Q&A: Should US send lethal military assistance to Ukraine?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/03/us-lethal-military-assistance-ukraine

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As the crisis in eastern Ukraine shows no sign of abating despite the ceasefire agreement reached in September 2014, pressure is growing for western countries to provide lethal military assistance to Ukraine and ramp up their provision of non-lethal aid.

On 2 February, the Atlantic Council, together with the Brookings Institution, issued a new report urging the US to provide $3bn in lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine. But it is a controversial idea that could result in a significant intensification of the violence in the region and runs the risk of direct confrontation with President Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

So why are such proposals gaining traction?

The Ukrainian government has suffered significant military setbacks in recent weeks as it has become increasingly clear that the ceasefire is not working. Nato estimates that Russia-backed separatists have taken about 500 square kilometres of territory in the past 16 weeks, including the heavily contested Donetsk airport.

Related: Ukraine: US considers military help for Kiev as separatists plan to mobilise army

This week, separatist leaders announced plans to recruit 100,000 additional fighters for the war against Kiev.

Western governments have also accused Russia of sending significant quantities of heavy weapons to the insurgents, including armoured personnel carriers, heavy battle tanks, artillery, and heavy rocket launchers. Nato experts estimate that about 1,000 Russian combat troops and advisers are operating inside Ukraine, although Kiev argues that number is much higher.

Moscow maintains it has no forces inside Ukraine and is not a party to what it calls the “civil war” in that country. Moscow has accused Kiev of seeking to resolve the crisis exclusively by military means.

Who supports giving weapons to Ukraine?

The Atlantic Council report was authored by eight former US officials, including a former top Nato military commander, a former US ambassador to Nato, two former US ambassadors to Ukraine, and a former deputy secretary of state.

These experts join several influential US senators, including Republican John McCain and Democrat Robert Menendez. According to The New York Times, secretary of state John Kerry, defense secretary Chuck Hagel, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Martin Dempsey, and Nato commander Philip Breedlove all are now open to the possibility of such aid to Ukraine.

President Barack Obama’s national security adviser, Susan Rice, is also said to be softening her long-standing resistance to stepped-up military aid to Kiev.

In addition, British historian Timothy Garton Ash urged the west to give Ukraine “modern defensive weapons to counter Russia’s modern offensive ones.”

Related: Putin must be stopped. And sometimes only guns can stop guns | Timothy Garton Ash

The US Congress has already passed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, which allocates $350 million for the administration to provide military aid to Ukraine. Obama has considerable leeway to decide what equipment to provide and when. The Atlantic Council proposal urges spending about eight times as much.

What sort of aid is being considered?

Concerning enhanced non-lethal aid, the Atlantic Council report urges the west to provide advanced radar systems that can help neutralise the separatists’ multiple-launch rocket systems. It also calls for reconnaissance drones, as well as electronic countermeasures to combat drones under separatist or Russian control.

It calls for secure communications equipment that cannot be intercepted by the Russian military, more medical equipment, and armoured Humvees.

As for lethal aid, the report calls for light anti-armour missiles for countering separatists’ tanks and armoured personnel carriers. It urges Nato members that have Soviet-style antiaircraft technology to share it with Ukraine while US military experts devise a way to rapidly modernise Ukraine’s air defenses. It calls on Washington to urge Nato members to also provide lethal military aid.

It stresses that the west must “steer clear of equipment that is of such technological sophistication that it would require US or Nato personnel to operate or maintain” and cautions against “a direct US or Nato presence on the ground.”

What are the risks?

Many argue that providing more military aid to Ukraine would force Moscow to counter by increasing its own support for the separatists. Such an escalation would certainly produce more violence in a war that has already seen thousands killed, hundreds of thousands displaced, and billions of dollars’ worth of damage inflicted.

Some analysts say the west is unlikely to ever give Ukraine the level of assistance that would be needed to defeat the Russia-backed insurgency.

And stepping up lethal assistance would also provide fodder for Russian claims that the conflict in Ukraine is really a western bid to contain or weaken Russia.