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| Anti-Austerity Party Appears Poised to Win Greek Elections | Anti-Austerity Party Appears Poised to Win Greek Elections |
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| ATHENS — Greece appeared to reject the punishing economics of austerity on Sunday and send a warning signal to the rest of Europe as early returns showed the left-wing Syriza party with a strong lead in national elections, leaving the party’s tough-talking leader, Alexis Tsipras, likely to become the next prime minister. | |
| With 40 percent of the vote counted, Syriza was nearly eight points ahead of the governing center-right New Democracy Party of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, who had already conceded defeat. It remained unclear whether Syriza would be able to win an outright parliamentary majority in the multiparty race, or if it would have to form a coalition. | |
| Syriza’s likely victory would represent a dramatic milestone for Europe at a time when continuing economic weakness has stirred an angry, populist backlash from France to Spain to Italy, as more voters grow fed up with policies that demand sacrifice to address the discipline of financial markets without delivering more jobs and prosperity. Syriza would become the first anti-austerity party to take power in a eurozone country, and would shatter the two-party political establishment that has dominated Greece for four decades. | Syriza’s likely victory would represent a dramatic milestone for Europe at a time when continuing economic weakness has stirred an angry, populist backlash from France to Spain to Italy, as more voters grow fed up with policies that demand sacrifice to address the discipline of financial markets without delivering more jobs and prosperity. Syriza would become the first anti-austerity party to take power in a eurozone country, and would shatter the two-party political establishment that has dominated Greece for four decades. |
| “Democracy will return to Greece,” said Mr. Tsipras, 40, speaking to a swarm of reporters and photographers as he cast his ballot at an Athens voting station. “The message is that our common future in Europe is not the future of austerity.” | “Democracy will return to Greece,” said Mr. Tsipras, 40, speaking to a swarm of reporters and photographers as he cast his ballot at an Athens voting station. “The message is that our common future in Europe is not the future of austerity.” |
| Youthful, with a seemingly unflappable demeanor, Mr. Tsipras has worked diligently to soften his image as an anti-Europe radical, joking that his opponents had accused him of everything except stealing other men’s wives. On the campaign trail, he has promised to clean up Greece’s corrupt political system, reform the country’s public administration and reduce the tax burden on the middle class while cracking down on tax evasion by the country’s oligarchical business class. | Youthful, with a seemingly unflappable demeanor, Mr. Tsipras has worked diligently to soften his image as an anti-Europe radical, joking that his opponents had accused him of everything except stealing other men’s wives. On the campaign trail, he has promised to clean up Greece’s corrupt political system, reform the country’s public administration and reduce the tax burden on the middle class while cracking down on tax evasion by the country’s oligarchical business class. |
| But his biggest promise — and the one that has stirred deep anxiety in Brussels and Berlin as well as on financial markets — has been his pledge to force Greece’s creditors, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, to renegotiate the terms of the country’s 240 billion euro financial bailout. Squeezed by belt-tightening policies intended to stabilize the government’s finances, Greece has endured a historic collapse since the 2009 economic crisis, as economic output has shrunk by 25 percent and unemployment still hovers at roughly 26 percent. | But his biggest promise — and the one that has stirred deep anxiety in Brussels and Berlin as well as on financial markets — has been his pledge to force Greece’s creditors, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, to renegotiate the terms of the country’s 240 billion euro financial bailout. Squeezed by belt-tightening policies intended to stabilize the government’s finances, Greece has endured a historic collapse since the 2009 economic crisis, as economic output has shrunk by 25 percent and unemployment still hovers at roughly 26 percent. |
| In setting up a showdown in coming weeks with Germany and the country’s other creditors, Mr. Tsipras has argued that easing the bailout terms would allow more government spending, stimulating more economic growth and employment as well as helping the Greeks who need it the most. | In setting up a showdown in coming weeks with Germany and the country’s other creditors, Mr. Tsipras has argued that easing the bailout terms would allow more government spending, stimulating more economic growth and employment as well as helping the Greeks who need it the most. |
| “He is campaigning on change and the end of austerity,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, who argues that Mr. Tsipras must move toward a more centrist stance if he hopes to revive the economy and keep Greece solvent. | “He is campaigning on change and the end of austerity,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, who argues that Mr. Tsipras must move toward a more centrist stance if he hopes to revive the economy and keep Greece solvent. |
| “If he can pull that off, that will be the best possible outcome for Greece and for Europe, because it would show that these protest movements ultimately recognize reality, which is that they are in the euro, and they have to play by the rules,” he added. | “If he can pull that off, that will be the best possible outcome for Greece and for Europe, because it would show that these protest movements ultimately recognize reality, which is that they are in the euro, and they have to play by the rules,” he added. |
| Mr. Tsipras will face immediate challenges. Greece is still waiting for a 7 billion euro bailout payment that Athens needs to keep the government running and to pay off billions in debt obligations due in the coming months. He has also demanded that creditors write down at least half of Greece’s 319 billion euro public debt in order to give the country more breathing room for a spending stimulus that he says would give the economy a much-needed jolt. | Mr. Tsipras will face immediate challenges. Greece is still waiting for a 7 billion euro bailout payment that Athens needs to keep the government running and to pay off billions in debt obligations due in the coming months. He has also demanded that creditors write down at least half of Greece’s 319 billion euro public debt in order to give the country more breathing room for a spending stimulus that he says would give the economy a much-needed jolt. |
| “This is a turning of a page, a historical moment for all of Europe,” Yiannis Milios, the chief economist for Syriza, told reporters. “The Greek people are taking their future into their own hands.” | “This is a turning of a page, a historical moment for all of Europe,” Yiannis Milios, the chief economist for Syriza, told reporters. “The Greek people are taking their future into their own hands.” |
| Europe “cannot go on with deflation, recession, increasing unemployment and over indebtednesses,” he said. “Greece points the way. Our country, our people, are the groundbreakers of a very big change.” | Europe “cannot go on with deflation, recession, increasing unemployment and over indebtednesses,” he said. “Greece points the way. Our country, our people, are the groundbreakers of a very big change.” |
| A Syriza victory would lift the hopes of euroskeptic parties elsewhere in Europe, especially in Spain, where the left-leaning, anti-austerity Podemos party, not yet a year old, is already drawing 20 percent support in national opinion polls. The leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, joined Mr. Tsipras this week during Syriza’s final campaign rally. | A Syriza victory would lift the hopes of euroskeptic parties elsewhere in Europe, especially in Spain, where the left-leaning, anti-austerity Podemos party, not yet a year old, is already drawing 20 percent support in national opinion polls. The leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, joined Mr. Tsipras this week during Syriza’s final campaign rally. |
| “What the whole debate about Greece and Syriza highlights is that voter anxieties, voter resentment, and electoral disillusionment over austerity policies can be expressed at the ballot,” said Jens Bastian, an Athens-based economic consultant and a former member of the European Commission’s task force on Greece. “The example of Greece today may become a precursor to what happens in other countries like Spain, Portugal or Italy.” | “What the whole debate about Greece and Syriza highlights is that voter anxieties, voter resentment, and electoral disillusionment over austerity policies can be expressed at the ballot,” said Jens Bastian, an Athens-based economic consultant and a former member of the European Commission’s task force on Greece. “The example of Greece today may become a precursor to what happens in other countries like Spain, Portugal or Italy.” |
| Mr. Tsipras has said he wants to negotiate directly with Mrs. Merkel and other European leaders to reduce Greece’s debt burden, even as some officials have characterized Mr. Tsipras’s demands as unrealistic and rife with the potential to drive Greece toward the brink of default — or even out of the eurozone group that shares Europe’s common currency. | Mr. Tsipras has said he wants to negotiate directly with Mrs. Merkel and other European leaders to reduce Greece’s debt burden, even as some officials have characterized Mr. Tsipras’s demands as unrealistic and rife with the potential to drive Greece toward the brink of default — or even out of the eurozone group that shares Europe’s common currency. |
| Earlier concerns that a Syriza-led Greece would exit the common currency have been fading, but Mr. Tsipras’s confrontational stance on renegotiating the bailout could create a game of chicken with Greece’s creditors to see who blinks first. Mr. Tsipras has insisted he will not adhere to the bailout’s austerity conditions; Greece’s creditors insist they will not disburse funds unless he does. | Earlier concerns that a Syriza-led Greece would exit the common currency have been fading, but Mr. Tsipras’s confrontational stance on renegotiating the bailout could create a game of chicken with Greece’s creditors to see who blinks first. Mr. Tsipras has insisted he will not adhere to the bailout’s austerity conditions; Greece’s creditors insist they will not disburse funds unless he does. |
| Mr. Tsipras has pledged immediate action, including restoring electricity to poor families who have lost services for unpaid bills. He has promised to raise the minimum wage to 751 euros a month from 586 euros a month for all workers; restore collective bargaining agreements;prohibit mass layoffs; and create 300,000 jobs. | Mr. Tsipras has pledged immediate action, including restoring electricity to poor families who have lost services for unpaid bills. He has promised to raise the minimum wage to 751 euros a month from 586 euros a month for all workers; restore collective bargaining agreements;prohibit mass layoffs; and create 300,000 jobs. |
| Jens Weidmann, president of Bundesbank, the German central bank, warned that Greece would remain dependent on outside financial support and that the new Greek government “should not make promises that the country cannot afford.” | Jens Weidmann, president of Bundesbank, the German central bank, warned that Greece would remain dependent on outside financial support and that the new Greek government “should not make promises that the country cannot afford.” |
| “I hope the new government won’t call into question what is expected and what has already been achieved,” Mr. Weidmann said in an interview with Germany’s public broadcaster. | “I hope the new government won’t call into question what is expected and what has already been achieved,” Mr. Weidmann said in an interview with Germany’s public broadcaster. |
| On the streets of Athens, voters expressed a range of emotions as they went to the polls, from anger to betrayal to fear to even hope. | On the streets of Athens, voters expressed a range of emotions as they went to the polls, from anger to betrayal to fear to even hope. |
| At a polling station in Mets, a middle-class district near central Athens, Achilleas Mandrakis, 47, said he runs a garage but was struggling to stay afloat after his wife lost her job at a shoe store. “I always voted New Democracy, and I never trusted the leftists,” he said. “But enough is enough, really. We kept giving them a chance, but they messed up. They’ve made our lives miserable. | At a polling station in Mets, a middle-class district near central Athens, Achilleas Mandrakis, 47, said he runs a garage but was struggling to stay afloat after his wife lost her job at a shoe store. “I always voted New Democracy, and I never trusted the leftists,” he said. “But enough is enough, really. We kept giving them a chance, but they messed up. They’ve made our lives miserable. |
| “At least a different party might change something in this mess, anything.” | “At least a different party might change something in this mess, anything.” |
| The immediate question is whether Syriza will be able to achieve a parliamentary majority, which does not require an electoral majority. If not, Mr. Tsipras has already ruled out any alliance with New Democracy or Pasok, the country’s other establishment party. Some European officials have hoped that he might partner with a new centrist party, To Potami, which is strongly pro-Europe. But recently, Mr. Tsipras said he did not plan to engage with To Potami, either. | The immediate question is whether Syriza will be able to achieve a parliamentary majority, which does not require an electoral majority. If not, Mr. Tsipras has already ruled out any alliance with New Democracy or Pasok, the country’s other establishment party. Some European officials have hoped that he might partner with a new centrist party, To Potami, which is strongly pro-Europe. But recently, Mr. Tsipras said he did not plan to engage with To Potami, either. |
| Mr. Tsipras seems more likely to align with a smaller, fringe party, such as Independent Greeks, a center-right, anti-austerity group that might push for a harder line in any debt negotiations. Exit polls showed New Democracy headed for second place, with To Potami and the neo-fascist Golden Dawn party fighting for third place. | Mr. Tsipras seems more likely to align with a smaller, fringe party, such as Independent Greeks, a center-right, anti-austerity group that might push for a harder line in any debt negotiations. Exit polls showed New Democracy headed for second place, with To Potami and the neo-fascist Golden Dawn party fighting for third place. |
| While Greece sees itself as being punished by creditors’ demands, Germany and a host of European officials have argued that Greece and other troubled eurozone nations must clean up the high debts and deficits at the root of Europe’s debt crisis. They say Athens has still failed to make enough headway on the structural reforms necessary to put the economy on better footing, and they are pressing Greece to raise billions of euros through more budgetary cutbacks and taxes. | While Greece sees itself as being punished by creditors’ demands, Germany and a host of European officials have argued that Greece and other troubled eurozone nations must clean up the high debts and deficits at the root of Europe’s debt crisis. They say Athens has still failed to make enough headway on the structural reforms necessary to put the economy on better footing, and they are pressing Greece to raise billions of euros through more budgetary cutbacks and taxes. |
| For now, Mr. Tsipras’s plans to revive the economy and end austerity are appealing to many Greeks, yet some analysts remain deeply skeptical. If his economic plan and his demand for debt renegotiation are not achieved, “things could get a lot worse,” said Mr. Kirkegaard, the analyst. | For now, Mr. Tsipras’s plans to revive the economy and end austerity are appealing to many Greeks, yet some analysts remain deeply skeptical. If his economic plan and his demand for debt renegotiation are not achieved, “things could get a lot worse,” said Mr. Kirkegaard, the analyst. |
| “Very, very quickly,” he added. | “Very, very quickly,” he added. |