Ukraine ceasefire aims to pave way for comprehensive settlement of crisis
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Version 0 of 1. A ceasefire in eastern Ukraine intended to pave the way for a comprehensive political settlement of the country’s crisis has been agreed in Minsk following a fraught 16 hours of overnight negotiations between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France. The marathon summit in the Belarus capital resulted in a pact early on Thursday providing for a ceasefire between Ukrainian government troops and Russian-backed separatists from Sunday, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the battle zone, which is to be demilitarised, amnesties on both sides and exchanges of prisoners and hostages. The agreement is clearly fragile. Previous attempts at a truce have utterly failed, and expectations are high of an upsurge in fighting before the 15 February deadline, particularly around the strategic node of Debaltseve, a railway hub held by thousands of Ukrainian troops besieged by the pro-Russia rebel forces. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, demanded that the surrounded Ukrainian forces lay down their arms. Related: Ukraine peace deal looks fragile in the extreme The Germany chancellor, Angela Merkel, spoke of a glimmer of hope that the agreement might take the edge off what has quickly become the worst security crisis in Europe since the end of the cold war, with the potential to assume much more dangerous dimensions. As the deal was reached, the IMF announced a $17.5bn loan to Ukraine, extending the lifeline keeping the country from bankruptcy. If the early peacemaking measures take effect, they are to be followed by more ambitious political moves aimed at an overall political settlement. By the end of the year Ukraine should have a new constitution, the rebel-held areas are to be granted decentralised “special status” and cross-border links with Russia, local elections are to be held in the breakaway areas and Kiev is slated to take control of the border with Russia. In European concessions to Putin, the Russian leader was told he would be party to negotiations over the detail and impact of Ukraine’s free trade agreement with the EU; a number of conditions have been attached to the special rights to be granted to the pro-Russia territories; central government funding of social and welfare benefits is to be restored to pro-Russia areas; and Germany and France promised to facilitate financial transfers and repair the broken banking system. Related: This is a make-or-break moment for Ukraine | Angus Roxburgh Merkel and the French president, François Hollande, went to Minsk to meet Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, for what was seen as a fateful summit following days of the most intensive diplomacy seen on Ukraine since the crisis erupted a year ago. Failure, it was feared, would have resulted in a major escalation of the conflict, with Poroshenko warning he could impose martial law on the whole country. “It was worth it,” said Merkel, capping one of the most frantic weeks of her 10-year chancellorship before dashing to Brussels for an EU summit. She cautioned against over-optimism, however, and was guarded about whether the 13-point peace agreement would be observed and implemented. “We have a glimmer of hope … but no illusions,” she said. The negotiations appeared extremely tense and highly combustible, with simmering hostility between Putin on the one hand and Merkel and Poroshenko on the other. At various points during the night, the talks looked close to collapse, with Poroshenko leaving the negotiating table and talking of being confronted with “unacceptable conditions”. “We have a very long night behind us, but we have managed to come to an agreement, to a ceasefire and a comprehensive political settlement for the Ukraine crisis,” said Hollande. The White House reacted with cautious optimism, calling for the “full and unambiguous implementation” of the agreement. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, also called for “complete restraint in the run-up to the Sunday ceasefire, including an immediate halt to the Russian and separatist assault on Debaltseve and other Ukrainian towns”. A sticking point was whether the separatist leaders, also in Minsk but not taking part directly in the summit, would sign off on the deal. Putin sought to force Poroshenko to negotiate directly with the separatist leaders. In the end the two main rebel leaders, from Donetsk and Luhansk, signed the 13-point plan, which also included an annex on the detail of the autonomy foreseen for their fiefdoms. Both Merkel and Hollande paid tribute to Putin for pressing the recalcitrant separatists into signing. Speaking after the talks, the Donetsk rebel leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, called the treaty a “major victory for the Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics”. The Luhansk leader, Igor Plotnitsky, said they would “give Ukraine a chance, so that the country changes its constitution and its attitude”. The ceasefire is to come into force at 00.01am local time on Sunday morning, following which heavy weapons on both sides are to be withdrawn up to 140km (86 miles) from the frontlines, depending on their range and calibre. The withdrawal will take place over a fortnight, and it and the ceasefire will be monitored by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The more ambitious political aspects of the pact stipulate that Kiev is to draft a new constitution by the end of the year, with a “key element” entailing decentralisation and special status for the breakaway regions. An eight-point annex to the accord lists elements of the special status, including local control of police, court, and judicial systems and a regime of “crossborder cooperation” between the eastern regions and Russia. Moscow fiercely resisted Ukrainian and European demands for Kiev to control the eastern border with Russia, arguing that it would lead to the encirclement and eventual suppression of the secessionist rebellion. The agreement says Ukraine will start to exercise control of the border once new local elections are held in the east, but arrangements will only finalised once the new constitution and the special status regime are in force. There are certain to be sharp disputes on these arrangements in the months ahead. Poroshenko promptly declared that Ukraine will “always be a unitary state” and will never be federalised. A separate document signed by the four leaders committed Putin to respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, although clearly last year’s Russian annexation of the Crimea peninsula will be ignored here. France and Germany agreed to trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the EU on energy issues and Russian gas supplies, on the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement concluded last year, and to joint monitoring of negotiations over the peace pact. “There’s a real chance to turn things for the better,” said Merkel. “We pledged to monitor the implementation. I assume that this will also be necessary.” The conflict in east Ukraine has claimed at least 5,400 lives. Nine people were reportedly killed and 35 wounded in east Ukraine on Thursday morning. |