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No 10 warning ahead of Iraq vote No 10 warning ahead of Iraq vote
(about 2 hours later)
Downing Street has warned of "very real consequences" for British troops in Iraq if MPs defeat the government over calls for an inquiry into the war.Downing Street has warned of "very real consequences" for British troops in Iraq if MPs defeat the government over calls for an inquiry into the war.
The Commons will debate a Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru call for a probe now into the war and aftermath, backed by Lib Dems and Labour rebels.The Commons will debate a Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru call for a probe now into the war and aftermath, backed by Lib Dems and Labour rebels.
The Tories say they may also support it if ministers do not agree to hold a broader inquiry once troops leave. The Tories say they may also support it, if ministers do not agree to hold a broader inquiry once troops leave.
No 10 says an inquiry now would be seen by the enemy as a sign of weakness.No 10 says an inquiry now would be seen by the enemy as a sign of weakness.
But Mr Blair's official spokesman also hinted that the government might agree to an inquiry once troops have left Iraq. Ministers had said that the Hutton Inquiry, into the death of government adviser David Kelly, and the Butler Inquiry into the pre-war intelligence were enough.
'Learn the lessons'
But Mr Blair's official spokesman hinted on Tuesday that the government might agree to an inquiry once troops have left Iraq.
He said: "Of course we continue to learn the lessons all the time and there is no doubt that at the end of our period there people will want to look back.He said: "Of course we continue to learn the lessons all the time and there is no doubt that at the end of our period there people will want to look back.
"The time to deal with that is then, not now. This is not a theoretical debate. It is a very real debate with very real consequences for our soldiers on the ground.""The time to deal with that is then, not now. This is not a theoretical debate. It is a very real debate with very real consequences for our soldiers on the ground."
Review call What would demoralise soldiers in the field is the belief that the government have put us in a bloody quagmire, and have no idea whatsoever how to get out of it Alex SalmondSNP
The debate, due to start at 1540 GMT and in which Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett will speak, is the first full Commons debate on Iraq since July 2004. Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett will speak in the debate, which starts at 1540 GMT, which is the first full Commons debate on Iraq since July 2004.
The SNP and Plaid are using their "Opposition Day" to table a motion calling for a committee of seven senior MPs to review "the way in which the responsibilities of government were discharged in relation to Iraq" from the build-up to the March 2003 invasion and its aftermath. The SNP and Plaid are using their "Opposition Day" to table a motion calling for a committee of seven senior MPs to review "the way in which the responsibilities of government were discharged in relation to Iraq".
The wording matches an Early Day Motion of November 2005, which was signed by more than 160 MPs of all parties, including 32 Labour MPs. Rebel MPs
It is essential ... that we establish what combination of deception, delusion and ineptitude carried us down this fateful path Adam Price Plaid Cymru The wording matches a motion from November 2005, which was signed by more than 160 MPs of all parties, including 32 Labour MPs.
If that many Labour MPs rebel in the vote, due at 1840 GMT, and all non-Labour MPs vote for the motion, the government would be defeated. If that number of Labour MPs rebel, and all non-Labour MPs vote for the motion, the government could be defeated, although that is seen as unlikely at this stage.
It is unclear, and difficult to predict, how, or whether, MPs will vote on the issue, but a defeat would be embarrassing for Mr Blair. If Mr Blair was defeated, an inquiry would go ahead, although it could be overturned at a later date, possibly through a confidence vote.
If MPs back the motion an inquiry would go ahead unless ministers overturn it at a later date. One way of doing so would be by calling a confidence vote.
Plaid's defence spokesman Adam Price said it was essential to "establish what combination of deception, delusion and ineptitude carried us down this fateful path".
SNP leader Alex Salmond said: "Even if the government wins it by a narrow margin - which I think is the reality - then [Tony Blair] would be in a Neville Chamberlain situation where you win the battle but lose the war."
The Conservatives favour an investigation, similar to the Franks inquiry carried out after the Falklands war, involving former generals and civil servants rather than just MPs.
'Hearts and minds'
They say they have met the government's concerns, by requesting an inquiry which starts next year, by when ministers have said Iraqi security forces should have been able to take over most responsibilities from British troops.
Shadow foreign secretary William Hague said if such an inquiry was announced, the Conservatives would abstain from voting on Tuesday.
But if not, they would put the government "under increased pressure" to do so, by voting with the SNP and Plaid.
Whatever one's view about the rights and wrongs of the invasion of Iraq, it's very important to learn about what's happened since then William Hague
"Most of us supported the invasion of Iraq and many of us still consider it was the right thing to do... but this is a separate issue," he told the BBC.
He said it was important to look at the aftermath, from the successful elections, to the failure to reconstruct Iraq's economy or win the "hearts and minds" of its people.
"Whatever one's view about the rights and wrongs of the invasion of Iraq, it's very important to learn about what's happened since then," he said.
'Ludicrous'
But Labour member of the foreign affairs select committee, Gisela Stuart, said there had already been sufficient investigations - with the Hutton and Butler inquiries.
"We have a continuous questioning process within Parliament whether it's in Defence questions, Foreign Affairs questions ... we have debates," she said.
HAVE YOUR SAY Instead of being retrospective why not look into what can be done to help Iraq now? Qwerty, UK Send us your commentsHAVE YOUR SAY Instead of being retrospective why not look into what can be done to help Iraq now? Qwerty, UK Send us your comments
SNP leader Alex Salmond said the government's argument that an inquiry could have consequences for troops was "desperate stuff".
"What would demoralise soldiers in the field is the belief that the government have put us in a bloody quagmire, and have no idea whatsoever how to get out of it."
"Debates and inquiries should take place when things are happening, hopefully then there is a chance to do something to improve the situation."
'Entirely legitimate'
The Conservatives favour an investigation, similar to the Franks inquiry carried out after the Falklands war, involving former generals and civil servants rather than just MPs.
They say it should take place in about 12 months' time, by when ministers have said Iraqi security forces should be taking over responsibilities from British troops.
But if the government does not publicly confirm that there will be such an inquiry, the Tories say they will vote with the SNP and Plaid.
Shadow foreign secretary William Hague said it was important to look at the aftermath of the toppling of Saddam, from the successful elections to the failure to reconstruct Iraq's economy or win the "hearts and minds" of its people.
He dismissed suggestions it would show weakness, saying: "It shows that we are a society that is able to learn and that's the great strength of our democracy."
Liberal Democrat foreign spokesman Michael Moore, said it was "entirely legitimate" to ask questions of ministers, without undermining troops' morale.Liberal Democrat foreign spokesman Michael Moore, said it was "entirely legitimate" to ask questions of ministers, without undermining troops' morale.
"We want to know that the government actually have a proper plan for Iraq that's got milestones, that's got benchmarks, that actually recognises we cannot be there indefinitely," he said. "We want to know that the government actually have a proper plan for Iraq that's got milestones... that recognises we cannot be there indefinitely," he said.
Earlier this month Mr Blair defended the decision to invade Iraq and said it would be a "betrayal" of British forces' sacrifices since 2003, and of Iraq, if troops pulled out of the country too soon. Earlier this month Mr Blair defended the decision to invade Iraq top remove Saddam Hussein and said it would be a "betrayal", if troops pulled out of the country too soon.
* You can watch the debate, which is expected to start at about 1540 GMT, live on the BBC News website. There will be a link to the coverage on this page. * You can watch the debate, which is expected to start at about 1540 GMT, live on the BBC News website. There will be a link to the coverage on this page.