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Experts Assessing Parisian Assault See Footprints of Al Qaeda in Video Clips Experts Assessing Parisian Assault Unsure of Assailants’ Terror Links
(about 2 hours later)
At first, the gunmen who stormed the office of a Parisian newspaper on Wednesday appeared to be the latest in the string of attackers inspired by the Islamic State militant group, whose leaders have called for sympathizers to carry out assaults on their own wherever and whenever they can. Wednesday’s attack on a satirical newspaper in Paris prompted speculation about the involvement of an organized terrorist group, possibly the Islamic State, whose leaders have called for sympathizers to carry out assaults wherever they can. These “lone wolf” attacks have included the siege of a cafe in Sydney, Australia, last month; an attack on the Jewish Museum in Brussels in May; and a gunman’s rampage through the Parliament building in Ottawa in October.
These lone-wolf-style attacks have included the siege of a chocolate shop last month in Sydney, Australia, the attack on the Jewish museum in Brussels and a gunman’s rampage through the Parliament building in Ottawa. Even as French and other Western intelligence and counterterrorism officials said they had not yet determined which extremist groups, if any, might have been involved in the attack in Paris, some veteran analysts and terror experts suggested that Al Qaeda or one of its affiliates might be implicated.
But analysts and antiterrorism experts quickly turned their attention to the organization that birthed the Islamic State: Al Qaeda. They point out that the operation against Charlie Hebdo, a satirical French newspaper known for its cartoons lampooning the Prophet Muhammad, was led by at least three assailants, in contrast to the wave of lone-gunman attacks attributed to extremists inspired by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL.
Although it was impossible to conclude who was responsible at this stage, the experts argued that, unlike the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, Al Qaeda has the know-how and logistical capability to carry out a coordinated attack of this nature. Furthermore, they said, it showed a degree of sophistication and forethought that was lacking from those carried out by Islamic State sympathizers — like the Sydney siege, led by a convert to Islam who brought the wrong jihadist flag to the scene of the attack and later asked the police to bring him the correct one.
Their assessments were supported partly by video clips of the killers, which showed them equipped with military-style gear, including assault rifles and combat vests designed to hold extra ammunition. The assailants also appeared to know exactly how to use their weapons. One witness to the attack in Paris on Wednesday, Cédric Le Béchec, 33, a real estate agent, told a French publication that the gunmen had yelled, “Tell the media that we are Al Qaeda in Yemen.”
Moreover, the attack against the newspaper, Charlie Hebdo, known for lampooning the Prophet Muhammad, was led by at least three assailants, in contrast to the wave of lone gunman attacks attributed to ISIS-inspired extremists. Peter Neumann, a terrorism expert at King’s College London, said that the assault in Paris looked more organized than previous lone-wolf attacks and that it was possible that a branch of Al Qaeda was behind it.
The attack showed a degree of sophistication and thought that was lacking from those carried out by ISIS sympathizers — like the Sydney siege led by a convert whose lack of planning was obvious. He brought the wrong jihadist flag to the scene of the attack and later asked the police to bring him the correct banner. Jean-Paul Rouiller, director of the Geneva Center for Training and Analysis of Terrorism, said that in the previous attacks, targets were chosen only because they were Western, and were missing the symbolism that often came with Qaeda-led assaults.
At least one witness at the scene on Wednesday, a 33-year-old real estate agent identified as Cedric Le Bechec, told a French publication that the gunmen had yelled, “Tell the media that we are Al Qaeda in Yemen.” That the killers spoke in French while carrying out their assault revived a question that has grown increasingly urgent in France: whether French citizens inspired by jihadist groups are returning from Syria and Iraq trained to carry out attacks or are responding to calls from jihadist groups to hit specific targets.
“In my view, the right track is Al Qaeda and not the Islamic State; there are a lot of things pointing to that,” said Jean-Paul Rouiller, the director of the Geneva Center for Training and Analysis of Terrorism. In Washington, American intelligence and counterterrorism officials said they were combing through electronic communications and other information for clues about the attackers.
“What you have seen in the last couple of months concerning the Islamic State is a group that was asking sympathizers to act in the way they could act — to strike the enemy wherever you can with whatever means you do have,” he said. The targets appear to have been chosen only on the basis of being Western, and are missing the symbolism that often comes with Qaeda-led assaults. “The reality is, we simply don’t know yet,” said Representative Adam Schiff, a California Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, which received a briefing on the shootings Wednesday afternoon from the National Counterterrorism Center.
Among the signs pointing to Al Qaeda is the recent issue of Inspire — the propaganda magazine published by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula — which named the editor of Charlie Hebdo, Stéphane Charbonnier, on its suggested hit list of Westerners who have insulted the Muslim faith. Among the signs pointing to Al Qaeda is the fact that a recent issue of Inspire — the propaganda magazine published by the Yemen affiliate of the group, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula — named Charlie Hebdo’s editor, Stéphane Charbonnier, to its suggested hit list of Westerners who have insulted the Muslim faith. His name appears in a two-page spread under the heading, “A Bullet a Day Keeps the Infidel Away — Defend the Prophet Mohammed.”
His name appears in a two-page article under the heading, “A Bullet a Day Keeps the Infidel Away — Defend the Prophet Muhammad.” There were signs that the assailants had received military-style training. Two of the gunmen are seen in video footage moving across a narrow Parisian street shadowing each other, and also gripping their weapons correctly, Mr. Rouiller said, yet they appear to be relaxed — and they are almost casual in the moment when one is seen opening fire on a wounded police officer on the sidewalk.
Another sign of Al Qaeda’s imprint is the military training and coordination reflected in the movements and behavior of the attackers. Online, a spat was underway between Islamic State and Qaeda supporters, with each trying to claim credit for the attack. ISIS sympathizers pointed to a seven-minute video released in November and produced by the Islamic State’s official Al Hayat Media Center. It shows three French fighters burning their passports and imploring their countrymen to rise up. “There are weapons and cars available and targets ready to be hit,” says one of the French-speaking narrators.
“Here you are speaking about people who are obviously trained — and that have received a pretty impressive training, not just basic training,” Mr. Rouiller said. “I don’t respect this head-to-head A.Q. and I.S. fan business over the French attack,” a self-described ISIS fighter going by the name Qaqa al-Baritani saidon Twitter, according to a transcript provided by SITE Intelligence, which tracks jihadist statements. “Even if A.Q. did it, we will praise it.”
Among the indications were the movements of two of the gunmen, seen across a narrow Parisian street in footage from the attack. They are shown shadowing each other and walking a few meters apart.
They are also, Mr. Rouiller said, correctly gripping their weapons, yet appearing to be relaxed — and almost casual in the moment when one is seen shooting a wounded victim on the sidewalk.
Online, a dispute appeared to be underway between ISIS and Qaeda supporters, with each trying to assert responsibility for the attack.
ISIS sympathizers pointed to a seven-minute video released in November and produced by the Islamic State’s official Al Hayat Media Center. It shows three French fighters burning their passports and imploring their countrymen to rise up. “There are weapons and cars available and targets ready to be hit,” says one of the French-speaking narrators.
On Twitter, followers of the rival groups — which used to be one organization until Al Qaeda disavowed any relation with ISIS — traded barbs. At the same time, some ISIS followers said the attack should be praised even if Al Qaeda carried it out.
“I don’t respect this head-to-head A.Q. and I.S. fan business over the French attack” said a self-described ISIS fighter going by the name Qaqa al-Baritani, according to a transcript provided by SITE Intelligence, which tracks jihadist statements. “Even if A.Q. did it, we will praise it.”