Ukraine peace deal looks fragile in the extreme

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/12/ukraine-peace-deal-looks-fragile-in-the-extreme

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They came together at a moment of acute international crisis, three powerful leaders dedicated to peace in our time. They emerged, after 16 hours of gruelling, cut-and-thrust negotiations behind locked doors in the presidential place in Minsk, looking tired, rumpled, and grimly satisfied.

There was Angela Merkel, in trademark trouser suit, plainly exhausted after another sleepless night. It seemed like only yesterday that Germany’s chancellor was in Washington, briefing Barack Obama. Actually, it was, almost. Judging by her ashen face, this was world diplomacy’s version of Fifty Shades of Grey.

There was François Hollande, sporting a remarkably ill-fitting suit jacket that barely pinned in his paunch. France’s president has a penchant for grandiloquence. The leaders had agreed a global settlement and a global ceasefire, he declared, leaving analysts to puzzle over what that entailed.

Vladimir Putin was there, too, of course, doing his sulky schoolboy act. Russia’s president is like the kid at the back of the class throwing paper pellets and wishing he was somewhere else. In group photos, he looks like a wine waiter included by mistake. At one point in the talks, Putin snapped a green pencil in half in apparent frustration. Maybe he was pretending it was Nato.

Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, and the summit’s host, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, completed the Minsk lineup. For a man who suspected he was being screwed by all sides at once, Poroshenko seemed remarkably sanguine – a big teddy bear trying to make the best of a bad job. Lukashenko looked like he always looks – like a prison camp guard, appropriately enough, given his Putinesque government’s appalling human rights record.

As details of their painfully wrought deal gradually emerged, a picture formed of a highly complicated, optimistically sequenced, extremely fragile accord. All the leaders agreed that a ceasefire would come into force at midnight on Saturday night, Valentine’s Day. Both sides’ heavy weapons would be withdrawn from the combat zone in the ensuing weeks, under the eyes of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

After some confusion, it was confirmed the eastern Ukrainian separatists had agreed to the deal. Merkel praised Putin, a rare event, for leaning on the rebels to sign. But in an indication of how easily matters could still go wrong, argument persisted about control of the disputed strategic hub of Debaltseve, where fighting continued on Thursday.

“We proceed from the assumption that all parties will show restraint in the nearest future, before the start of the ceasefire,” Putin said. He blamed the length of the talks on Kiev’s refusal to talk directly to the rebels. A contact group including Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE will now attempt to facilitate future negotiations.

Putin, held primarily responsible for the crisis by the west, has good reason to be satisfied with the Minsk outcome. He welcomed, in particular, the provision of “special status” for eastern Ukraine. In turn, the Kremlin announced Russia’s consent to an agreement to respect Ukraine’s territory and sovereignty. But there was no mention of Crimea, annexed last year.

The pact envisages the demilitarisation of a buffer zone embracing last September’s ceasefire lines and the current front line, meaning in practice that the rebels will not have to hand back territory recently acquired – a key demand. Proposed confidence-building provisions including a general amnesty and prisoner swaps will also help Russian forces and their proxies avoid a reckoning for what Kiev sees as crimes of aggression.

Poroshenko has less reason to be satisfied. He insisted immediately after the talks ended that the accord did not grant autonomy to the rebel-held areas. But in a second stage of proposed measures, to be enacted by the end of the year, resumed Ukrainian control of the Ukraine-Russia border is contingent on Kiev granting greater powers of self-government to the eastern regions. For this to happen, the Ukrainian national constitution must be amended.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the Minsk announcements coincided with news that the IMF has agreed to help bail out almost bankrupt Ukraine to the tune of $17.5bn, part of an even bigger $40bn, four-year rescue package. This earnest nature of western support crudely sweetens the bitter pills Poroshenko has been obliged to swallow.

Merkel and Hollande said their countries were committed to monitoring the ceasefire and overseeing implementation of the wider agreements. What they would do if the ceasefire broke down again was not made clear. They later briefed EU leaders in Brussels – and, presumably, the US leadership, too. Given Russia’s past form, the US is likely to be sceptical that the deal will hold. David Cameron was wary. He said Putin would be judged by his actions, not his words.

All the same, after a week of febrile diplomacy, the Franco-German duo has cause for cautious celebration. They appear to have stopped the fighting – for now, at least – prevented further escalation, headed off US pressure to supply arms to Kiev, and dragged the recalcitrant Putin back on board. Much work remained to be done, Merkel said, but there was a “glimmer of hope”. For now, Europe can breathe a brief sigh of relief.