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Death rate up by a third in January | |
(about 5 hours later) | |
The current death rate in England and Wales is running about one-third higher than its normal rate for this time of year, official statistics show. | The current death rate in England and Wales is running about one-third higher than its normal rate for this time of year, official statistics show. |
In the two weeks ending on 23 January, 28,000 people died, the Office for National Statistics figures show. | In the two weeks ending on 23 January, 28,000 people died, the Office for National Statistics figures show. |
Over the previous five years, the average number of deaths for the same period stood at about 21,000. | Over the previous five years, the average number of deaths for the same period stood at about 21,000. |
Experts say flu could be the driving force, although the precise causes will not be known for some time. | |
Prof John Newton, chief knowledge officer at Public Health England (PHE), which monitors death rates, said there had been a substantial increase in the numbers since Christmas. | Prof John Newton, chief knowledge officer at Public Health England (PHE), which monitors death rates, said there had been a substantial increase in the numbers since Christmas. |
Although it was less apparent from the raw data, PHE's own analysis has found that - even taking the season into account - deaths among elderly people have now been significantly elevated for six weeks. | Although it was less apparent from the raw data, PHE's own analysis has found that - even taking the season into account - deaths among elderly people have now been significantly elevated for six weeks. |
The death rate has risen by 3,700 people a week since early December. Of that more than 3,000 are accounted for by over-75s. | The death rate has risen by 3,700 people a week since early December. Of that more than 3,000 are accounted for by over-75s. |
The usual key causes of excess winter deaths are cold weather, influenza and gastrointestinal infection. | The usual key causes of excess winter deaths are cold weather, influenza and gastrointestinal infection. |
Estimating exactly which has done what, however, will take some time. | Estimating exactly which has done what, however, will take some time. |
'Flu season' | 'Flu season' |
There is evidence, however, that flu may be a crucial driver of this year's elevated deaths. | There is evidence, however, that flu may be a crucial driver of this year's elevated deaths. |
According to PHE statistics, both GPs and hospitals are spending much more time dealing with flu than they did last year, despite a similar vaccination rate among the key target groups. | According to PHE statistics, both GPs and hospitals are spending much more time dealing with flu than they did last year, despite a similar vaccination rate among the key target groups. |
Furthermore, the H3N2 sub-type - a prevalent flu virus at the moment - takes a particular strain on elderly people. | Furthermore, the H3N2 sub-type - a prevalent flu virus at the moment - takes a particular strain on elderly people. |
An important role for this virus is therefore consistent with a higher death rate among the elderly, who have been encouraged to get vaccinated. | An important role for this virus is therefore consistent with a higher death rate among the elderly, who have been encouraged to get vaccinated. |
This year, the proportion of vulnerable people who were vaccinated was the same as last year. | This year, the proportion of vulnerable people who were vaccinated was the same as last year. |
Prof Newton said PHE tries to anticipate sub-types of the virus that will be circulating to ensure it can be vaccinated against. | Prof Newton said PHE tries to anticipate sub-types of the virus that will be circulating to ensure it can be vaccinated against. |
"This year, it is the right type," he said. | "This year, it is the right type," he said. |
"But there can be [mutation] so that the circulating type might not be as well matched at the end of the flu season as it was at the beginning." | "But there can be [mutation] so that the circulating type might not be as well matched at the end of the flu season as it was at the beginning." |
Failure of health care? | Failure of health care? |
One explanation that senior civil servants in the Department of Health have suggested is that the death rate may also be higher because of last year's mild winter. | One explanation that senior civil servants in the Department of Health have suggested is that the death rate may also be higher because of last year's mild winter. |
An unusually large number of frail people may have survived last year, but are succumbing to the flu and cold this year. | An unusually large number of frail people may have survived last year, but are succumbing to the flu and cold this year. |
The forces that are driving the higher death rates would certainly have contributed to the problems facing A&E units, which have struggled under their heavy case loads. | The forces that are driving the higher death rates would certainly have contributed to the problems facing A&E units, which have struggled under their heavy case loads. |
But Prof Newton said the problems both in A&Es and social care are unlikely to have contributed materially to the higher death rates, noting the chronology of the surge. | But Prof Newton said the problems both in A&Es and social care are unlikely to have contributed materially to the higher death rates, noting the chronology of the surge. |
"People might think perhaps that some of these deaths are the result of a failure of health care or social care. There's very little evidence of that," he added. | "People might think perhaps that some of these deaths are the result of a failure of health care or social care. There's very little evidence of that," he added. |