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| Recession in the US 'has arrived' | Recession in the US 'has arrived' |
| (20 minutes later) | |
| The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch. | The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch. |
| It said that Friday's employment report, which sent shares tumbling worldwide, confirmed that the US is in the first month of a recession. | |
| Its view is controversial, with banks such as Lehman Brothers disagreeing. | Its view is controversial, with banks such as Lehman Brothers disagreeing. |
| An official ruling on whether the US in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years. | An official ruling on whether the US in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years. |
| The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months". | The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months". |
| It bases its assessment on final figures on employment, personal income, industrial production and sales activity in the manufacturing and retail sectors. | It bases its assessment on final figures on employment, personal income, industrial production and sales activity in the manufacturing and retail sectors. |
| Merrill Lynch said that the figures showing the jobless rate hitting 5% in December were the final piece in that puzzle. | Merrill Lynch said that the figures showing the jobless rate hitting 5% in December were the final piece in that puzzle. |
| "According to our analysis, this isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality," the report said. | "According to our analysis, this isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality," the report said. |
| It added that the current consensus view on Wall Street that there is a good chance of avoiding a recession is "in denial". | It added that the current consensus view on Wall Street that there is a good chance of avoiding a recession is "in denial". |
| It also objected to the use of euphemistic terms for the state of the economy. | It also objected to the use of euphemistic terms for the state of the economy. |
| "To say that the backdrop is 'recession like' is akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is 'sort of pregnant'," the report said. | "To say that the backdrop is 'recession like' is akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is 'sort of pregnant'," the report said. |