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A Gamble on Peace in Ukraine A Gamble on Peace in Ukraine
(about 1 hour later)
PARIS — President François Hollande of France is not known as a high-risk gambler, but even he admitted last week that his last-minute mission in search of peace in Ukraine was something of a long shot.PARIS — President François Hollande of France is not known as a high-risk gambler, but even he admitted last week that his last-minute mission in search of peace in Ukraine was something of a long shot.
In fact, according to one report, when Mr. Hollande stepped up to the podium in Paris on Thursday to announce his plans, he still had not received the go-ahead from the Kremlin for a meeting in Moscow with President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday. It was delivered during the news conference.In fact, according to one report, when Mr. Hollande stepped up to the podium in Paris on Thursday to announce his plans, he still had not received the go-ahead from the Kremlin for a meeting in Moscow with President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday. It was delivered during the news conference.
The surprise initiative, taken in concert with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, staked out the middle ground for a political resolution to the war raging in eastern Ukraine. The European pair were playing the “good cops” to the American “bad cop” now publicly debating whether to send “lethal” defensive weapons to the beleaguered Ukrainian Army.The surprise initiative, taken in concert with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, staked out the middle ground for a political resolution to the war raging in eastern Ukraine. The European pair were playing the “good cops” to the American “bad cop” now publicly debating whether to send “lethal” defensive weapons to the beleaguered Ukrainian Army.
It was a classic maneuver, which may or may not have been coordinated with Washington. Nothing concentrates diplomatic efforts like the threat of military escalation, which in this case is firmly opposed by both Germany and France.It was a classic maneuver, which may or may not have been coordinated with Washington. Nothing concentrates diplomatic efforts like the threat of military escalation, which in this case is firmly opposed by both Germany and France.
By Monday, it was still unclear whether the European mission would bring peace. If not, and if the United Statesdecides to proceed with a delivery of weapons, it would split the Atlantic alliance that until now has maintained a united front in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Therein lies the Europeans’ high-stakes gamble. By Monday, it was still unclear whether the European mission would bring peace. If not, and if the United States decides to proceed with a delivery of weapons, it would split the Atlantic alliance that until now has maintained a united front in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Therein lies the Europeans’ high-stakes gamble.
There is another issue dogging the Western alliance: Ukraine’s eventual integration into NATO. Nobody raised this question at the news conference on Thursday, but Mr. Hollande answered it anyway.There is another issue dogging the Western alliance: Ukraine’s eventual integration into NATO. Nobody raised this question at the news conference on Thursday, but Mr. Hollande answered it anyway.
“France is not favorable to Ukraine’s entering the Atlantic alliance,” he said. “Let this be absolutely clear.”“France is not favorable to Ukraine’s entering the Atlantic alliance,” he said. “Let this be absolutely clear.”
“I say this for the Russians who are always concerned, who think that this is the work of the Americans,” Mr. Hollande added. “But no, I think we should decide these questions, I was going to say, as Europeans. We are on the same continent, and we must decide these questions.”“I say this for the Russians who are always concerned, who think that this is the work of the Americans,” Mr. Hollande added. “But no, I think we should decide these questions, I was going to say, as Europeans. We are on the same continent, and we must decide these questions.”
His insistence on the point suggested that he had an audience in mind, maybe three. One was certainly Ukraine, where Parliament voted overwhelmingly in December to rescind the country’s nonaligned status and “deepen cooperation with NATO in order to achieve the criteria for membership.”His insistence on the point suggested that he had an audience in mind, maybe three. One was certainly Ukraine, where Parliament voted overwhelmingly in December to rescind the country’s nonaligned status and “deepen cooperation with NATO in order to achieve the criteria for membership.”
Another was Russia, where Ukraine’s entry into NATO has always been a red flag. When the Ukrainian Parliament voted, the reaction in Moscow was swift.Another was Russia, where Ukraine’s entry into NATO has always been a red flag. When the Ukrainian Parliament voted, the reaction in Moscow was swift.
“De facto, this amounts to a request to join NATO which would transform Ukraine into a potential military adversary of Russia,” Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev said on Facebook.“De facto, this amounts to a request to join NATO which would transform Ukraine into a potential military adversary of Russia,” Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev said on Facebook.
A third may be Washington. Some diplomats and observers in Paris believe that NATO membership for Ukraine — which was doggedly pursued by the Bush administration in 2008, and blocked by France and Germany — has been kept on the table by the Obama administration, albeit discreetly.A third may be Washington. Some diplomats and observers in Paris believe that NATO membership for Ukraine — which was doggedly pursued by the Bush administration in 2008, and blocked by France and Germany — has been kept on the table by the Obama administration, albeit discreetly.
“It is the perception we have,” said Arnaud Danjean, a French member of the European Parliament. “Even if it is not as explicit as it was under Bush and Clinton, it is still a point of tension.”“It is the perception we have,” said Arnaud Danjean, a French member of the European Parliament. “Even if it is not as explicit as it was under Bush and Clinton, it is still a point of tension.”
The Obama administration insists only that Ukraine has the right to choose its security alliance.The Obama administration insists only that Ukraine has the right to choose its security alliance.
“Russia has simply been unwilling to allow Ukraine to make its own decisions about its future, and we cannot let that stand,” Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. told a group of European journalists last week.“Russia has simply been unwilling to allow Ukraine to make its own decisions about its future, and we cannot let that stand,” Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. told a group of European journalists last week.
By raising the NATO issue at such a delicate moment, Mr. Hollande was taking another gamble — perhaps to create bargaining room for the tough talks ahead but again at the risk of exposing a rift within the Western alliance, and its Ukrainian partner.By raising the NATO issue at such a delicate moment, Mr. Hollande was taking another gamble — perhaps to create bargaining room for the tough talks ahead but again at the risk of exposing a rift within the Western alliance, and its Ukrainian partner.
According to Thomas Gomart, a Russia expert at the French Institute of International Relations, the greater risk is to stoke a wider war.According to Thomas Gomart, a Russia expert at the French Institute of International Relations, the greater risk is to stoke a wider war.
“The main thing is not to be dragged further into it,” he said. “It is crucial to maintain contact with Putin, to have a diplomatic approach, because we are on the verge of something dangerous.”“The main thing is not to be dragged further into it,” he said. “It is crucial to maintain contact with Putin, to have a diplomatic approach, because we are on the verge of something dangerous.”