Stock markets hit by global growth fears – business live
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Version 0 of 1. 5.28pm GMT17:28 European markets slump on global growth fears It was a sea of red as investors sent markets tumbling, spooked by renewed fears of a global slowdown. News that the World Bank had cut its growth forecasts set the tone, helping push copper down as much as 8% to five and a half year lows on concerns about slowing demand. Disappointing US retail sales added to the negative mood, while the euro dropped as a ruling from the European Court of Justice seemed to pave the way for the European Central Bank to consider quantitative easing at next week’s meeting. The final scores showed: On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 272 points or 1.49% lower. As for oil, Brent crude initially tried to move ahead, but higher than expected US inventory figures saw it back on the slide, down 1.42% to $45.93 a barrel. On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments (and apologies for the earlier problems) and we’ll be back again tomorrow. 4.01pm GMT16:01 More from Mark Carney. The Bank of England governor has told the Treasury Select committee that the low oil price has increased the chance of an emerging market sovereign defaulting. And on Europe, he said the Bank had not had specific discussions recently about a country leaving the eurozone (presumably the non-discussions were about Greece). Here’s Reuters’ take on Carney’s comments about the ECB: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday that he expected the European Central Bank will take measures to meet its inflation target of close to 2 percent. “The intention of the ECB, of President (Mario) Draghi and his colleagues to fulfil their mandate is clear,” Carney told lawmakers. “It is in our interest, without question, that (the euro zone has) stable and predictable inflation consistent with (the ECB’s) mandate, and we have every reason to expect them to take the measures to do so.” Euro zone inflation turned negative in December for the first time since 2009, fuelling expectations that the ECB will soon announce a plan to start purchasing government bonds. 3.42pm GMT15:42 US crude stocks rose by more than expected last week, as refineries cut output and petrol and distillate inventories increased DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Jan 9: 5389K (est 1750K; prev -3062K), Distillate Inventory 2925K (est 2100K; prev 11205K) DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization Jan 9: -2.90% (est -0.25%; prev -0.50%) Crude Oil Inventories rose by 5.4 million barrels last week vs 1.2m expected - unsurprisingly #WTI has reacted negatively to the news ^FR Brent crude, which has edged higher before the figures, is now down 0.9% at $46.16 a barrel. 3.12pm GMT15:12 More from Carney, courtesy of Reuters: 2.48pm GMT14:48 A day after his comments that deflation was possible in the UK, Bank of England governor Mark Carney is up before the Treasury Select Committee. He has told MPs that it is his personal view that the recent decline in the oil price is a net positive for the UK economy. Mark Carney tells MPs on Treasury committee that oil price fall is negative shock for Scottish economy but cushioned by the union with UK Updated at 3.14pm GMT 2.40pm GMT14:40 With mining shares hit by the plunge in commodities, particularly copper, as well as the weak US retail sales, Wall Street was predicted to open sharply lower and so it has proved. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 198 points or 1.1%, the S&P 500 has fallen around 1%, which is keeping European markets firmly in the red. The FTSE 100 is now down 2.3% or 151 points, Germany’s Dax has dropped 118 points or 1.1% and France’s Cac has lost 57 points or 1.3%. Oil, however, is virtually unchanged, with Brent crude steady at $46.6 a barrel. 2.28pm GMT14:28 Still with the US retail sales, Dr. Harm Bandholz at UniCredit Research said: At first, the sizeable decline in December retail sales came as a shock – even as we anticipated more weakness at the end of the year than the consensus. However, the large drop – in both the headline and the control group – has to be seen in connection with the very strong numbers that were reported for the previous couple of months. Before today’s report, real consumer spending was on track to rise a whopping 4% in the fourth quarter of 2014. While lower oil prices and a stronger labor market clearly helped, most of the expansion was actually enabled by a large drop in the savings rate. In contrast to the usual pattern, when lower energy spending is partly absorbed by a higher savings rate, US households this time lowered their rate by no less than 0.7 percentage points. What’s more, the decline began at about the same time as the drop in oil prices. Today’s report, including the revisions to the previous two months, will probably prompt a moderate upward revision to the savings rate path on the fourth quarter of 2014; but the overall story – lower oil prices accompanied by a lower savings rate – should remain intact. Private consumption is still on track to have risen solidly at the end of last year. And the fundamentals, notably the strong labor market coupled with higher wages (yes, they will come), low interest rates and low oil prices, remain very supporting for household spending. The decline in retail sales at the end of last year, however, indicates that we are seeing a temporary breather in consumer spending at the turn of the year, following a very strong expansion in the second half of 2014. 2.24pm GMT14:24 Some reaction to the worse than expected US retail sales. Rob Carnell at ING Bank said the figures were a little worrying: Surprisingly weak US retail sales figures may shed some doubt on the hypothesis that falling gasoline prices will provide a helpful boost (analogous to a tax cut) to consumer spending. It is important to bear in mind that these US retail sales figures are in current dollars, and as such, the -0.9% month on month decline in sales at gasoline stations can safely be ignored. But stripping out gas from retail sales, still leaves this measure down by 0.4% on the previous month, and most of the other so-called “core” measures, including the control group excluding food, gasoline, building materials and auto dealers was also down 0.2% month on month, with downward revisions to previous months. In fact, the sub-components are broadly negative, with one or two exceptions. This decline is not the result only of a freak fall in one part of the survey. But while these retail sales figures are a little worrying, and follow a substantial shift back in the market’s implied tightening by the Fed this year from late last year, we are reserving judgment on what this means. It is not unusual for US data to wobble like this. However, if we do not see a strong recovery in the January figures, it will be time to review whether the US economy is as strong as the third quarter of 2014 figures suggested, and whether extrapolating that strength into 2015 is such a good idea. More worryingly, with the US about the only beacon of growth globally, if even this engine is spluttering, then a more substantial market correction than we have already seen may well be on the cards. 1.38pm GMT13:38 Money is surging into safe-haven government debt, driving interest rates (or yields) down to new lows. BREAKING: 10-year yield breaks through October lows; hits 1.82% » http://t.co/UN7IVSiDhC US 10Y Treasuries reaction to US sales numbers - 1 min chart pic.twitter.com/qWox9aGiSv 1.37pm GMT13:37 Weak US retail sales shock markets Just in: US retail sales fell unexpectedly in December, sending a shiver through Wall Street. Retail sales fell 0.9% last month, and November’s figure was revised down to a gain of just 0.4%, from 0.7%. Snap conclusion: US consumer spending over Christmas was weaker than expected, another sign of gloomy growth. And that’s sent the FTSE down 180 points, or 2.8%. Those are really bad US retail sales numbers, added to November revision. People aren't spending their savings from gasoline? 1.30pm GMT13:30 FTSE 100 now down 150 points London’s stock market is being dragged deeper into the red as the commodities rout continues. The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has now shed 150 points, or 2.3%, at 6391 points. Mining stocks are leading the fallers; Glencore has tumbled 11.8%, Anglo American are down 9%, BHP Billiton has shed 7% and Rio Tinto is down 5.3%. The Footsie is stuffed with mining stocks, which are hurting since the World Bank cut its global growth forecasts (see last night’s story) IG’s Alastair McCaig explains: The FTSE has suffered more than most with the selloff of European equity markets, as its greater exposure to copper companies, miners and energy sector stocks continues to hang around its neck like a mill stone. Copper has managed the impossible by shifting oil off the top of the commodities watch list. This sudden collapse in the metal by more than 5% has been triggered by the World Bank’s downgrade of global growth for 2015. 12.45pm GMT12:45 Angela Merkel has declined to comment on today’s interim decision until she’s digested it fully, reports AFP’s Berlin correspondent, Deborah Cole: Merkel says she needs to read EU decision on bond-buying program "in all its complexity" before she will comment 12.36pm GMT12:36 Standard & Poor’s just became the second rating agency, after Moody’s, to strip Tesco of its investment-grade credit rating. TESCO CUT TO JUNK BY S&P 12.33pm GMT12:33 ECJ ruling: What the experts say Back to the European Court of Justice’s interim decision in favour of the ECB’s bond-buying programme. Stefan Rondorf, economic strategist, with Allianz Global Investors, says the ruling “clears any potential legal barriers” to a new QE programme, maybe next week “It leaves the ECB with a high degree of freedom around monetary policy and all eyes will be on the next meeting on 22 January.” Alexandria Carr, regulatory lawyer at Mayer Brown, says the ECJ has confirmed that Europe’s central bank has “broad discretion” over monetary policy. It interprets monetary policy widely to include the OMT programme but not so widely as to permit ECB involvement in direct aid programmes for Eurozone countries. “It is important to note that the challenge brought by Germany and the Opinion of the Advocate General only consider the ECB’s press release announcing the programme not actual measures taken by the ECB as the ECB has not yet needed to implement the programme. The Advocate General makes clear that if the ECB did begin to purchase the sovereign debt of Eurozone countries, it would need to comply with certain conditions including giving detailed reasons for its action and making sure that its action did not prevent the formation of a market price for the government bonds concerned.” Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel suggests Germany’s constitutional court is now in a tricky spot, having argued that OMT is illegal. It faces a stark choice then of dropping its objections almost entirely or asking for the Bundesbank not to participate in any OMT programme, he says: Such a legal and political dispute between the largest EU member and the ECJ could be a huge problem. It seems likely the ECB would challenge the prohibition of the Bundesbank taking part in OMT at the ECJ – thereby setting up a direct conflict between the ECJ and GCC. These discussions and rulings will be of crucial importance for German sovereignty and as a legal precedence in the EU. Similarly, if the GCC does overturn its concerns, it could de facto be seen as having given into the ECJ. Reminder: there’s some instant reaction earlier in the blog...and also here. Updated at 12.42pm GMT 12.11pm GMT12:11 Spanish PM backs Greek leader ahead of election Spain’s prime minister has offered his Greek counterpart some support today, on a visit to Athens. Mariano Rajoy told reporters that the economic reforms underway in Spain and Greece were bearing fruit. He called PM Antonis Samaras was a “real leader” (at least until the election on 25th January, eh?), and argued that Europe’s future was based around integration. Rajoy said: This whole process of integration has enabled Europe to live a period of prosperity and wellbeing, greater than ever in its history. With the reforms, we responded positively to the crisis and in the most difficult moments we were convinced that the answer is within Europe and not outside it. Greece and Spain were hit by a major crisis, the two countries made difficult and painful reforms, but it was necessary for the economies to be secured. The reforms bear fruit; the two countries have the highest growth rate. Greece has already a primary surplus and in Spain we also see that we will grow. If we continue on the same track, we will further develop our economies. Now we need stability and certainty rather than instability and we also need Europe.” As flagged up earlier, Samaras is still lagging in the polls, leading Moody’s to warn this morning that the risk of Greece leaving the euro has risen. Spain's PM Rajoy visits Samaras ahead of elections, insists reforms in both countries working #Greece #ekloges2015 pic.twitter.com/kV2BJNnr2M 11.58am GMT11:58 Political instability still stalks the eurozone today. In Italy, the 89-year old president has resigned, setting up a tricky challenge for prime minister Matteo Renzi. Georgio Napolitano’s resignation was expected; speculation over his successor has been swirling for months. It’s a pretty important role, Napolitano helped hold Italy together during the 2011 debt crisis, for example, and stayed on after his term expired in 2013 when a general election resulted in deadlock. Renzi hopes to choose a successor quickly. Ideally, someone who would dissolve parliament at his request, flags up Bloomberg. 11.26am GMT11:26 Apologies to readers trying to post comments; there are some technical difficulties this end. 11.17am GMT11:17 A senior policymaker at the European Cenral Bank has welcomed the ECJ’s interim ruling. But Luxembourg’s Yves Mersch also argued that it doesn’t have any direct implications for quantitative easing. Mersch is one of several executive board members who opposed Mario Draghi’s plan to expand the ECB’s balance sheet to its 2012 levels at last month’s meeting. I’ve taken the key points off Reuters: Updated at 12.13pm GMT 10.57am GMT10:57 The ECJ attorney general’s full opinion, which is online here, contains two points that may help the ECB launch a big QE package. Pedro Cruz Villalon warned that setting a limit on purchases of government bonds would “seriously undermine the effects which the intervention on the secondary market seeks to achieve, with the risk of triggering speculation”. In other words, the programme should be as big as necessary. Villalon also advised that the ECB can buy bonds from a country with a low credit rating without breaking the rules forbidding financing member states. 10.05am GMT10:05 Just in: Eurozone factories increased their output in November, despite fears that its economy is weakening. Production was up by 0.2% month-on-month, beating forecasts of a flat reading. That still leaves output 0.4% lower than a year ago. Euro area industrial production +0.2% in Nov 14 over Oct 14, -0.4% over Nov 13 #Eurostat http://t.co/QUdEJQw4Rk pic.twitter.com/Pu1UexpiV9 Updated at 10.07am GMT 10.01am GMT10:01 Euro falls below launch price The euro has fallen to a new nine-year low, below the level it launched at in 1999. Traders are concluding that the ECJ’s interim ruling clears the way for a quantitative easing programme to be launched soon, perhaps as soon as next Thursday. This sent the euro down almost half a cent at $1.1729, a level not seen since 2005. EUR moves to the same level from when it was first launched in 1999 as the imminent QE continues to gain traction http://t.co/wC9e6mO9IT Looks like #ECB is pleased to have got a green light from ECJ. #Euro trades below $1.1753; lowest since Dec2005. pic.twitter.com/f0H4DxyEyp The euro has also hit the lowest level against sterling since the collapse of Lehman Brothers: GBPEUR is at the highest since October 2008. Homing in on 1.30 handle, level not seen since March 2008 Updated at 10.01am GMT 9.53am GMT09:53 The ECJ’s top advisor has also taken a pop at the German courts which brought the case, saying that they lack the ‘expertise’ of the European Central Bank. Pedro Cruz Villalon says, in today’s ruling that:: the courts must exercise a considerable degree of caution when reviewing the ECB’s activity, since they lack the expertise and experience which the ECB has in this area. That may irk German policymakers.... Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services reckons this is the “key paragraph”, adding: There is however a further catch in terms of the ECJ highlighting that the ECB must not fund insolvent institutions/countries - implies Greece and Cyprus might have to be excluded from QE? On the other hand “insolvent” requires definition - or as one journalist opined to me “to misquote Clinton ‘it depends on what your definition of ‘insolvent’ is’?” (as per “I did not have sexual relations with that woman”) . 9.49am GMT09:49 ECJ ruling means QE is go. Even ruling against OMTs would prob not have stopped ECB. QE is monetary policy. OMT more a bail-out tool 9.45am GMT09:45 In the alphabet soup of monetary policy, it’s important not to confuse OMT with QE, as analyst Lorcan Roche Kelly points out: The Outright Monetary Transaction programme is meant to help a struggling eurozone member state, by reducing its borrowing costs. Under Quantitative Easing, a central bank expands its money supply by buying up assets with new money. I guess the other thing worth pointing out. ECB QE (as expected on Jan 22) is not OMT. Updated at 9.49am GMT 9.27am GMT09:27 The financial markets have taken this morning’s interim ruling in their stride, with the euro unchanged at $1.177 to the US dollar. That’s another sign that the ECJ has not thrown a roadblock in the way of a new quantitative easing programme: It seems to be chocks away for European QE after ECB bond purchases are conditionally cleared by the European Court of Justice. 9.19am GMT09:19 Summary: ECJ doesn't block eurozone bond-buying The European court of justice advocate general’s has given an interim ruling that broadly favours the European Central Bank in its attempt to save the eurozone. Pedro Cruz Villalon has advised the ECJ that the ECB’s government bond-buying programme was compatible with EU treaties, although he did also identify some conditions. The ECJ had been asked by Germany’s Bundesbank to rule on the Outright Monetary Transactions programme created in 2012; a pledge to buy unlimited quantities of bonds if a country was struggling to borrow in the financial markets (and had signed up to certain reforms). In today’s interim ruling (online here), Villalon said: The Advocate General considers that the OMT programme is suitable for bringing about a reduction in the interest rates on government bonds of the States concerned; such a reduction would make it possible to return to a certain degree of financial normality in those States, thus enabling the ECB to conduct its monetary policy in conditions of greater certainty and stability. He also considers that the OMT programme is necessary as well as proportionate in the strict sense, since the ECB does not assume a risk that will necessarily make it vulnerable to insolvency. Villalon did identify some conditions: 1) The ECB “must give a proper account” of its reasons when it activates the OMT programme, he said. He also 2) The ECB must avoid any “direct involvement in the financial assistance programme that applies to the State concerned”. In other words, OMT can be used to drive down borrowing costs by buying bonds, but it can’t fund a bailout. ECJ statement on OMT: http://t.co/za8k32YtVf #QE #ECB Updated at 9.31am GMT 9.08am GMT09:08 Today's European Court opinion on the ECB's powers is from the Advocate General not the court. The court's likely but not certain to follow. 8.59am GMT08:59 Eurozone crisis expert Yannis Koutsomitis also reckon today’s ruling is a win for the ECB’s president: #ECJ's Villalón opinion on OMT is huge. Justifies sovereign bonds buys by the ECB under certain conditions. German hawks lose, Draghi wins. 8.57am GMT08:57 At first glance, there’s nothing in this ruling to derail the ECB from launching a quantitative easing programme. Full summary shortly... 8.57am GMT08:57 The ruling does flag up the risk that a eurozone country could issue debt, safe in the knowledge that the ECB would mop it up: ECJ adviser fears 'purchase on secondary market made secs after issue on primary market could completely blur the distinction between two' Updated at 9.06am GMT 8.54am GMT08:54 ECJ ruling: instant reaction #ECB’S OMT plan may be legal, #ECJ court aides says; "some conditions may need to be met" ← Greenlight for the ECB Couched in lawyer speak - we shouldn't be surprised. It may be legal but it might need to be conditional. #euro Basically, the #ECJ advocate general says @ecb is free to go ahead with #OMT. Just has to explain it a bit better: pic.twitter.com/VpECkKsA3C 8.50am GMT08:50 This looks important: the European court of justice’s advocate general has said that the ECB must be given “broad discretion” to set monetary policy as it sees fit. Key paragraph in #ECJ advocate general's opinion on #OMT: @ecb must have "braod discretion" to set own policy. pic.twitter.com/Fa3X79aBbK Updated at 9.07am GMT 8.47am GMT08:47 More details from the ECJ. The advocate general has decided that the OMT bond-buying programme would be compatible with EU treaties, as long as the central bank does not distort the markets: ECJ: ECB MUST ALLOW FORMATION OF MARKET PRICES IN OMT - MNI ECJ: OMT MUST COMPLY WITH PRINCIPLE OF PROPORTIONALITY - MNI Updated at 9.07am GMT 8.43am GMT08:43 The ECJ also wants the ECB to “outline the reasons” behind an unconventional monetary policy such as OMT. 8.41am GMT08:41 ECJ: OMT programme legal if certain conditions are met Breaking: The ECJ is saying that the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions programme appears to be legal, as long as certain conditions are met. Those conditions identified by the court’s advocate general include insuring that the ECB does not provide “direct” financial assistance when it buys debt issued by a eurozone member: (The idea behind OMT, announced in 2012, is that the ECB would buy government bonds if a member’s borrowing costs rose to sharply). Read out of opinion on #ECB #OMT beginning in #ECJ, says "may" be legal - seems it will take account of some German concerns More to follow.... Updated at 9.07am GMT 8.36am GMT08:36 The ECJ is starting to read the ruling out now. Newswires are snapping the key points.... 8.32am GMT08:32 Right, we should be getting the European Court of Justice’s interim ruling on the ECB’s bond-buying plans shortly (if you’re just joining us, check out the opening post for details)... EYES DOWN 8.31am GMT08:31 The other European markets are also in the red: 8.21am GMT08:21 Shares tumble amid commodities rout Shares in London have dropped sharply in early trading, as fears over global growth hit commodity prices. The FTSE 100 has tumbled by 102 points, or 1.6%, in early trading to 6439. Mining groups are leading the fallers. Antofagasta, the copper producer, has tumbled over 10%. News that the World Bank had slashed growth forecasts overnight have hit sentiment in the markets. Yesterday’s tumble in UK inflation has also raised fears that the global economy is entering a protracted period of low price growth. This has driven the price of copper down to a new five-year low this morning; oil is also falling. Shanghai #copper fell over 5% to trigger a trading halt overnight, read more here http://t.co/B5qsiusSKh UBS analyst Daniel Morgan in Sydney explains (via Reuters). Europe has been pretty sluggish, China’s still got that property overhang, Japan’s entered recession. You’ve got the U.S. and UK going fine, so it’s a patchy global growth picture - but it’s one that has definitely deteriorated from six months ago,” said “We are definitely not in global financial crisis territory, where global trade is impaired and can’t be financed. We’re still seeing commodity transactions - just at lower prices.” 8.11am GMT08:11 Interesting... Mario Draghi has told Germany’s Die Zeit newspaper that the European Central Bank is ready to buy government bonds: Talking the talk. *DRAGHI SAYS ECB IS READY TO BUY GOVERNMENT BONDS: DIE ZEIT The ECB’s governing council meets in eight days time, and has already been given a selection of options for a new stimulus package, including a €500bn stimulus package. 8.01am GMT08:01 Moody's: Grexit risks have risen Rating agency Moody’s has warned that the risks of Greece crashing out of the eurozone have risen, but are still lower than in 2012. Moody’s said that the general election scheduled for January 25th could have “negative credit implications” for other eurozone members, if the left-wing Syriza party wins power. In a report issued this morning, the agency said: “The likelihood of a Greek exit is still lower than during the peak of the crisis in 2012 and remains relatively unlikely’ Adding: While Syriza is committed to the monetary union, it has also signalled that it could seek debt forgiveness from its euro area peers. Other euro area governments are likely to reject such a request, partly because it could lead to similar demands from other highly indebted euro area countries. Syriza holds a steady lead in the opinion polls, with 11 day to go. Yesterday, leader Alexis Tsipras warned that Greece was being held back by “fiscal waterboarding”. 7.55am GMT07:55 Today the European Court of Justice will their final opinion on the ECB’s OMT Program and the impact on a potential QE Program 7.45am GMT07:45 This morning’s ECJ ruling comes hours after the World Bank urged the ECB to launch a quantitative easing scheme. The World Bank slashed its forecast for eurozone growth in 2015 to just 1.1%, and called for a new money-printing programme to boost demand. Franziska Ohnsorge warned that weak consumption, anaemic investment and low inflation could drag the eurozone into a “deflationary spiral”. “The danger of deflation would be compounded by the difficulties already afflicting countries in the eurozone: a shrinking working-age population, slowing productivity growth (reflecting a lack of capital-embodied new technologies), and a loss of skills among the large number of long-term unemployed.” The world bank has updated its economic forecasts. Cuts Eurozone 2015 outlook from 1.8% to 1.1%. US forecast up from 3.0% to 3.3%. Full story: World Bank calls for quantitative easing to stop eurozone stagnation Updated at 7.45am GMT 7.31am GMT07:31 ECJ ruling: What the experts predict Hans Nichols of Bloomberg TV says that ECB chief Mario Draghi will be looking for “guideposts” in today’s interim ruling, and for “conditions that could be forced on a future QE programme”. Michael Hewson of CMC Markets reckons this morning’s ruling on the Outright Monetary Transaction programme could provide political cover for a quantitative easing programme soon. While investors continue to bet that we will get some form of action from the ECB next week, there still remains the small matter of this morning’s preliminary assessment by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) of the legality of the controversial and untested OMT program. The court will give a non-binding opinion at 08:30GMT on whether it agrees with the German Constitutional Court’s ruling that the ECB acted beyond its powers, though a final opinion won’t come for at least another six months or so. With German policymakers expressing significant doubts even now about the legality or necessity of any form of monetary easing, the ECJ must tread a fine line between issuing an opinion, and some guidelines as to what is legal and what isn’t while not overstepping into sovereign constitutional over-reach with respect to that opinion. Updated at 7.35am GMT 7.18am GMT07:18 The Agenda: ECJ to rule on ECB's bond-buying programme Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone, and business. Coming up shortly.... Europe’s top judges are ruling whether the European Central Bank has the legal right to buy unlimited amounts government bonds. The European Court of Justice will give an interim verdict on the ECB’s “Outright Monetary Transactions programme”; its pledge to help a member state in financial problems by buying as much of its debt as necessary. Although OMT has never been activated, its creation helped to calm the eurozone crisis in 2012. And if the ECJ comes down against the programme, it could hamper president Mario Draghi’s ability to create a new quantitative easing programme. The announcement comes at 08:30GMT. Happy ECJ Day folks! The ECJ was asked to rule on this issue by the constitutional court of Germany, where there is clear opposition to the idea of one eurozone country’s borrowing being financed by another. Analysts reckon the ECJ is unlikely to block government bond-buying altogether, but it could raise a warning flag over an ‘unlimited’ programme, which would then hamstring the ECB from launching a massive open-ended QE programme. In short, even though today’s decision is non-binding, it matters. As Nick Matthews of Nomura put it (via the Financial Times): “If the ECB committed to buy a monthly amount of government bonds until the outlook for inflation improves, it would be a much more powerful, more flexible and more credible form of QE than just naming an amount of purchases within a certain timeframe,” “It would give markets more certainty that the ECB is willing to do ‘whatever it takes’ to try and return inflation to its target.” Also coming up today.... European stock markets are expected to fall back, after a nervy session on Wall Street yesterday that saw the Dow Jones flail around. Datawise, a survey of EU industrial production data for December is released at 10am GMT. Bank of England governor Mark Carney is testifying to parliament’s Treasury Committee, from 2.15pm GMT, on the latest Financial Stability Report. Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, is visiting Athens. And in London, we get financial results from fashion chains Burberry and SuperGroup, and online grocery Ocado. I’ll be tracking all the main events through the day. |