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India unveils budget for growth | |
(4 months later) | |
The Indian finance minister, Arun Jaitley, has announced a budget aimed at high growth, saying the pace of cutting the fiscal deficit would slow as he seeks to boost investment and ensure that ordinary people benefit. | |
Jaitley, delivering his first full-year budget since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s landslide election victory last May, said growth would accelerate to between 8 and 8.5% in the fiscal year starting in April. | |
“India is about to take off,” Jaitley, 62, said early in his speech to lawmakers on Saturday. “The world is predicting that this is India’s chance to fly.” | |
Jaitley said he would stand by the fiscal deficit target for the 2014/15 year – which ends on 31 March – of 4.1% of gross domestic product. | |
But he pushed back by a year his medium-term goal of cutting the deficit to 3% of gross domestic product. In 2015/16 the deficit will be 3.9% of GDP, up from the 3.6% target inherited from the last government. | |
Reaping the benefits of low global prices for oil, India’s main import, Modi’s nationalist government says it is in a sweet spot with spare cash to modernise roads and railways without busting fiscal deficit and inflation targets. | |
Jaitley said it was time for a “quantum leap” on reforms and that incremental change “is not going to take us anywhere”, building on expectations that the 2015/16 budget would deliver big-bang reforms. | |
The minister said the government would seek to boost the efficiency of a rural job creation scheme that is India’s costliest welfare programme. It would also boost direct welfare payments into bank accounts, gradually replacing benefits in kind. | |
An overhaul of economic data has propelled India to the top of the league of fast-growing major economies, and the current account deficit is projected to fall below 1% next year, which would help stabilise the rupee and build up reserves. | |
But expectations for a further shift in expenditure from subsidies to infrastructure are sky-high among investors who made India the best performing stock market in Asia after China last year on hopes Modi’s government brings sweeping reforms to labour, tax and land laws. | |
“The settings are just right for finance minister Arun Jaitley to shun gradualism and go for broke,” the Hindustan Times wrote in an editorial. | |
The market rally has continued this year on expectations that legislative reform will push ahead stalled private investment and consumer demand, and reverse a decline in corporate earnings to make Asia’s third-largest economy a global growth driver. |