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| Loss by Taiwan Governing Party Raises Fears That Ties With China Will Sour | |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| TAIPEI, Taiwan — The recent electoral defeat of Taiwan’s pro-China governing party has raised expectations that the pro-independence opposition could win the next national election, increasing concerns about a return to the bitterness that previously defined the cross-strait relationship. | TAIPEI, Taiwan — The recent electoral defeat of Taiwan’s pro-China governing party has raised expectations that the pro-independence opposition could win the next national election, increasing concerns about a return to the bitterness that previously defined the cross-strait relationship. |
| When the opposition Democratic Progressive Party last held power, it presided over a period of tensions with the mainland, angering Beijing by holding referendums that touched on Taiwan’s relationship with China. | When the opposition Democratic Progressive Party last held power, it presided over a period of tensions with the mainland, angering Beijing by holding referendums that touched on Taiwan’s relationship with China. |
| Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, saw those votes as possible preludes to a referendum on independence. China passed a law in 2005 approving the use of force if Taiwan formally declared independence, and American officials worried publicly about the risk of being pulled into an armed conflict with China over the island. | Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, saw those votes as possible preludes to a referendum on independence. China passed a law in 2005 approving the use of force if Taiwan formally declared independence, and American officials worried publicly about the risk of being pulled into an armed conflict with China over the island. |
| Now, some observers fear that a loss by the governing Kuomintang in elections to be held in little over a year could herald a return to the troubles of that era. | Now, some observers fear that a loss by the governing Kuomintang in elections to be held in little over a year could herald a return to the troubles of that era. |
| “Looking ahead to next year’s campaign, the trend is really bad for the Kuomintang, and if it’s bad for the Kuomintang, then it’s bad for the development of cross-strait relations,” said Yang Lixian, a researcher with the Beijing-based National Society of Taiwan Studies. “If the Democratic Progressive Party wins but doesn’t change its Taiwan independence platform, then this is definitely a bad signal for cross-strait relations.” | “Looking ahead to next year’s campaign, the trend is really bad for the Kuomintang, and if it’s bad for the Kuomintang, then it’s bad for the development of cross-strait relations,” said Yang Lixian, a researcher with the Beijing-based National Society of Taiwan Studies. “If the Democratic Progressive Party wins but doesn’t change its Taiwan independence platform, then this is definitely a bad signal for cross-strait relations.” |
| Relations with China have warmed under Taiwan’s current government, led by the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang. In the past eight years, the two sides signed 21 agreements promoting greater cross-strait trade and travel, and China seemed content to let its economic embrace do what years of saber-rattling could not in bringing Taiwan closer to its side. | Relations with China have warmed under Taiwan’s current government, led by the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang. In the past eight years, the two sides signed 21 agreements promoting greater cross-strait trade and travel, and China seemed content to let its economic embrace do what years of saber-rattling could not in bringing Taiwan closer to its side. |
| But recently there has been a backlash, as many Taiwanese have raised concerns that growing trade ties with China have undermined the island’s autonomy, and question their benefits. | But recently there has been a backlash, as many Taiwanese have raised concerns that growing trade ties with China have undermined the island’s autonomy, and question their benefits. |
| Last spring, students occupied Taiwan’s legislature for more than three weeks to protest efforts by the Kuomintang to push through a pact with China on trade in services such as advertising, finance and travel. That occupation, known as the Sunflower Movement, was accompanied by large public protests in the capital, Taipei. | Last spring, students occupied Taiwan’s legislature for more than three weeks to protest efforts by the Kuomintang to push through a pact with China on trade in services such as advertising, finance and travel. That occupation, known as the Sunflower Movement, was accompanied by large public protests in the capital, Taipei. |
| Then last month, voters handed the Kuomintang a heavy defeat in elections for more than 11,000 local positions, amid concerns about food safety, slow economic growth, wage stagnation, housing prices and the growing gap between rich and poor. | Then last month, voters handed the Kuomintang a heavy defeat in elections for more than 11,000 local positions, amid concerns about food safety, slow economic growth, wage stagnation, housing prices and the growing gap between rich and poor. |
| Those races focused on local issues, and none of the offices has a say over cross-strait policy. But in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections, the divide between those who favor independence and those who argue for a future as part of China will play a more central role. | Those races focused on local issues, and none of the offices has a say over cross-strait policy. But in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections, the divide between those who favor independence and those who argue for a future as part of China will play a more central role. |
| Some voters question economic cooperation because China has not renounced the possible use of force against the island. Others believe the increased ties have not benefited most Taiwanese: While trade between the two sides has soared under President Ma Ying-jeou, wages have remained stagnant. | Some voters question economic cooperation because China has not renounced the possible use of force against the island. Others believe the increased ties have not benefited most Taiwanese: While trade between the two sides has soared under President Ma Ying-jeou, wages have remained stagnant. |
| The trade in services pact has stalled in the legislature. As part of the compromise that brought an end to the Sunflower protests last spring, lawmakers are debating new rules for monitoring agreements with China before taking any further action on the deal. | The trade in services pact has stalled in the legislature. As part of the compromise that brought an end to the Sunflower protests last spring, lawmakers are debating new rules for monitoring agreements with China before taking any further action on the deal. |
| Approval of the pact or any other deals with China seems unlikely for the remainder of Mr. Ma’s term, observers say. He stepped down as head of his party to accept blame for the Kuomintang’s electoral drubbing. | Approval of the pact or any other deals with China seems unlikely for the remainder of Mr. Ma’s term, observers say. He stepped down as head of his party to accept blame for the Kuomintang’s electoral drubbing. |
| Beijing made little comment about the election outcome, but observers say cross-strait relations may become more complicated. | Beijing made little comment about the election outcome, but observers say cross-strait relations may become more complicated. |
| “Taiwan is going to be increasingly in the public eye because of growing tension with the mainland,” said Jerome A. Cohen, a New York University law professor who focuses on the region. “It will have implications for U.S.-mainland policy and for U.S.-Taiwan policy.” | “Taiwan is going to be increasingly in the public eye because of growing tension with the mainland,” said Jerome A. Cohen, a New York University law professor who focuses on the region. “It will have implications for U.S.-mainland policy and for U.S.-Taiwan policy.” |
| He said he foresaw a period of increased acrimony in the region as the possibility for further cross-strait agreements diminished. | He said he foresaw a period of increased acrimony in the region as the possibility for further cross-strait agreements diminished. |
| But leaders of the opposition, known as the D.P.P., say such fears are overblown and based largely on the record of President Chen Shui-bian, the D.P.P. leader who served from 2000 to 2008. | But leaders of the opposition, known as the D.P.P., say such fears are overblown and based largely on the record of President Chen Shui-bian, the D.P.P. leader who served from 2000 to 2008. |
| “Whoever has the chance to be entertained as a potential candidate for 2016 presidential election, they’re different,” said Joseph Wu, the D.P.P.'s secretary general. “They’re not Chen Shui-bian.” | “Whoever has the chance to be entertained as a potential candidate for 2016 presidential election, they’re different,” said Joseph Wu, the D.P.P.'s secretary general. “They’re not Chen Shui-bian.” |
| Mr. Chen, Taiwan’s only non-Kuomintang president, was an advocate of independence who often angered China and worried the United States. | Mr. Chen, Taiwan’s only non-Kuomintang president, was an advocate of independence who often angered China and worried the United States. |
| The party’s new generation of politicians is more measured, Mr. Wu said. | The party’s new generation of politicians is more measured, Mr. Wu said. |
| “They have different qualities and understand very well the dynamics of the U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship,” he said. “They also have a very clear understanding of values we should treasure in our relationship with the United States and they also understand the sensitivity of our China policy.” | “They have different qualities and understand very well the dynamics of the U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship,” he said. “They also have a very clear understanding of values we should treasure in our relationship with the United States and they also understand the sensitivity of our China policy.” |
| Mr. Ma’s cross-strait policy helped him pull in voters in 2012, putting pressure on the D.P.P. to reconsider its China policy. | Mr. Ma’s cross-strait policy helped him pull in voters in 2012, putting pressure on the D.P.P. to reconsider its China policy. |
| In recent years, it has worked to develop closer ties with Beijing despite their mutual suspicions. D.P.P. politicians like former Premier Frank Hsieh and Mayor Chen Chu of Kaohsiung, a southern port city, have visited China. And Mayor Chen hosted Zhang Zhijun, head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, in June. | In recent years, it has worked to develop closer ties with Beijing despite their mutual suspicions. D.P.P. politicians like former Premier Frank Hsieh and Mayor Chen Chu of Kaohsiung, a southern port city, have visited China. And Mayor Chen hosted Zhang Zhijun, head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, in June. |
| The party has even debated a freeze to the call in its party platform for Taiwanese independence. | The party has even debated a freeze to the call in its party platform for Taiwanese independence. |
| Some D.P.P. leaders fear the United States may try to derail their chances by speaking out in favor of the Kuomintang, in the belief that the governing party is better at managing cross-strait ties. They are still smarting from a comment by an American official in 2012 that they believe damaged their prospects. | Some D.P.P. leaders fear the United States may try to derail their chances by speaking out in favor of the Kuomintang, in the belief that the governing party is better at managing cross-strait ties. They are still smarting from a comment by an American official in 2012 that they believe damaged their prospects. |
| Richard C. Bush III, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto United States Embassy, said at a forum in September this year that he expected the United States government “at some time and in some way will express itself on the implications of the 2016 election for U.S. interests.” | Richard C. Bush III, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto United States Embassy, said at a forum in September this year that he expected the United States government “at some time and in some way will express itself on the implications of the 2016 election for U.S. interests.” |
| But rather than fight an increasingly popular D.P.P., some analysts say, the United States should adjust to the prospect of the opposition coming to power. | But rather than fight an increasingly popular D.P.P., some analysts say, the United States should adjust to the prospect of the opposition coming to power. |
| “I think Washington is going to have to come to terms with what it might mean and prepare for that,” said William Stanton, director of the Center for Asia Policy at National Tsing Hua University in Hsinchu and a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan. | “I think Washington is going to have to come to terms with what it might mean and prepare for that,” said William Stanton, director of the Center for Asia Policy at National Tsing Hua University in Hsinchu and a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan. |
| What it might mean, especially with the election still more than a year away, is subject to debate even within the opposition. | What it might mean, especially with the election still more than a year away, is subject to debate even within the opposition. |
| “The ideological spectrum within the D.P.P. is so wide,” said Wu Chung-li, a political scientist at Academia Sinica, a state-run research institution. “Some factions are willing to have contact with mainland China. Other factions, especially some radical ideologists, are not willing to have contact with the mainland. Actually, it always is the big issue for the party. No matter who will be the presidential candidate, he or she will have to face the music to deal with the China factor.” | “The ideological spectrum within the D.P.P. is so wide,” said Wu Chung-li, a political scientist at Academia Sinica, a state-run research institution. “Some factions are willing to have contact with mainland China. Other factions, especially some radical ideologists, are not willing to have contact with the mainland. Actually, it always is the big issue for the party. No matter who will be the presidential candidate, he or she will have to face the music to deal with the China factor.” |