We can’t vote on this government’s welfare reform with out-of-date data

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/18/we-cant-vote-welfare-reform-out-of-date-data

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In a conference on poverty statistics at the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) last week, throughout the day, one thematic gripe emerged: timeliness for data on poverty. One particularly sophisticated and definitive dataset, the Office for National Statistics’ Households Below Average Income (HBAI) publication will not be released until after the election.

The fact that the most up-to-date figures on HBAI will not be available before the election is concerning. Not only does it hamper the ongoing analysis that thinktanks, academics and charities do with the data, it means that the general election in May will be fought on out-of-date information, and the public will be asked to cast votes without knowing the effects of the coalition’s far-reaching welfare reforms.

The last HBAI figures, published by the Department for Work and Pensions in July 2014, covered the 2012/13 financial year: crucially ending just as welfare reform came in. So, the impact of the bedroom tax, the removal of council tax assistance schemes, changes to disability living allowance and employment support allowance, and benefit sanctions are not reflected in any of this data. The figures that will most accurately show the nationwide effect of the coalition’s policies, meanwhile, will be published just after the country heads to the polls.

The New Policy Institute thinktank wrote to the work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, back in September expressing concern over the delay, pointing out that statistics on the state of the economy appear shortly after each quarter, whereas the publication of HBAI is is delayed. Under the last Labour government, the HBAI was routinely published biannually in March.

The findings of the HBAI could be positive – a small amount of growth in the economy and the higher tax-free allowance could make things slightly easier for families. But it is far more likely to show an increase in poverty, and particularly inequality: with the poorest hit hardest by welfare reform and the slump in wage growth, while the middle class feel more comfortable.

Academic annoyances aside, the impact of this delay on the political debate around welfare in the election is huge. Cuts to welfare provision have been a flagship policy of the coalition government, and the belief that the answer to unemployment and poverty is to cut off financial support looks to be a mainstay of the Conservatives’ campaign until 7 May. But the official statistics all parties rely on to make their arguments will be two-and-a-half-years out of date, and completely useless as a measure of how the coalition’s welfare changes have affected poverty rates. The raft of changes that heralded the start of the 2013 financial year are hidden from official statistics until votes have been cast.

Speaking at the RSS conference, Trussell Trust chief executive David McAuley said that data collected at their food banks showed a 10% spike in referrals due to sanctions. Despite economic growth, McAuley warned, demand for emergency food provision was still growing. He added that Duncan Smith still refused to meet him to discuss food poverty.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation warned recently that the gap between the income of the poorest households and what they need to achieve a minimum standard of living – calculated as the amount the public think people need in order to reach a socially acceptable standard of living – is widening.

The general consensus among professionals, academics and those living in poverty is clear: the government’s welfare cuts have caused huge suffering, cost lives and done nothing to address inequality. But the election will be fought on old data, ideology and rhetoric. Depriving voters of the opportunity to accurately assess the impact of contentious political changes is a civic injustice. The debate on the impact of welfare reform should be informed: without official data, it can’t be.

• This article was amended on 25 February 2015. An earlier version stated that “the publication of HBAI is increasingly being delayed”. In fact the HBAI has been published in May, June or July since 2009 and will be published in May or June this year in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.