep, he seems to follow. Ed Miliband seems a bit of a schoolboy.”
Steve, a 53-year-old tiler, is also considering voting Tory because they have “more of a backbone” than other parties. “The last politician I admired was Margaret Thatcher. She had a pair of balls that the recent ones don’t seem to have. She instilled a sense of pride in the UK.” He spoke of the number of Polish people in Taunton – Polish is the most common non-English language here. “If I need a protest vote, it will be Ukip, to take a vote away from the other parties.”Steve, a 53-year-old tiler, is also considering voting Tory because they have “more of a backbone” than other parties. “The last politician I admired was Margaret Thatcher. She had a pair of balls that the recent ones don’t seem to have. She instilled a sense of pride in the UK.” He spoke of the number of Polish people in Taunton – Polish is the most common non-English language here. “If I need a protest vote, it will be Ukip, to take a vote away from the other parties.”
The views expressed at the focus group will give succour to the Conservatives and Ukip. The Tory candidate is the best known of the candidates, a former television reporter specialising in the environment called Rebecca Pow. She has been in place for 18 months and is working hard to make tangible changes ahead of the election, campaigning strongly for improvements to the train station and the road network. In contrast, her Lib Dem rival has only been in place since December after the sitting MP, Jeremy Browne, unexpectedly announced he was stepping down.The views expressed at the focus group will give succour to the Conservatives and Ukip. The Tory candidate is the best known of the candidates, a former television reporter specialising in the environment called Rebecca Pow. She has been in place for 18 months and is working hard to make tangible changes ahead of the election, campaigning strongly for improvements to the train station and the road network. In contrast, her Lib Dem rival has only been in place since December after the sitting MP, Jeremy Browne, unexpectedly announced he was stepping down.
But the Tory party in Somerset still faces challenges. Their single sitting MP, Ian Liddell-Grainger, was on the wrong end of a vote of no confidence from Tory councillors in west Somerset, who called for him to be deselected. The Tories run the county and district councils and many think Taunton and other communities in Somerset have declined while Bristol and Exeter have flourished.But the Tory party in Somerset still faces challenges. Their single sitting MP, Ian Liddell-Grainger, was on the wrong end of a vote of no confidence from Tory councillors in west Somerset, who called for him to be deselected. The Tories run the county and district councils and many think Taunton and other communities in Somerset have declined while Bristol and Exeter have flourished.
Residents of the Somerset Levels are still angry over what they see as David Cameron’s slow reaction to the flooding just over a year ago, and talk scornfully about the then environment secretary Owen Paterson’s awkward visit in city shoes as the waters rose and just about everyone else took to wellies.Residents of the Somerset Levels are still angry over what they see as David Cameron’s slow reaction to the flooding just over a year ago, and talk scornfully about the then environment secretary Owen Paterson’s awkward visit in city shoes as the waters rose and just about everyone else took to wellies.
The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, made a more successful visit during the floods, donning waders to reach stranded residents, and his party is beginning to get a foothold in Somerset. It has two members on the county council, including one who caused waves by winning in Yeovil. Ukip secured more votes than anyone in Taunton Deane in the European elections, pushing the Tories into second and the Lib Dems into third.The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, made a more successful visit during the floods, donning waders to reach stranded residents, and his party is beginning to get a foothold in Somerset. It has two members on the county council, including one who caused waves by winning in Yeovil. Ukip secured more votes than anyone in Taunton Deane in the European elections, pushing the Tories into second and the Lib Dems into third.
The party’s candidate is a young graduate and solicitor, Laura Bailhache, who says she is proud of Taunton’s record in welcoming immigrants and believes that issues such as the NHS, housing, education and wind turbines are more important here.The party’s candidate is a young graduate and solicitor, Laura Bailhache, who says she is proud of Taunton’s record in welcoming immigrants and believes that issues such as the NHS, housing, education and wind turbines are more important here.
But Gavin Grant, the regional chair of the Lib Dems for the western counties region, is keen to claim that, despite a long list of runners and riders, Taunton Deane, like much of the west country, is a straight battle between his party and the Tories. He concedes that many of those who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010 as a tactical move to keep the Tories out were angry when they formed a coalition that let David Cameron in. But he believes, or hopes, voters are savvy and pragmatic.But Gavin Grant, the regional chair of the Lib Dems for the western counties region, is keen to claim that, despite a long list of runners and riders, Taunton Deane, like much of the west country, is a straight battle between his party and the Tories. He concedes that many of those who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010 as a tactical move to keep the Tories out were angry when they formed a coalition that let David Cameron in. But he believes, or hopes, voters are savvy and pragmatic.
“People know the story here. They shrug their shoulders in the recognition this is still a Lib Dem/Conservative fight. If they break off to the Greens or Labour, they will return a solidly Conservative government.”“People know the story here. They shrug their shoulders in the recognition this is still a Lib Dem/Conservative fight. If they break off to the Greens or Labour, they will return a solidly Conservative government.”
Undoubtedly, the Lib Dem footsoldiers remain committed and motivated.Undoubtedly, the Lib Dem footsoldiers remain committed and motivated.
“This is an exciting time,” Grant says. “There are a lot of challenges in our country – intolerance and extremism and nationalism are amongst them. As liberals, that is the antithesis of who we are. Those men and women of good heart will rally behind the Liberal Democrat banner in the west.”“This is an exciting time,” Grant says. “There are a lot of challenges in our country – intolerance and extremism and nationalism are amongst them. As liberals, that is the antithesis of who we are. Those men and women of good heart will rally behind the Liberal Democrat banner in the west.”
But so negative are the perceptions of the party that it is far from certain that such optimism will win out.But so negative are the perceptions of the party that it is far from certain that such optimism will win out.