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Ukraine Cease-Fire Leaves Control of Eastern Border Unsettled Ukraine Cease-Fire Leaves Control of Border Unresolved Until Year’s End
(35 minutes later)
WASHINGTON — The cease-fire accord announced in Minsk on Thursday was hailed by Secretary of State John Kerry and European leaders as a potential breakthrough that could finally bring the bitter conflict in Ukraine to an end.WASHINGTON — The cease-fire accord announced in Minsk on Thursday was hailed by Secretary of State John Kerry and European leaders as a potential breakthrough that could finally bring the bitter conflict in Ukraine to an end.
But while the agreement may succeed in establishing a cease-fire by mid-February, it is likely to leave Russia and the separatists it supports holding the upper hand in eastern Ukraine for months, if not longer. That is because the accord delays the resolution of a central issue — restoring Ukraine’s control of its eastern border with Russia — and sets no deadline for the withdrawal of Russian forces, weapons and equipment from Ukraine.But while the agreement may succeed in establishing a cease-fire by mid-February, it is likely to leave Russia and the separatists it supports holding the upper hand in eastern Ukraine for months, if not longer. That is because the accord delays the resolution of a central issue — restoring Ukraine’s control of its eastern border with Russia — and sets no deadline for the withdrawal of Russian forces, weapons and equipment from Ukraine.
“The deal likely was the best that Poroshenko could have achieved under difficult circumstances, with Russia continuing to back the separatists,” said Steven Pifer, a former American ambassador to Ukraine, referring to Petro O. Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president.“The deal likely was the best that Poroshenko could have achieved under difficult circumstances, with Russia continuing to back the separatists,” said Steven Pifer, a former American ambassador to Ukraine, referring to Petro O. Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president.
“But Minsk II raises tough questions and leaves difficult issues for later,” Mr. Pifer added. “It is a fragile arrangement, requiring good faith and follow-through from parties that have shown little of that in the past.”“But Minsk II raises tough questions and leaves difficult issues for later,” Mr. Pifer added. “It is a fragile arrangement, requiring good faith and follow-through from parties that have shown little of that in the past.”
From the start, Germany and France said that their goal was to find a way to defuse the conflict — and avert the need for the United States to consider sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainians — by coming up with a plan for carrying out the peace agreement that was announced in Minsk in September.From the start, Germany and France said that their goal was to find a way to defuse the conflict — and avert the need for the United States to consider sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainians — by coming up with a plan for carrying out the peace agreement that was announced in Minsk in September.
That earlier accord has been regularly violated by Russia and the separatists it supports, Western officials said. So the challenge was not just to produce a cease-fire but also to find a way to make a broader agreement stick.That earlier accord has been regularly violated by Russia and the separatists it supports, Western officials said. So the challenge was not just to produce a cease-fire but also to find a way to make a broader agreement stick.
The approach Germany and France pursued was to negotiate a new plan with the Russians and Ukrainians, which would be implemented in stages. But as the agreement was drafted, some of the most important elements were left for the end of the implementation process.The approach Germany and France pursued was to negotiate a new plan with the Russians and Ukrainians, which would be implemented in stages. But as the agreement was drafted, some of the most important elements were left for the end of the implementation process.
A major concern for Ukraine and its Western supporters, for example, has been restoring Ukrainian control over its border, which NATO says the Kremlin has repeatedly violated when it sent troops and heavy weapons to eastern Ukraine.A major concern for Ukraine and its Western supporters, for example, has been restoring Ukrainian control over its border, which NATO says the Kremlin has repeatedly violated when it sent troops and heavy weapons to eastern Ukraine.
“The U.S. position, all along has been that the international border in particular should not be a question that is sort of deferred further down into the implementation phase, because what we don’t want is a situation where we have a partially implemented deal that leaves that question unresolved,” a senior State Department official told reporters who were attending a security conference in Germany on Saturday. The official cannot be identified under the ground rules the department set for the briefing.“The U.S. position, all along has been that the international border in particular should not be a question that is sort of deferred further down into the implementation phase, because what we don’t want is a situation where we have a partially implemented deal that leaves that question unresolved,” a senior State Department official told reporters who were attending a security conference in Germany on Saturday. The official cannot be identified under the ground rules the department set for the briefing.
The agreement, in fact, addresses the issue. But it states that the process of restoring “full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine throughout the conflict area” is to happen by the end of 2015. And it is only to happen then if constitutional reforms that will decentralize authority to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are first carried out and local elections held.The agreement, in fact, addresses the issue. But it states that the process of restoring “full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine throughout the conflict area” is to happen by the end of 2015. And it is only to happen then if constitutional reforms that will decentralize authority to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are first carried out and local elections held.
One senior Western official, who asked not to be identified because the official was discussing internal deliberations, said the delay in restoring Ukraine’s control over the border was a major weakness in the agreement and voiced concern that the local elections could be seriously flawed if Ukraine’s border is left open for Russian agents and operatives.One senior Western official, who asked not to be identified because the official was discussing internal deliberations, said the delay in restoring Ukraine’s control over the border was a major weakness in the agreement and voiced concern that the local elections could be seriously flawed if Ukraine’s border is left open for Russian agents and operatives.
There are other ambiguities, officials say. The accord calls for disarming illegal groups. But the separatists may maintain that their militias are not illegal and that therefore the provision does not apply to them.There are other ambiguities, officials say. The accord calls for disarming illegal groups. But the separatists may maintain that their militias are not illegal and that therefore the provision does not apply to them.
The United States did not send a representative to the talks in Minsk but consulted closely with its allies. Mr. Kerry commended Germany and France for their efforts on Thursday while noting that major work still lies ahead.The United States did not send a representative to the talks in Minsk but consulted closely with its allies. Mr. Kerry commended Germany and France for their efforts on Thursday while noting that major work still lies ahead.
“The parties have a long road ahead before achieving peace and the full restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty,” Mr. Kerry said in a statement on Thursday.“The parties have a long road ahead before achieving peace and the full restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty,” Mr. Kerry said in a statement on Thursday.
“We will judge the commitment of Russia and the separatists by their actions, not their words,” he said. “As we have long said, the United States is prepared to consider rolling back sanctions on Russia when the Minsk agreements of September 2014, and now this agreement, are fully implemented. That includes a full cease-fire, the withdrawal of all foreign troops and equipment from Ukraine, the full restoration of Ukrainian control of the international border, and the release of all hostages.”“We will judge the commitment of Russia and the separatists by their actions, not their words,” he said. “As we have long said, the United States is prepared to consider rolling back sanctions on Russia when the Minsk agreements of September 2014, and now this agreement, are fully implemented. That includes a full cease-fire, the withdrawal of all foreign troops and equipment from Ukraine, the full restoration of Ukrainian control of the international border, and the release of all hostages.”