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| General Election 2015: Poll suggests political figures could lose seats to SNP | General Election 2015: Poll suggests political figures could lose seats to SNP |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| A new poll by a Tory peer has suggested Labour's Douglas Alexander and Lib Dem minister Danny Alexander could lose their Westminster seats to the SNP. | |
| Lord Ashcroft looked at 16 Scottish constituencies and indicated the SNP was ahead in 15 of them. | Lord Ashcroft looked at 16 Scottish constituencies and indicated the SNP was ahead in 15 of them. |
| The research comes as other polls suggest the nationalists are on course to win more UK parliamentary seats. | |
| Currently Labour has 40 MPs, the Lib Dems have 11, the SNP has six and the Tories have one. | Currently Labour has 40 MPs, the Lib Dems have 11, the SNP has six and the Tories have one. |
| This latest survey involved telephone interviews with 16,007 adults between 5 and 30 January. | This latest survey involved telephone interviews with 16,007 adults between 5 and 30 January. |
| The poll says that of the seven Glasgow seats held by Labour, six could be lost to the SNP. | The poll says that of the seven Glasgow seats held by Labour, six could be lost to the SNP. |
| One thousand adults were surveyed in the Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey constituency of Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander. | |
| It suggested that he would attract 10% of the vote, with the SNP winning the seat with 38% of the vote. | It suggested that he would attract 10% of the vote, with the SNP winning the seat with 38% of the vote. |
| A spokesman for Mr Alexander said the election in the Highlands was between a "nationalist candidate who wants to use the Highlands as a 'step on the road' to independence, or Danny, who for 10 years has delivered for Highlanders". | A spokesman for Mr Alexander said the election in the Highlands was between a "nationalist candidate who wants to use the Highlands as a 'step on the road' to independence, or Danny, who for 10 years has delivered for Highlanders". |
| He added: "With the SNP determined to re-run the referendum they have taken their eye off the ball, with Highland issues always coming second to their separation obsession. | He added: "With the SNP determined to re-run the referendum they have taken their eye off the ball, with Highland issues always coming second to their separation obsession. |
| "We are confident that Highlanders will continue to back Danny when presented with that choice." | "We are confident that Highlanders will continue to back Danny when presented with that choice." |
| In Douglas Alexander's Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency - which he held with a majority of 16,614 in 2010 - 1,000 adults were interviewed. | In Douglas Alexander's Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency - which he held with a majority of 16,614 in 2010 - 1,000 adults were interviewed. |
| Based on what they said, the poll indicated the Labour politician would win 28% of the vote but would still lose the seat to the SNP, suggesting the party would gain 38% of the vote. | Based on what they said, the poll indicated the Labour politician would win 28% of the vote but would still lose the seat to the SNP, suggesting the party would gain 38% of the vote. |
| Commenting on the Ashcroft poll, Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy admitted his party was "well behind and has a big gap to close". | Commenting on the Ashcroft poll, Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy admitted his party was "well behind and has a big gap to close". |
| However, he added: "But in the end the only people who will benefit from these polls are David Cameron and the Tories. | However, he added: "But in the end the only people who will benefit from these polls are David Cameron and the Tories. |
| "It is a simple fact that the single biggest party gets to form the next government. | "It is a simple fact that the single biggest party gets to form the next government. |
| "The more seats the SNP get from Labour, the more likely it is the Tories who will be the biggest party and David Cameron will get into government through the back door. | "The more seats the SNP get from Labour, the more likely it is the Tories who will be the biggest party and David Cameron will get into government through the back door. |
| "That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it's what might happen if Scotland votes SNP." | "That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it's what might happen if Scotland votes SNP." |
| In an online blog, Lord Ashcroft said that most of his constituency research was focused on marginal seats. | In an online blog, Lord Ashcroft said that most of his constituency research was focused on marginal seats. |
| However, he explained that in a post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat was "rather obsolete". | However, he explained that in a post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat was "rather obsolete". |
| Lord Ashcroft added: "Huge swings to the SNP in national polls suggest that even some MPs who must have thought they had a job for life are threatened. | Lord Ashcroft added: "Huge swings to the SNP in national polls suggest that even some MPs who must have thought they had a job for life are threatened. |
| "I decided to look primarily at Labour seats - including some with colossal majorities - in areas which voted yes to independence, or where the result was very close." | "I decided to look primarily at Labour seats - including some with colossal majorities - in areas which voted yes to independence, or where the result was very close." |
| Follow the election story | Follow the election story |
| After publishing the research, Lord Ashcroft cautioned: "As ever, it is vital to remember that these polls are a snapshot, not a prediction." | After publishing the research, Lord Ashcroft cautioned: "As ever, it is vital to remember that these polls are a snapshot, not a prediction." |
| He added: "The Labour majorities in some of these seats are such that even a swing of this magnitude has not put the SNP far ahead - for example, just three points in Glasgow South West and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, and six points in Glasgow North West. | He added: "The Labour majorities in some of these seats are such that even a swing of this magnitude has not put the SNP far ahead - for example, just three points in Glasgow South West and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, and six points in Glasgow North West. |
| "With a vigorous Labour campaign there remains room for movement before May." | "With a vigorous Labour campaign there remains room for movement before May." |
| Voters will go to the ballot box on 7 May to choose who will represent them in Scotland's 59 Westminster constituencies. | Voters will go to the ballot box on 7 May to choose who will represent them in Scotland's 59 Westminster constituencies. |
| Professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, John Curtice, has been following the polls ahead of the election. | Professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, John Curtice, has been following the polls ahead of the election. |
| On the overall picture, Prof Curtice says on his What Scotland Thinks website: "In the 2010 general election, Labour won 42% of the vote in Scotland, the SNP 20%, the Liberal Democrats 19%, the Conservatives 17%, UKIP 1% and the Greens 1%. | On the overall picture, Prof Curtice says on his What Scotland Thinks website: "In the 2010 general election, Labour won 42% of the vote in Scotland, the SNP 20%, the Liberal Democrats 19%, the Conservatives 17%, UKIP 1% and the Greens 1%. |
| "If the difference between those figures and the parties' ratings in our latest poll of polls were to be replicated in each and every constituency, the Conservatives would not have any seats, Labour six, the Liberal Democrats one, the SNP 52, UKIP none, and the Greens none." | "If the difference between those figures and the parties' ratings in our latest poll of polls were to be replicated in each and every constituency, the Conservatives would not have any seats, Labour six, the Liberal Democrats one, the SNP 52, UKIP none, and the Greens none." |