To prosecute the perpetrators in Syria, the killings must be documented
|
Version 0 of 1. March 2015 marks four years of the conflict in Syria. A once-peaceful uprising initiated by children scrawling anti-government graffiti on a wall in Dera’a has become a conflict that has engulfed the region and led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. It is the largest humanitarian disaster since the second world war, with millions displaced inside Syria and to neighbouring countries. Humanitarian agencies and the media have gone into overdrive covering the crisis, focusing now on Islamic State (Isis). Yet there remains little reliable information and data on numbers killed and the causes of death and injury. Four years on, deaths attributed to the conflict are reported by United Nations to be over 200,000, with a probable one million-plus severely injured and maimed. These remain, however, crude numbers painstakingly compiled from a variety of human rights data sources. In perhaps the most media-covered conflict to date we still know little about who is being killed, where, when and how. Related: Why the revolutionary Kurdish fight against Isis deserves our support | Owen Jones In Syria, death and injury are a consequence of the weaponry used by rebel groups, the government and international forces involving missiles and bombs fired from aircraft and artillery, bullets and summary executions. Men, women and children die daily. However, these civilians are not killed randomly. According to a forthcoming study by Professor Guha-Sapir and colleagues at the University of Louvain in Belgium, a significant “death pattern” has emerged over the past four years. The study brings together for the first time accurate but grim evidence on the patterns of weapon-related deaths. The Violations Documenting Centre (VDC), formerly based in Damascus, is an on-the-ground network run by human rights experts. It is perhaps the most reliable source of information about conflict-related deaths in Syria and constitutes a primary source of death-toll data for the United Nations. The group has been tracking conflict-related deaths in Syria since 2011, ascertaining the particularities and the weapon type used in each fatality. Bodies are identified with names, location, gender and age. Photos and videos of the dead are taken where possible. The latest figures report a total of 129,819 violent deaths from both government and rebel sides. Government armed forces have also suffered heavy losses over the last four years with more than 50,000 soldiers estimated to have been killed – including executions of defectors. However, by far the most affected are the civilian populations that have been caught up in the conflict. Using VDC data from March 2011 to late January 2015, the study demonstrates that there are patterns in the sex and age of deaths associated to specific weapon types. The data shows that ground-shelling, chemical weapons and aerial bombardments (including barrel bombs) are by far the most deadly threat to the lives of women and children in opposition areas. Although the Syrian government claims that it uses aircraft to target “terrorists” in opposition-held areas that the civilian population has left, it appears from the available evidence that women and children have been the main victims of these missions. No data is available from the government about how many rebels are killed. Whether they actually collate such operational information is unknown. In military terms it appears the government has willingly adopted an extremely high level of “acceptable loss” in trying to achieve its strategic aims. The data indicates that women and children in pro-government areas are also victims of certain weaponry, most notably explosions and shells. The brutality of Isis and other extremist groups should also not be forgotten. They have subjugated thousands of Syrians and Iraqis, which has led to widespread death and displacement. Far greater resources both from donor governments and the media need to be directed toward accurately and reliably documenting the situation of civilians on all sides in terms of human rights abuses, the numbers of civilians killed and injured, and those dying of disease and lack of access to health services. Reliable and timely data is needed properly to understand the humanitarian situation and prepare effective policy responses. Unfortunately, over the past four years the humanitarian and diplomatic response has been far from evidence-based. Without this information the international community runs the risk of being perceived by millions of Syrians and those affected by the crisis as being neglectful and complicit in their suffering. We need to accurately document and analyse conflict-related deaths in Syria not only as a moral imperative, but to bring credible evidence for the eventual prosecution of perpetrators in a post-conflict Syria. |