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ISIS Tactics Questioned as Hostages Dwindle ISIS Tactics Questioned as Hostages Dwindle
(3 days later)
AMMAN, Jordan — The extremists of the Islamic State managed to parlay their Japanese and Jordanian hostages into 12 days of worldwide publicity. But other than depleting their supply of foreign hostages, did they really accomplish anything? AMMAN, Jordan — The extremists of the Islamic State managed to parlay their Japanese and Jordanian hostages into 12 days of worldwide publicity. But other than depleting their supply of foreign hostages, did they really accomplish anything?
Analysts who study terrorist groups were skeptical, and many said the militants’ tactics had backfired badly, particularly in Jordan. The extremists apparently killed two Japanese men, but failed to achieve either of their professed goals: $200 million in ransom, and the release of a female Iraqi suicide bomber from death row in Jordan.Analysts who study terrorist groups were skeptical, and many said the militants’ tactics had backfired badly, particularly in Jordan. The extremists apparently killed two Japanese men, but failed to achieve either of their professed goals: $200 million in ransom, and the release of a female Iraqi suicide bomber from death row in Jordan.
Their threat to kill a captive Jordanian air force pilot (and their failure to produce evidence that he was alive) did not achieve the intended effect of undermining support for Jordan’s role in the international coalition bombing the Islamic State. Now even skeptical Jordanians have begun rallying around their government’s position and denouncing the extremists.Their threat to kill a captive Jordanian air force pilot (and their failure to produce evidence that he was alive) did not achieve the intended effect of undermining support for Jordan’s role in the international coalition bombing the Islamic State. Now even skeptical Jordanians have begun rallying around their government’s position and denouncing the extremists.
That shift comes as the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has nearly run out of Western or other foreign hostages, as fewer aid workers and journalists dare to enter Syrian territory. Last August, when the American-led bombing campaign began, the group held at least 23 Western hostages; now they are believed to have four hostages viewed as prominent internationally, including two Westerners. The extremists continue to hold an untold number of Syrians.That shift comes as the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has nearly run out of Western or other foreign hostages, as fewer aid workers and journalists dare to enter Syrian territory. Last August, when the American-led bombing campaign began, the group held at least 23 Western hostages; now they are believed to have four hostages viewed as prominent internationally, including two Westerners. The extremists continue to hold an untold number of Syrians.
Over the weekend, the group released a video showing the apparent beheading of the journalist Kenji Goto, who was captured when he went to Syria last October in a bid to find Haruna Yukawa, a Japanese adventurer who disappeared there in August. A video showing a still image of Mr. Yukawa beheaded was released by the group on Jan. 24.Over the weekend, the group released a video showing the apparent beheading of the journalist Kenji Goto, who was captured when he went to Syria last October in a bid to find Haruna Yukawa, a Japanese adventurer who disappeared there in August. A video showing a still image of Mr. Yukawa beheaded was released by the group on Jan. 24.
Beginning on Jan. 20, Mr. Goto was forced by his captors to plead for his life, directing those entreaties at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Similarly heart-rending messages were sent from his wife and mother in his final days.Beginning on Jan. 20, Mr. Goto was forced by his captors to plead for his life, directing those entreaties at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Similarly heart-rending messages were sent from his wife and mother in his final days.
In Mr. Goto’s apparent last moments, the Islamic State’s executioner, known as Jihadi John for his British-accented English, who appears in many of the beheading videos, taunted Mr. Abe: “This knife will not only slaughter Kenji, but will also carry on and cause carnage wherever your people are found.”In Mr. Goto’s apparent last moments, the Islamic State’s executioner, known as Jihadi John for his British-accented English, who appears in many of the beheading videos, taunted Mr. Abe: “This knife will not only slaughter Kenji, but will also carry on and cause carnage wherever your people are found.”
Mr. Abe responded that Japan “will cooperate with the international community and make the terrorists pay the price.” He added, “I’m outraged by the despicable terrorist act, and I will never forgive the terrorists.”Mr. Abe responded that Japan “will cooperate with the international community and make the terrorists pay the price.” He added, “I’m outraged by the despicable terrorist act, and I will never forgive the terrorists.”
Jordanian officials were more circumspect, as their pilot remains at the extremists’ whim. Jordan’s offer to trade him for the suicide bomber, Sajida al-Rishawi, remains on the table.Jordanian officials were more circumspect, as their pilot remains at the extremists’ whim. Jordan’s offer to trade him for the suicide bomber, Sajida al-Rishawi, remains on the table.
But Jordanian society underwent a sea change in its attitude toward the coalition last week, as the fate of the pilot, First Lt. Moaz al-Kasasbeh, transfixed the country and its powerful tribes. Even many Jordanians who at the beginning of the week said the hostage crisis showed they were involved in someone else’s war seemed to change their minds, especially after the horrible images of Mr. Goto’s killing emerged.But Jordanian society underwent a sea change in its attitude toward the coalition last week, as the fate of the pilot, First Lt. Moaz al-Kasasbeh, transfixed the country and its powerful tribes. Even many Jordanians who at the beginning of the week said the hostage crisis showed they were involved in someone else’s war seemed to change their minds, especially after the horrible images of Mr. Goto’s killing emerged.
“From Day 1 of Jordan joining the coalition against ISIS, part of our people believed it’s not our war,” said Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies here. “Another part felt that sooner or later it will be, so it’s better to fight them in the backyard of another country than in our own bedrooms.”“From Day 1 of Jordan joining the coalition against ISIS, part of our people believed it’s not our war,” said Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies here. “Another part felt that sooner or later it will be, so it’s better to fight them in the backyard of another country than in our own bedrooms.”
“Moaz is in every bedroom in Jordan now,” said Naif al-Amoun, a member of Jordan’s Parliament who is from Lieutenant Kasasbeh’s hometown, Karak. “We are not going to let anyone exploit this issue to turn us against the government.” “Moaz is in every bedroom in Jordan now,” said Naif Laymoun, a member of Jordan’s Parliament who is from Lieutenant Kasasbeh’s hometown, Karak. “We are not going to let anyone exploit this issue to turn us against the government.”
Mr. Amoun added, “In the last couple of days, the treatment of the pilot backfired against ISIS. Instead of dividing Jordan, Jordanians are more united behind their government.”Mr. Amoun added, “In the last couple of days, the treatment of the pilot backfired against ISIS. Instead of dividing Jordan, Jordanians are more united behind their government.”
Ora Szekely, a political scientist at Clark University in Massachusetts who studies extremist groups like ISIS, said that nonstate actors like the Islamic State “are much less coherent and cohesive than they want us to think they are.”Ora Szekely, a political scientist at Clark University in Massachusetts who studies extremist groups like ISIS, said that nonstate actors like the Islamic State “are much less coherent and cohesive than they want us to think they are.”
Since the extremists seemed to have no coherent strategy in how they handled the Japanese and Jordanian hostages, their most likely goal was public relations — and it was a flop, she said. “There is a certain amount of making this up as they go along.”Since the extremists seemed to have no coherent strategy in how they handled the Japanese and Jordanian hostages, their most likely goal was public relations — and it was a flop, she said. “There is a certain amount of making this up as they go along.”
“Killing the second Japanese was a big mistake and they got nothing for it,” said Clark McCauley, a psychology professor at Bryn Mawr College who studies political radicalization. “These people are in many ways their own worst enemies. You just have to give them time and space and their extremity will alienate their own base.”“Killing the second Japanese was a big mistake and they got nothing for it,” said Clark McCauley, a psychology professor at Bryn Mawr College who studies political radicalization. “These people are in many ways their own worst enemies. You just have to give them time and space and their extremity will alienate their own base.”
Hassan Abu Hanieh, an Amman-based political analyst who follows extreme Islamist groups, cautioned that the Islamic State still has the pilot — assuming he is alive — and may well use his fate to try to shift Jordanian public opinion. Jordan is one of four Arab countries participating in airstrikes against ISIS.Hassan Abu Hanieh, an Amman-based political analyst who follows extreme Islamist groups, cautioned that the Islamic State still has the pilot — assuming he is alive — and may well use his fate to try to shift Jordanian public opinion. Jordan is one of four Arab countries participating in airstrikes against ISIS.
While ISIS cares little about public opinion in Japan — or Britain or the United States, two other countries whose nationals have been beheaded — Jordan is a different matter. “It has goals for expansion into Jordan, and when ISIS realized this is a losing game on their end, they stopped the game and killed the Japanese, but not Lt. Kasasbeh,” Mr. Hanieh said. While ISIS cares little about public opinion in Japan — or Britain or the United States, two other countries whose nationals have been beheaded — Jordan is a different matter. “It has goals for expansion into Jordan, and when ISIS realized this is a losing game on their end, they stopped the game and killed the Japanese, but not Lieutenant Kasasbeh,” Mr. Hanieh said.
Other than the Jordanian pilot, ISIS is known to be holding two Western hostages: the British journalist John Cantile, who has made a series of videotaped speeches on behalf of ISIS, and an American female aid worker, whose identity is being kept confidential. Another female aid worker from an undisclosed country is also being held. In addition, three staff workers for the International Committee of the Red Cross disappeared in October 2013, although no information has been released about their identities or who abducted them. Other than the Jordanian pilot, ISIS is known to be holding two Western hostages: the British journalist John Cantlie, who has made a series of videotaped speeches on behalf of ISIS, and an American female aid worker, whose identity is being kept confidential. Another female aid worker from an undisclosed country is also being held. In addition, three staff workers for the International Committee of the Red Cross disappeared in October 2013, although no information has been released about their identities or who abducted them.
The Islamic State reportedly has been paid millions of dollars in ransom for its hostages, particularly in the past six months, making hostage-taking an important form of financing.The Islamic State reportedly has been paid millions of dollars in ransom for its hostages, particularly in the past six months, making hostage-taking an important form of financing.
As one journalist working along the border between Turkey and Syria put it recently, “Journalists in Syria are seen as walking bags of money.” Unsurprisingly, most journalists and foreign aid workers are now avoiding Syria entirely — raising fears that the extremists would begin taking hostages elsewhere.As one journalist working along the border between Turkey and Syria put it recently, “Journalists in Syria are seen as walking bags of money.” Unsurprisingly, most journalists and foreign aid workers are now avoiding Syria entirely — raising fears that the extremists would begin taking hostages elsewhere.
“The F.B.I. has recently obtained credible information indicating members of an ISIL-affiliated group are tasked with kidnapping journalists in the region and returning them to Syria,” American law enforcement officials warned journalists in an October bulletin. “Members of this group might try to mask their affiliation with ISIL to gain access to journalists.”“The F.B.I. has recently obtained credible information indicating members of an ISIL-affiliated group are tasked with kidnapping journalists in the region and returning them to Syria,” American law enforcement officials warned journalists in an October bulletin. “Members of this group might try to mask their affiliation with ISIL to gain access to journalists.”
Many journalists working in the area are well aware of the risks. “ISIS has a network of agents roaming the areas that mostly attract journalists, near the border,” said Zaher Said, a Syrian who works for Western journalists in the Gaziantep area of southern Turkey.Many journalists working in the area are well aware of the risks. “ISIS has a network of agents roaming the areas that mostly attract journalists, near the border,” said Zaher Said, a Syrian who works for Western journalists in the Gaziantep area of southern Turkey.
“They disguise themselves as drivers or fixers offering to help journalists work in the south of Turkey, in order to establish good ties with them for a future plan of kidnapping them to the other side of the border,” said Mr. Said.“They disguise themselves as drivers or fixers offering to help journalists work in the south of Turkey, in order to establish good ties with them for a future plan of kidnapping them to the other side of the border,” said Mr. Said.
Most experienced journalists were aware of the risks in Turkey, and so far none had been kidnapped there. “It is not only ISIS and its network that poses a risk, but also self-motivated bounty hunters,” he said.Most experienced journalists were aware of the risks in Turkey, and so far none had been kidnapped there. “It is not only ISIS and its network that poses a risk, but also self-motivated bounty hunters,” he said.