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| Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union starts in 2015 with curtailed ambitions | Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union starts in 2015 with curtailed ambitions |
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| MOSCOW — It was to have been Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy triumph: a grand alliance to rival to the European Union, stretching from Ukraine to the Pacific. | MOSCOW — It was to have been Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy triumph: a grand alliance to rival to the European Union, stretching from Ukraine to the Pacific. |
| But with conflict engulfing Ukraine, the pact that will go into effect on Jan. 1 is a more modest version of Putin’s lofty vision. On Tuesday, the leaders of four former members of the Soviet Union gathered in Moscow to discuss the final arrangements for a deal that will draw their economies closer together. It will fall short of the ambitious project that would have given the Kremlin far more sway over its neighbors’ policies. | But with conflict engulfing Ukraine, the pact that will go into effect on Jan. 1 is a more modest version of Putin’s lofty vision. On Tuesday, the leaders of four former members of the Soviet Union gathered in Moscow to discuss the final arrangements for a deal that will draw their economies closer together. It will fall short of the ambitious project that would have given the Kremlin far more sway over its neighbors’ policies. |
| Instead, Putin is stitching together a partnership of skittish allies. Nations such as Kazakhstan and Belarus welcome the economic opportunities. But they fear winding up like Ukraine, where Russia helped fuel a conflict that has claimed 4,700 lives this year. | Instead, Putin is stitching together a partnership of skittish allies. Nations such as Kazakhstan and Belarus welcome the economic opportunities. But they fear winding up like Ukraine, where Russia helped fuel a conflict that has claimed 4,700 lives this year. |
| Putin once viewed the alliance, known as the Eurasian Economic Union, as a way to rebuild some of the political and economic clout of the Soviet Union by centralizing political and economic policies in Moscow. European nations have handed portions of their sovereignty to Brussels, the capital of the European Union, under the theory that the 28 countries are more powerful together than individually. | Putin once viewed the alliance, known as the Eurasian Economic Union, as a way to rebuild some of the political and economic clout of the Soviet Union by centralizing political and economic policies in Moscow. European nations have handed portions of their sovereignty to Brussels, the capital of the European Union, under the theory that the 28 countries are more powerful together than individually. |
| Ukraine was to have been the jewel of the project, binding the country’s 45 million residents to economic development within Russia’s sphere. Putin’s aim was to restore some of the influence that had been lost after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Ukraine had other ideas, though. When heavy Kremlin pressure led President Viktor Yanukovych to abandon plans to move closer to the European Union, the streets of Kiev erupted in protests. In February, he was ousted from power. And on Tuesday in Kiev, lawmakers voted to move a step closer toward the NATO Western defense alliance, precisely the opposite of Putin’s goal. | Ukraine was to have been the jewel of the project, binding the country’s 45 million residents to economic development within Russia’s sphere. Putin’s aim was to restore some of the influence that had been lost after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Ukraine had other ideas, though. When heavy Kremlin pressure led President Viktor Yanukovych to abandon plans to move closer to the European Union, the streets of Kiev erupted in protests. In February, he was ousted from power. And on Tuesday in Kiev, lawmakers voted to move a step closer toward the NATO Western defense alliance, precisely the opposite of Putin’s goal. |
| Shorn of Ukraine as a partner in the project, Putin annexed the country’s Crimean Peninsula in March and ignited the worst tensions between the West and Russia since the Cold War. Western sanctions have hit Russia’s economy hard. And the Kremlin’s retaliatory measure — a ban on imports of most Western food products — has hurt the notion of a borderless economic alliance, because countries such as Belarus and Kazakhstan aren’t interested in taking part. | |
| “We have just had a fairly active, very, I would say, stormy discussion of the details of our joint work,” Putin said in Moscow on Tuesday after meeting the leaders of other prospective alliance members. | |
| The alliance “will give an additional impetus to our economies, will become a powerful center of the entire region,” he said. | |
| But Russia’s partners are also fearful of a repetition of the Ukrainian violence in their own nations and worried about Russia’s economic problems spreading over the border. Belarus and Kazakhstan have large ethnic Russian populations, a group the Kremlin has used to apply pressure on neighbors when they fall out of line. Russia’s economy is also expected to contract next year, and the volatile ruble is down 40 percent this year against the dollar. | |
| That has led Russia’s partners to be cautious about giving up political sovereignty to the extent Putin would have liked. As if to show their independence and to thumb their noses at Putin, the leaders of both Kazakhstan and Belarus visited Kiev in recent days, where they announced new programs to help support Ukraine in an economic crisis that threatens to bankrupt the government. | That has led Russia’s partners to be cautious about giving up political sovereignty to the extent Putin would have liked. As if to show their independence and to thumb their noses at Putin, the leaders of both Kazakhstan and Belarus visited Kiev in recent days, where they announced new programs to help support Ukraine in an economic crisis that threatens to bankrupt the government. |
| Armenia is also set to join the alliance, and Kyrgyzstan is in talks to do so. | Armenia is also set to join the alliance, and Kyrgyzstan is in talks to do so. |
| In a Monday visit to Kiev, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev called the conflict in Ukraine “nonsense” during a meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. The Kazakh leader announced that he would start shipping Kazakh coal to Ukraine, which has faced a shortage because pro-Russian rebels have claimed key portions of eastern Ukraine’s coal-rich territory. He also said that Ukraine’s and Kazakhstan’s defense industries would collaborate — an unusual rejection of a powerful Russian industry. | In a Monday visit to Kiev, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev called the conflict in Ukraine “nonsense” during a meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. The Kazakh leader announced that he would start shipping Kazakh coal to Ukraine, which has faced a shortage because pro-Russian rebels have claimed key portions of eastern Ukraine’s coal-rich territory. He also said that Ukraine’s and Kazakhstan’s defense industries would collaborate — an unusual rejection of a powerful Russian industry. |
| “The current situation is not good for anyone. Keeping in mind that we have friendly relations with all countries, we can work with you on this issue,” Nazarbayev told Poroshenko, according to Nazarbayev’s press service. He said he would work to help end the Ukrainian conflict. | “The current situation is not good for anyone. Keeping in mind that we have friendly relations with all countries, we can work with you on this issue,” Nazarbayev told Poroshenko, according to Nazarbayev’s press service. He said he would work to help end the Ukrainian conflict. |
| Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has also pushed hard against Putin, staking out an independent line even though his nation’s economy is deeply dependent on Russia’s. In his capital, Minsk, he has played host to negotiators from both sides of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, hoping to foster a lasting truce. More talks are expected to be held Wednesday and Friday this week. | Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has also pushed hard against Putin, staking out an independent line even though his nation’s economy is deeply dependent on Russia’s. In his capital, Minsk, he has played host to negotiators from both sides of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, hoping to foster a lasting truce. More talks are expected to be held Wednesday and Friday this week. |
| “The conduct of our eastern brother cannot help but cause our concern today,” Lukashenko told his security council last week, referring to Russia. | “The conduct of our eastern brother cannot help but cause our concern today,” Lukashenko told his security council last week, referring to Russia. |
| Lukashenko’s tough words for Russia and a growing flirtation with the United States drew a warning this week from a top Russian lawmaker. | Lukashenko’s tough words for Russia and a growing flirtation with the United States drew a warning this week from a top Russian lawmaker. |
| He referred to the former leaders of Yugoslavia, Libya and Iraq, all of whom are now dead. They “tried to become friends with the United States. Their fate is well known. Now the U.S. is offering ‘new relations’ to Lukashenko. That is a dangerous experience,” said Alexei Pushkov, the head of the foreign affairs committee of Russia’s lower house of parliament, on Twitter. | He referred to the former leaders of Yugoslavia, Libya and Iraq, all of whom are now dead. They “tried to become friends with the United States. Their fate is well known. Now the U.S. is offering ‘new relations’ to Lukashenko. That is a dangerous experience,” said Alexei Pushkov, the head of the foreign affairs committee of Russia’s lower house of parliament, on Twitter. |
| But even if Cold War-level tensions have overtaken some of Putin’s original hopes for the project, the efforts are still a Kremlin focus, analysts said. | But even if Cold War-level tensions have overtaken some of Putin’s original hopes for the project, the efforts are still a Kremlin focus, analysts said. |
| The alliance is “another attempt to find a proper way to reunify, economically at least, this larger space,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, the head of a prominent foreign policy advisory group. | The alliance is “another attempt to find a proper way to reunify, economically at least, this larger space,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, the head of a prominent foreign policy advisory group. |
| “It wasn’t ever a restoration of the Soviet Union. This ambition didn’t exist. But to keep the common economic space and certain political institutions, that was the goal.” | “It wasn’t ever a restoration of the Soviet Union. This ambition didn’t exist. But to keep the common economic space and certain political institutions, that was the goal.” |