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| Version 7 | Version 8 |
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| General Election 2015: Poll suggests political figures could lose seats to SNP | General Election 2015: Poll suggests political figures could lose seats to SNP |
| (about 17 hours later) | |
| A new poll by a Tory peer has suggested Labour's Douglas Alexander and Lib Dem minister Danny Alexander could lose their Westminster seats to the SNP. | A new poll by a Tory peer has suggested Labour's Douglas Alexander and Lib Dem minister Danny Alexander could lose their Westminster seats to the SNP. |
| Lord Ashcroft looked at 16 Scottish constituencies and indicated the SNP was ahead in 15 of them. | Lord Ashcroft looked at 16 Scottish constituencies and indicated the SNP was ahead in 15 of them. |
| The research comes as other polls suggest the nationalists are on course to win more UK parliamentary seats. | The research comes as other polls suggest the nationalists are on course to win more UK parliamentary seats. |
| Currently Labour has 41 MPs, the Lib Dems have 11, the SNP has six and the Tories have one. | Currently Labour has 41 MPs, the Lib Dems have 11, the SNP has six and the Tories have one. |
| This latest survey took place between 5 and 30 January and involved telephoning 16,007 adults - the majority of whom live in areas where more voters said "Yes" in the Scottish independence referendum than said "No". | This latest survey took place between 5 and 30 January and involved telephoning 16,007 adults - the majority of whom live in areas where more voters said "Yes" in the Scottish independence referendum than said "No". |
| It suggested that of the seven Glasgow seats held by Labour, six could be lost to the SNP. | It suggested that of the seven Glasgow seats held by Labour, six could be lost to the SNP. |
| It also polled in the Inverness and Gordon areas where the majority opinion in the referendum was "No". | It also polled in the Inverness and Gordon areas where the majority opinion in the referendum was "No". |
| Party swing | Party swing |
| One thousand adults were surveyed in the Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey constituency of Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander. | One thousand adults were surveyed in the Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey constituency of Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander. |
| They were asked a series of questions including: "If there was a general election for the Westminster parliament tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" | They were asked a series of questions including: "If there was a general election for the Westminster parliament tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" |
| Ten percent of respondents said they would vote Lib Dem, with 38% saying they would back the SNP. | Ten percent of respondents said they would vote Lib Dem, with 38% saying they would back the SNP. |
| A spokesman for Mr Alexander said the election in the Highlands was between a "nationalist candidate who wants to use the Highlands as a 'step on the road' to independence, or Danny, who for 10 years has delivered for Highlanders". | A spokesman for Mr Alexander said the election in the Highlands was between a "nationalist candidate who wants to use the Highlands as a 'step on the road' to independence, or Danny, who for 10 years has delivered for Highlanders". |
| He added: "With the SNP determined to re-run the referendum they have taken their eye off the ball, with Highland issues always coming second to their separation obsession. | He added: "With the SNP determined to re-run the referendum they have taken their eye off the ball, with Highland issues always coming second to their separation obsession. |
| "We are confident that Highlanders will continue to back Danny when presented with that choice." | "We are confident that Highlanders will continue to back Danny when presented with that choice." |
| In Douglas Alexander's Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency - which he held with a majority of 16,614 in 2010 - 1,000 adults were interviewed. | In Douglas Alexander's Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency - which he held with a majority of 16,614 in 2010 - 1,000 adults were interviewed. |
| Again, interviewees answered a series of questions including: "If there was a general election for the Westminster parliament tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" | Again, interviewees answered a series of questions including: "If there was a general election for the Westminster parliament tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" |
| Based on what they said, the poll indicated the Labour politician would win 28% of the vote but would still lose the seat to the SNP, suggesting the party would gain 38% of the vote. | Based on what they said, the poll indicated the Labour politician would win 28% of the vote but would still lose the seat to the SNP, suggesting the party would gain 38% of the vote. |
| Biggest party | Biggest party |
| Commenting on the Ashcroft poll, Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy admitted his party was "well behind and has a big gap to close". | Commenting on the Ashcroft poll, Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy admitted his party was "well behind and has a big gap to close". |
| However, he added: "But in the end the only people who will benefit from these polls are David Cameron and the Tories. | However, he added: "But in the end the only people who will benefit from these polls are David Cameron and the Tories. |
| "It is a simple fact that the single biggest party gets to form the next government. | "It is a simple fact that the single biggest party gets to form the next government. |
| "The more seats the SNP get from Labour, the more likely it is the Tories who will be the biggest party and David Cameron will get into government through the back door. | "The more seats the SNP get from Labour, the more likely it is the Tories who will be the biggest party and David Cameron will get into government through the back door. |
| "That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it's what might happen if Scotland votes SNP." | "That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it's what might happen if Scotland votes SNP." |
| Follow the election story | Follow the election story |
| In an online blog, Lord Ashcroft said that most of his constituency research was focused on marginal seats. | In an online blog, Lord Ashcroft said that most of his constituency research was focused on marginal seats. |
| However, he explained that in a post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat was "rather obsolete". | However, he explained that in a post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat was "rather obsolete". |
| After publishing the research, Lord Ashcroft cautioned: "As ever, it is vital to remember that these polls are a snapshot, not a prediction." | After publishing the research, Lord Ashcroft cautioned: "As ever, it is vital to remember that these polls are a snapshot, not a prediction." |
| He added: "The Labour majorities in some of these seats are such that even a swing of this magnitude has not put the SNP far ahead - for example, just three points in Glasgow South West and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, and six points in Glasgow North West. | He added: "The Labour majorities in some of these seats are such that even a swing of this magnitude has not put the SNP far ahead - for example, just three points in Glasgow South West and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, and six points in Glasgow North West. |
| "With a vigorous Labour campaign there remains room for movement before May." | "With a vigorous Labour campaign there remains room for movement before May." |
| 'Nothing for granted' | |
| SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said the set of polls was "encouraging" for her party. | |
| She told the BBC: "They show that Labour is paying a heavy price for its alliance with the Tories and the people understand that the way to make Scotland's voice heard at Westminster, loudly and clearly, is to vote SNP." | |
| However, Ms Sturgeon added that her party was taking "nothing for granted" and would be working flat out right up until election day. | |
| The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, said the poll "confirms that Ed Miliband simply isn't trusted by Scots". | The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, said the poll "confirms that Ed Miliband simply isn't trusted by Scots". |
| She added: "It's increasingly clear that we face a choice between the security and leadership of the Scottish Conservatives, and the total chaos of a weakened Labour Party which staggers over the line thanks to SNP back room deals." | She added: "It's increasingly clear that we face a choice between the security and leadership of the Scottish Conservatives, and the total chaos of a weakened Labour Party which staggers over the line thanks to SNP back room deals." |
| Voters will go to the ballot box on 7 May to choose who will represent them in Scotland's 59 Westminster constituencies. | Voters will go to the ballot box on 7 May to choose who will represent them in Scotland's 59 Westminster constituencies. |