How Tories could remain the largest party (part two): vote green, get blue
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Version 0 of 1. Two years ago, the Labour party was polling on 43% and held a double-digit lead over the Conservatives. More than one in three Liberal Democrats had switched to Labour. On just under 2%, the Green party was not on anyone’s mind. Ed Miliband’s party has since dropped 10 points in the polls while support for the Green party has increased more than threefold to 7%. The share of 2010 Lib Dem voters supporting the Green party has risen to 16% and 3.5% of those who remember voting Labour at the last election now say they will vote Green. A 7% share might not sound like much, but it could spell terrible news for Labour – and could be David Cameron’s best hope of remaining the tenant of 10 Downing Street after the 7 May poll. Labour still holds a fractional lead in the polls. The fact that Miliband’s party and the Tories are virtually tied once the popular vote is translated into seats, is primarily driven by the Scottish National party and the 50 seats they would take in Scotland. But make no mistake: any rise in support for the Greens directly hurts Labour’s electoral chances. There are two reasons for this. First, unlike support for Ukip, which has come from both the two main parties, a vote for the Greens is overwhelmingly subtracting from Labour’s electoral chances. According to an analysis carried out by YouGov’s Peter Kellner in October 2014, more than 70% of the Greens’ vote is coming from the Lib Dems (50%) and Labour (22%). These numbers are a double blow to Labour. Not only because of voters flowing to the Greens directly from Miliband’s party, but, just as crucially, former Lib Dems who previously were inclined to support the Labour party are now choosing the Green party instead. In fact, in the two years leading up to Kellner’s analysis, nearly a third of Lib Dem to Labour switchers “left” Miliband’s party. If he is to win in May, Miliband needs to keep his voters on side and to attract former Lib Dems to his camp – and the Greens damage Labour on both these fronts. The second factor that hurts Labour are the demographics of Green supporters. As Robert Ford, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Manchester, notes, the Greens draw their strength primarily from younger, socially liberal and economically left-leaning graduates. These are all groups that would otherwise lean heavily towards Labour. This too is an important difference between the voters flowing to the Greens compared with Ukip’s growing support. The latter gained its strength by attracting voters from both main parties. Even though a majority of Ukip supporters voted Tory in 2010, many had traditionally backed Labour before that. Most of the demographically friendly seats for Ukip were once held by the Labour party. What does this all mean in terms of the general election? The Greens are, as things stand, unlikely to add to Brighton Pavilion, the one seat the party holds. The one exception might be Norwich South. However, one attribute the Greens do share with Ukip is that the two parties’ electoral influence will ultimately be less about the seats they win and will instead be characterised by the number of constituency-level outcomes they impact. The Green party winning 5-7% of the vote could make a difference in several closely fought contests. If support for the Greens were to grow beyond that, a significant number of results would be affected. Related: How Tories could remain the largest party (part one): Ukip support drops Based on current polling, the Greens’ result could make a difference in at least 18 seats. In four of these, the Conservatives are within touching distance of the Lib Dems. In 10, the Tories are just behind, or tied, with Labour. Three seats are a contest between the Lib Dems and Labour, where the Green share of the vote could decide who wins the constituency. One of these two seats is Nick Clegg’s own constituency, Sheffield Hallam: that’s right, a Green surge – and where it takes votes from – could decide the deputy prime minister’s future. Completing the list is Watford, where the three main parties are all within a handful of points. On today’s polling figures, and because of the sheer number of seats involved (a bloc of 20-30 seats going to Labour or to the SNP), the electoral dynamics in Scotland still remain the single most important factor in determining who between Miliband and Cameron will emerge as the largest party on 7 May. Based on the Guardian’s latest analysis of polls, the Conservatives would win 275 seats. This would mean they would be short of not only a majority, but also of feasible options to form a government. A further uplift in support for the Greens, even if small, could add more than 10 seats to that tally. If coupled with a drop in Ukip support, the Tories would not be too far off their 2010 result, when they won 307 seats. This is not a prediction, but rather an illustration of the best likely scenario for the Conservatives. There is no substantial evidence in the current polling to suggest either a significant Ukip drop or a continued rise in support for the Greens will materialise by election day. With an outright majority seemingly out of reach for both main parties at this stage of the race, the path to a Tory-led stable government would most likely need to be paved by Ukip receding and the Green surge escalating. Worryingly for Labour, and even more so for the Lib Dems, the two parties’ supporters are the least sure about their vote. In an Ipsos Mori poll published last week, 62% of Lib Dem voters said they may change their mind before 7 May, compared with 51% of both Labour and Ukip supporters, 42% of Tories and 50% of the electorate as a whole. The list of seats of most affected by a Green surge 1. Seats where Tories are marginally behind or tiedBrecon & Radnorshire (Lib Dems lead in current polls)Brighton Kemptown (Lab leads)City of Chester (Lab)Halesowen & Rowley Regis (Lab)Hove (Lab)Morecambe & Lunesdale (Lab)North Cornwall (LibDem)Pudsey (Lab-Con tie)South Swindon (Lab-Con tie)Southampton Itchen (Lab)St Ives (LibDem)Torbay (LibDem)Wirral West (Lab)Worcester (Lab) 2. Labour v Lib Dem contestsCambridgeSheffield HallamHornsey & Wood Green 3. A possible second Green seatNorwich South (Lab v Green) 4. The three-way raceWatford (Con v Lab v Lib Dem) 5. Outside chance of being influenced by a Green surge Ealing Central & Acton (Lab lead Con by <10 points)Hazel Grove (Lib Dem lead Con by <10)Kingston & Surbiton (Lib Dem lead Con by <10)North Devon (Con fractionally ahead of Lib Dem)St Austell & Newquay (Con fractionally ahead of Lib Dem and Ukip)Plymouth Sutton & Devonport (Lab lead Con by <10) |