This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/29/scottish-government-oil-revenue-forecast

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Scottish government’s oil revenue forecast ‘out by £15.5bn’ Scottish government’s oil revenue forecast ‘out by £15.5bn’
(about 4 hours later)
The Scottish government’s oil revenue forecast for the first three years had Scots voted in favour of independence is now out by £15.5bn, according to the Scottish secretary. The Scottish government’s oil revenue forecast for the first three years had Scots voted in favour of independence is now out by £15.5bn, according to the Scotland secretary.
Alistair Carmichael said the latest analysis by the UK government showed that, 100 days after the referendum, an independent Scotland would have been facing the shortfall following a drop in oil prices. He said serious questions now needed to be asked about how the SNP administration “got this so badly wrong”. Alistair Carmichael said the latest analysis by the UK government showed that, 100 days after the referendum, an independent Scotland would have been facing the shortfall following a drop in oil prices. He said serious questions needed to be asked about how the SNP administration “got this so badly wrong”.
UK government figures claim that the current falling price of oil would provide £4.7bn for an independent Scotland between 2016-17 and 2018-19.UK government figures claim that the current falling price of oil would provide £4.7bn for an independent Scotland between 2016-17 and 2018-19.
This is in contrast to Scottish government predictions of £20.2bn being generated over the same period.This is in contrast to Scottish government predictions of £20.2bn being generated over the same period.
Carmichael said: “On referendum day, Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney were predicting ‘a second oil boom’. Scottish government economists were telling us the oil price would be $110 per barrel.Carmichael said: “On referendum day, Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney were predicting ‘a second oil boom’. Scottish government economists were telling us the oil price would be $110 per barrel.
“Now, just 100 days later, with the oil price actually standing at $60, there is a £15.5bn hole in the finances of independence. That is a £155m mistake for every day that has passed since the referendum.“Now, just 100 days later, with the oil price actually standing at $60, there is a £15.5bn hole in the finances of independence. That is a £155m mistake for every day that has passed since the referendum.
“We were making a decision that Scots were going to have to live with forever and the Scottish government are sticking to wildly optimistic oil predictions that have not even made it to the new year.”“We were making a decision that Scots were going to have to live with forever and the Scottish government are sticking to wildly optimistic oil predictions that have not even made it to the new year.”
Carmichael said steps should be taken to restore confidence in future oil analysis.Carmichael said steps should be taken to restore confidence in future oil analysis.
A spokesman for Swinney, Scotland’s deputy first minister, said: “This is staggering hypocrisy from Alistair Carmichael, whose own UK government’s energy department was last year forecasting oil prices to reach $134 a barrel in 2018 – substantially more than the Scottish government’s March 2013 price projection.A spokesman for Swinney, Scotland’s deputy first minister, said: “This is staggering hypocrisy from Alistair Carmichael, whose own UK government’s energy department was last year forecasting oil prices to reach $134 a barrel in 2018 – substantially more than the Scottish government’s March 2013 price projection.
“Instead of, bizarrely, gloating over his own government’s lower-than-expected revenues, Mr Carmichael should be doing all he can to help the industry, which has too often been subject to wildly fluctuating taxation from successive Westminster governments.“Instead of, bizarrely, gloating over his own government’s lower-than-expected revenues, Mr Carmichael should be doing all he can to help the industry, which has too often been subject to wildly fluctuating taxation from successive Westminster governments.
“Oil is a bonus, not the basis of Scotland’s economy, and will be a fantastic asset for Scotland for decades to come, with as much in value still to come as has already been extracted.”“Oil is a bonus, not the basis of Scotland’s economy, and will be a fantastic asset for Scotland for decades to come, with as much in value still to come as has already been extracted.”