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Europe Focuses on Emerging Threats From Smaller Crews of Terrorists Europe Focuses on Emerging Threats From Smaller Crews of Terrorists
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LONDON — The horrors of the Paris shootings, after similar assaults recently by gunmen in Canada and Australia, have underscored for European leaders the need to find ways to blunt an emerging new element of terrorism: the lone actor, or small group of actors, whose plans are hard to detect.LONDON — The horrors of the Paris shootings, after similar assaults recently by gunmen in Canada and Australia, have underscored for European leaders the need to find ways to blunt an emerging new element of terrorism: the lone actor, or small group of actors, whose plans are hard to detect.
There continue to be threats of carefully orchestrated raids by large terrorist groups, started and planned from abroad, like the attacks in the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, and the bombings in Britain on July 7, 2005. In part because of the success of international intelligence agencies in detecting such complicated plots, however, there has been a sharp increase throughout Europe in what Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain this week called “a sort of roving firearms terrorist attack.”There continue to be threats of carefully orchestrated raids by large terrorist groups, started and planned from abroad, like the attacks in the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, and the bombings in Britain on July 7, 2005. In part because of the success of international intelligence agencies in detecting such complicated plots, however, there has been a sharp increase throughout Europe in what Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain this week called “a sort of roving firearms terrorist attack.”
These acts do less damage and kill fewer people than large-scale attacks, but they inspire significant fear and create high-profile propaganda that helps recruitment and fund-raising for affiliated extremist groups. Media-conscious militants now often wear GoPro cameras to create high-quality videos that can be shown online.These acts do less damage and kill fewer people than large-scale attacks, but they inspire significant fear and create high-profile propaganda that helps recruitment and fund-raising for affiliated extremist groups. Media-conscious militants now often wear GoPro cameras to create high-quality videos that can be shown online.
“The threats we have dealt with recently include traditional Al Qaeda plans for large-scale attacks, with concerns about explosives hidden in tablets and computers,” a former British intelligence official said. “But over the last two years, we have also seen an increase in the actions of individuals and small groups, and we have to worry about that, too.”“The threats we have dealt with recently include traditional Al Qaeda plans for large-scale attacks, with concerns about explosives hidden in tablets and computers,” a former British intelligence official said. “But over the last two years, we have also seen an increase in the actions of individuals and small groups, and we have to worry about that, too.”
Complicating the problem for intelligence services, the former official said, is that “more citizens have had direct contact with jihad in Syria and Iraq, not just in Yemen.” As many as 5,000 Europeans, the head of Europol said on Tuesday, have traveled to Syria to join the fighting there.Complicating the problem for intelligence services, the former official said, is that “more citizens have had direct contact with jihad in Syria and Iraq, not just in Yemen.” As many as 5,000 Europeans, the head of Europol said on Tuesday, have traveled to Syria to join the fighting there.
The growing number of potential troublemakers is compounded, the former intelligence official said, by a diminished ability to track them. “We have less intelligence capacity in the wake of Edward Snowden’s leaks,” he said, referring to the former contractor for the National Security Agency who exposed many of its eavesdropping activities. “The tactics that are being used by terrorists make it harder, too.”The growing number of potential troublemakers is compounded, the former intelligence official said, by a diminished ability to track them. “We have less intelligence capacity in the wake of Edward Snowden’s leaks,” he said, referring to the former contractor for the National Security Agency who exposed many of its eavesdropping activities. “The tactics that are being used by terrorists make it harder, too.”
After a series of attacks by individuals or small groups across Europe, governments are pressing for more powers to gather intelligence from modern means of communication like Internet sites, including social media. Germany wants to revoke the ID cards of those suspected of traveling to join jihadist groups. In France, there is now a debate about increased surveillance powers, through something of a French Patriot Act.After a series of attacks by individuals or small groups across Europe, governments are pressing for more powers to gather intelligence from modern means of communication like Internet sites, including social media. Germany wants to revoke the ID cards of those suspected of traveling to join jihadist groups. In France, there is now a debate about increased surveillance powers, through something of a French Patriot Act.
Even as the episodes in Paris were playing out last Thursday, Andrew Parker, director of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency, MI5, called for more authority to monitor communications. Threats are increasing, he said, as terrorist arrests rise sharply, and “three U.K. terrorist plots” that could have led to deaths were disrupted in recent months.Even as the episodes in Paris were playing out last Thursday, Andrew Parker, director of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency, MI5, called for more authority to monitor communications. Threats are increasing, he said, as terrorist arrests rise sharply, and “three U.K. terrorist plots” that could have led to deaths were disrupted in recent months.
“My sharpest concern,” Mr. Parker said, “is the growing gap between the increasingly challenging threat and the growing availability of capabilities to address it.”“My sharpest concern,” Mr. Parker said, “is the growing gap between the increasingly challenging threat and the growing availability of capabilities to address it.”
His speech added to the long-running debate here about how to balance the right of privacy with the obligation to provide security for citizens. Mr. Parker warned, as Mr. Cameron did on Monday in Nottingham, that intelligence agencies should have the legal means to intercept the encrypted communications of suspected terrorists.His speech added to the long-running debate here about how to balance the right of privacy with the obligation to provide security for citizens. Mr. Parker warned, as Mr. Cameron did on Monday in Nottingham, that intelligence agencies should have the legal means to intercept the encrypted communications of suspected terrorists.
Mr. Cameron promised to ensure there would be no areas online where terrorists, criminals and pedophiles could hide. But the deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats, immediately criticized the proposal on privacy grounds.Mr. Cameron promised to ensure there would be no areas online where terrorists, criminals and pedophiles could hide. But the deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats, immediately criticized the proposal on privacy grounds.
“The hardest problem” for the intelligence services, said the former British intelligence official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic, is “what we call ‘target acquisition,’ figuring out who these people are, rather than investigating known targets.” That effort, he said, requires cooperation from technology companies, which have been pressured to protect privacy since the N.S.A. leaks. “That just isn’t there anymore as a consequence of Snowden,” the former official said.“The hardest problem” for the intelligence services, said the former British intelligence official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic, is “what we call ‘target acquisition,’ figuring out who these people are, rather than investigating known targets.” That effort, he said, requires cooperation from technology companies, which have been pressured to protect privacy since the N.S.A. leaks. “That just isn’t there anymore as a consequence of Snowden,” the former official said.
Robert Hannigan, the director of G.C.H.Q., Britain’s electronic intelligence agency, recently accused the technology companies of providing “command-and-control networks of choice for terrorists and criminals.”Robert Hannigan, the director of G.C.H.Q., Britain’s electronic intelligence agency, recently accused the technology companies of providing “command-and-control networks of choice for terrorists and criminals.”
Lone actors or small groups communicate less, or more often in person, and many have become more careful in using telephones and the Internet. Family ties help them, too. Saïd and Chérif Kouachi, the brothers killed in a police raid after being identified as suspects in the Paris attacks, would have been able to converse without raising much concern, experts said, because calls between brothers are not unusual.Lone actors or small groups communicate less, or more often in person, and many have become more careful in using telephones and the Internet. Family ties help them, too. Saïd and Chérif Kouachi, the brothers killed in a police raid after being identified as suspects in the Paris attacks, would have been able to converse without raising much concern, experts said, because calls between brothers are not unusual.
Sometimes, family members radicalize one another. The brother and sister of Mohammed Merah, who killed seven people in Toulouse in 2012 while targeting soldiers and Jews, were more radical than he was.Sometimes, family members radicalize one another. The brother and sister of Mohammed Merah, who killed seven people in Toulouse in 2012 while targeting soldiers and Jews, were more radical than he was.
Similar circumstances surrounded the Frenchman Mehdi Nemmouche, who killed four people at the Jewish Museum of Belgium in June after his return from Syria, said Camille Grand, director of the French Foundation for Strategic Research.Similar circumstances surrounded the Frenchman Mehdi Nemmouche, who killed four people at the Jewish Museum of Belgium in June after his return from Syria, said Camille Grand, director of the French Foundation for Strategic Research.
“Small groups with limited logistics are a major problem,” Mr. Grand said. Even if they are on a watch list, “when they decide to act, unless you have an informant or what security people call ‘exquisite intelligence,’ with a phone call that says tomorrow is the day, you can’t monitor and follow everyone full time.”“Small groups with limited logistics are a major problem,” Mr. Grand said. Even if they are on a watch list, “when they decide to act, unless you have an informant or what security people call ‘exquisite intelligence,’ with a phone call that says tomorrow is the day, you can’t monitor and follow everyone full time.”
Shashank Joshi, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said that a lone wolf, or a small group known as a wolf pack, operating without formal control from abroad, created enormous problems.Shashank Joshi, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said that a lone wolf, or a small group known as a wolf pack, operating without formal control from abroad, created enormous problems.
The acquisition of a weapon — even a Kalashnikov rifle, which costs less than $2,500 on the black market, much less knives and a meat cleaver like the ones used in the attack on a British soldier, Lee Rigby, in 2013 — is unlikely to set off the kind of alarms that ordering tons of chemicals might. And there are a variety of new communications channels, like WhatsApp and Snapchat, some of which encrypt their data.The acquisition of a weapon — even a Kalashnikov rifle, which costs less than $2,500 on the black market, much less knives and a meat cleaver like the ones used in the attack on a British soldier, Lee Rigby, in 2013 — is unlikely to set off the kind of alarms that ordering tons of chemicals might. And there are a variety of new communications channels, like WhatsApp and Snapchat, some of which encrypt their data.
But more power to monitor would mean more data to sift, Mr. Joshi said, and would require more money and staffing. “We shouldn’t confuse powers with resources,” he said.But more power to monitor would mean more data to sift, Mr. Joshi said, and would require more money and staffing. “We shouldn’t confuse powers with resources,” he said.
Raffaello Pantucci, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, has studied lone actors, and he said they were often known to the police “but haven’t yet crossed the threshold of concern, so they’re in the background, a lower priority.”Raffaello Pantucci, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, has studied lone actors, and he said they were often known to the police “but haven’t yet crossed the threshold of concern, so they’re in the background, a lower priority.”
The suspects in Paris were not lone wolves — like Mr. Rigby’s killers or Anders Behring Breivik, who killed 77 people in Oslo in 2011 — but were long-term radicals who had been largely inactive, Mr. Pantucci said.The suspects in Paris were not lone wolves — like Mr. Rigby’s killers or Anders Behring Breivik, who killed 77 people in Oslo in 2011 — but were long-term radicals who had been largely inactive, Mr. Pantucci said.
“If they’re never the leader, never the principal, at some point you don’t focus on them,” he said. “They don’t set off intelligence tripwires.”“If they’re never the leader, never the principal, at some point you don’t focus on them,” he said. “They don’t set off intelligence tripwires.”
In a study of 119 lone-actor terrorists in the March 2014 Journal of Forensic Sciences, Paul Gill, a lecturer at University College London, and his co-authors found that there was “no uniform profile” of lone actors, although they often spoke beforehand about their grievances, beliefs and even their intention to commit violence. The study also found that their acts “were rarely sudden and impulsive” and that they “regularly engaged in a detectable and observable range of activities with a wider pressure group, social movement or terrorist organization.”In a study of 119 lone-actor terrorists in the March 2014 Journal of Forensic Sciences, Paul Gill, a lecturer at University College London, and his co-authors found that there was “no uniform profile” of lone actors, although they often spoke beforehand about their grievances, beliefs and even their intention to commit violence. The study also found that their acts “were rarely sudden and impulsive” and that they “regularly engaged in a detectable and observable range of activities with a wider pressure group, social movement or terrorist organization.”
That finding would suggest that traditional police work within target communities is vital to detecting a potential attack. At this point, Mr. Gill said in a telephone interview, there are eight to 10 such attacks a year, and he expects the number to increase.That finding would suggest that traditional police work within target communities is vital to detecting a potential attack. At this point, Mr. Gill said in a telephone interview, there are eight to 10 such attacks a year, and he expects the number to increase.
Lone actors are difficult but not impossible to detect, Mr. Gill said. “There are weaknesses in these lone actors that create opportunities for counterterrorism,” he said. A study that he did for the United States Department of Homeland Security found, to his surprise, that “in 60 percent of the cases, the individuals had leaked very specific information about the plots they were about to go on,” telling families and friends what they were going to do, Mr. Gill said.Lone actors are difficult but not impossible to detect, Mr. Gill said. “There are weaknesses in these lone actors that create opportunities for counterterrorism,” he said. A study that he did for the United States Department of Homeland Security found, to his surprise, that “in 60 percent of the cases, the individuals had leaked very specific information about the plots they were about to go on,” telling families and friends what they were going to do, Mr. Gill said.
Many of them, he said, try to be dramatic so the attack will be remembered, because the propaganda value is as important as the amount of damage. He mentioned the Rigby killing, which claimed a single victim but was done in a very public space. Some of the scene and comments by one of the perpetrators were recorded and then broadcast.Many of them, he said, try to be dramatic so the attack will be remembered, because the propaganda value is as important as the amount of damage. He mentioned the Rigby killing, which claimed a single victim but was done in a very public space. Some of the scene and comments by one of the perpetrators were recorded and then broadcast.
“He learned his script and spoke into the phone camera, with his bloody hands, and that imagery will always be remembered,” Mr. Gill said. “So they provide a script for other lone actors to follow.”“He learned his script and spoke into the phone camera, with his bloody hands, and that imagery will always be remembered,” Mr. Gill said. “So they provide a script for other lone actors to follow.”