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No 10 warning ahead of Iraq vote No 10 warning as MPs debate Iraq
(40 minutes later)
Downing Street has warned of "very real consequences" for British troops in Iraq if MPs defeat the government over calls for an inquiry into the war.Downing Street has warned of "very real consequences" for British troops in Iraq if MPs defeat the government over calls for an inquiry into the war.
The Commons will debate a Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru call for a probe now into the war and aftermath, backed by Lib Dems and Labour rebels. The Commons has just begun debating a Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru call for a probe into the war and its aftermath, backed by the Lib Dems.
The Tories say they may also support it if ministers do not agree to hold a broader inquiry once troops leave.The Tories say they may also support it if ministers do not agree to hold a broader inquiry once troops leave.
No 10 says an inquiry now would be seen by the enemy as a sign of weakness.No 10 says an inquiry now would be seen by the enemy as a sign of weakness.
Ministers had said that the Hutton Inquiry, into the death of government adviser David Kelly, and the Butler Inquiry into the pre-war intelligence were enough. Ministers had said that the Hutton Inquiry, into the death of government adviser David Kelly, and the Butler Inquiry into the pre-war intelligence, were enough.
'Learn the lessons''Learn the lessons'
But Mr Blair's official spokesman hinted on Tuesday that the government might agree to an inquiry once troops have left Iraq.But Mr Blair's official spokesman hinted on Tuesday that the government might agree to an inquiry once troops have left Iraq.
He said: "Of course we continue to learn the lessons all the time and there is no doubt that at the end of our period there people will want to look back.He said: "Of course we continue to learn the lessons all the time and there is no doubt that at the end of our period there people will want to look back.
"The time to deal with that is then, not now. This is not a theoretical debate. It is a very real debate with very real consequences for our soldiers on the ground.""The time to deal with that is then, not now. This is not a theoretical debate. It is a very real debate with very real consequences for our soldiers on the ground."
What would demoralise soldiers in the field is the belief that the government have put us in a bloody quagmire, and have no idea whatsoever how to get out of it Alex SalmondSNPWhat would demoralise soldiers in the field is the belief that the government have put us in a bloody quagmire, and have no idea whatsoever how to get out of it Alex SalmondSNP
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett will speak in the debate, which starts at 1540 GMT, which is the first full Commons debate on Iraq since July 2004. Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett is to speak in the three hour debate - the first full Commons debate on Iraq since July 2004 - which should culminate in a vote shortly after 1910 GMT.
The SNP and Plaid are using their "Opposition Day" to table a motion calling for a committee of seven senior MPs to review "the way in which the responsibilities of government were discharged in relation to Iraq".The SNP and Plaid are using their "Opposition Day" to table a motion calling for a committee of seven senior MPs to review "the way in which the responsibilities of government were discharged in relation to Iraq".
Rebel MPsRebel MPs
The wording matches a motion from November 2005, which was signed by more than 160 MPs of all parties, including 32 Labour MPs.The wording matches a motion from November 2005, which was signed by more than 160 MPs of all parties, including 32 Labour MPs.
If that number of Labour MPs rebel, and all non-Labour MPs vote for the motion, the government could be defeated, although that is unlikely as few Labour MPs tend to rebel on other parties' motions.If that number of Labour MPs rebel, and all non-Labour MPs vote for the motion, the government could be defeated, although that is unlikely as few Labour MPs tend to rebel on other parties' motions.
However, if Mr Blair was defeated, an inquiry would go ahead, although it could be overturned at a later date, possibly through a confidence vote.However, if Mr Blair was defeated, an inquiry would go ahead, although it could be overturned at a later date, possibly through a confidence vote.
HAVE YOUR SAY Instead of being retrospective why not look into what can be done to help Iraq now? Qwerty, UK Send us your commentsHAVE YOUR SAY Instead of being retrospective why not look into what can be done to help Iraq now? Qwerty, UK Send us your comments
SNP leader Alex Salmond said the government's argument that an inquiry could have consequences for troops was "desperate stuff".SNP leader Alex Salmond said the government's argument that an inquiry could have consequences for troops was "desperate stuff".
"What would demoralise soldiers in the field is the belief that the government have put us in a bloody quagmire, and have no idea whatsoever how to get out of it.""What would demoralise soldiers in the field is the belief that the government have put us in a bloody quagmire, and have no idea whatsoever how to get out of it."
"Debates and inquiries should take place when things are happening, hopefully then there is a chance to do something to improve the situation.""Debates and inquiries should take place when things are happening, hopefully then there is a chance to do something to improve the situation."
'Entirely legitimate''Entirely legitimate'
The Conservatives favour an investigation, similar to the Franks inquiry carried out after the Falklands war, involving former generals and civil servants rather than just MPs.The Conservatives favour an investigation, similar to the Franks inquiry carried out after the Falklands war, involving former generals and civil servants rather than just MPs.
They say it should take place in about 12 months' time, by when ministers have said Iraqi security forces should be taking over responsibilities from British troops.They say it should take place in about 12 months' time, by when ministers have said Iraqi security forces should be taking over responsibilities from British troops.
But if the government does not publicly confirm that there will be such an inquiry, the Tories say they will vote with the SNP and Plaid.But if the government does not publicly confirm that there will be such an inquiry, the Tories say they will vote with the SNP and Plaid.
Shadow foreign secretary William Hague said it was important to look at the aftermath of the toppling of Saddam, from the successful elections to the failure to reconstruct Iraq's economy or win the "hearts and minds" of its people.Shadow foreign secretary William Hague said it was important to look at the aftermath of the toppling of Saddam, from the successful elections to the failure to reconstruct Iraq's economy or win the "hearts and minds" of its people.
He dismissed suggestions it would show weakness, saying: "It shows that we are a society that is able to learn and that's the great strength of our democracy."He dismissed suggestions it would show weakness, saying: "It shows that we are a society that is able to learn and that's the great strength of our democracy."
Liberal Democrat foreign spokesman Michael Moore, said it was "entirely legitimate" to ask questions of ministers, without undermining troops' morale.Liberal Democrat foreign spokesman Michael Moore, said it was "entirely legitimate" to ask questions of ministers, without undermining troops' morale.
"We want to know that the government actually have a proper plan for Iraq that's got milestones... that recognises we cannot be there indefinitely," he said."We want to know that the government actually have a proper plan for Iraq that's got milestones... that recognises we cannot be there indefinitely," he said.
Earlier this month Mr Blair defended the decision to invade Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein and said it would be a "betrayal", if troops pulled out of the country too soon.Earlier this month Mr Blair defended the decision to invade Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein and said it would be a "betrayal", if troops pulled out of the country too soon.
* You can watch the debate, which is expected to start at about 1540 GMT, live on the BBC News website. There will be a link to the coverage on this page.