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| Old-Guard Politician Seen Leading Tunisia’s Interim President in Runoff Election | Old-Guard Politician Seen Leading Tunisia’s Interim President in Runoff Election |
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| TUNIS — Supporters of Beji Caid Essebsi, a veteran statesman who served in the governments of both of Tunisia’s former dictators, celebrated his expected victory in Sunday’s presidential runoff as three exit polls showed him in the lead. His rival, the interim president Moncef Marzouki, did not concede defeat. | TUNIS — Supporters of Beji Caid Essebsi, a veteran statesman who served in the governments of both of Tunisia’s former dictators, celebrated his expected victory in Sunday’s presidential runoff as three exit polls showed him in the lead. His rival, the interim president Moncef Marzouki, did not concede defeat. |
| Mr. Essebsi, 88, appeared briefly onstage in front of his headquarters on Sunday night and saluted Tunisians for their actions in 2011 that set off the Arab Spring, and thanked them for their trust. He did not claim victory, although his campaign manager said early returns indicated that he had won. A television channel, Nessma TV, which supported Mr. Essebsi’s campaign, called the election in his favor. | Mr. Essebsi, 88, appeared briefly onstage in front of his headquarters on Sunday night and saluted Tunisians for their actions in 2011 that set off the Arab Spring, and thanked them for their trust. He did not claim victory, although his campaign manager said early returns indicated that he had won. A television channel, Nessma TV, which supported Mr. Essebsi’s campaign, called the election in his favor. |
| Mr. Marzouki said the tally remained too close to call. “The margin is minimal and the polls unreliable,” said his campaign manager and spokesman, Adnen Mansour. | Mr. Marzouki said the tally remained too close to call. “The margin is minimal and the polls unreliable,” said his campaign manager and spokesman, Adnen Mansour. |
| Three exit polls conducted by private Tunisian polling companies showed Mr. Essebsi with 52 percent to 55 percent of the vote and Mr. Marzouki with 44 percent to 47 percent. Official results were not expected before Monday. | |
| Mr. Marzouki, 69, a former human rights activist and longtime opponent of Tunisia’s dictators, waved to supporters from the balcony of his party headquarters. He told them that Tunisia had put “an end to the ridiculous elections of the old regime,” a reference to votes that were often falsified under Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who was ousted in 2011. | Mr. Marzouki, 69, a former human rights activist and longtime opponent of Tunisia’s dictators, waved to supporters from the balcony of his party headquarters. He told them that Tunisia had put “an end to the ridiculous elections of the old regime,” a reference to votes that were often falsified under Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who was ousted in 2011. |
| A win by Mr. Essebsi had been widely predicted, and would confirm the country’s shift away from the Islamist-led alliance that has led since 2011 and back to a familiar figure from the past. Some see it as a rollback of the revolution, others simply as a rejection of the years under Ennahda, the main Islamist party, and Mr. Marzouki, which brought a rise in terrorism, crime and inflation and set off a yearning for security and stability. | A win by Mr. Essebsi had been widely predicted, and would confirm the country’s shift away from the Islamist-led alliance that has led since 2011 and back to a familiar figure from the past. Some see it as a rollback of the revolution, others simply as a rejection of the years under Ennahda, the main Islamist party, and Mr. Marzouki, which brought a rise in terrorism, crime and inflation and set off a yearning for security and stability. |
| Mr. Essebsi seems to offer that, in spite of his links to the authoritarian past. He served as interior minister under Tunisia’s repressive first president, Habib Bourguiba, and as speaker of Parliament under Mr. Ben Ali. Yet he was acceptable enough to serve as interim prime minister after the revolt, and he led the country into its first free and democratic elections for the National Constituent Assembly in 2011. | Mr. Essebsi seems to offer that, in spite of his links to the authoritarian past. He served as interior minister under Tunisia’s repressive first president, Habib Bourguiba, and as speaker of Parliament under Mr. Ben Ali. Yet he was acceptable enough to serve as interim prime minister after the revolt, and he led the country into its first free and democratic elections for the National Constituent Assembly in 2011. |
| Cheering crowds gathered outside Mr. Essebsi’s party headquarters minutes after polls closed on Sunday evening. Supporters set off fireworks in a shower of sparks as car horns honked. | Cheering crowds gathered outside Mr. Essebsi’s party headquarters minutes after polls closed on Sunday evening. Supporters set off fireworks in a shower of sparks as car horns honked. |
| “I came to celebrate,” one woman called out. Asked if Mr. Essebsi had won, she answered, “Tunisia won!” | “I came to celebrate,” one woman called out. Asked if Mr. Essebsi had won, she answered, “Tunisia won!” |
| Yet a driver, Mohamed Jouini, watched the crowd gloomily. “I am sad,” he said. “It is not that Essebsi won. He is Tunisian, he is one of us. But it is because nothing changed. I was out there four years ago, shouting, demonstrating, and nothing changed.” | Yet a driver, Mohamed Jouini, watched the crowd gloomily. “I am sad,” he said. “It is not that Essebsi won. He is Tunisian, he is one of us. But it is because nothing changed. I was out there four years ago, shouting, demonstrating, and nothing changed.” |
| He said he came from one of the poorest neighborhoods of Tunis, the capital, and was a college graduate but earned just $5 to $10 a day. “There are the rich, and there are the poor,” he said. “Those people celebrating are the rich. They have a house, a car and a salary.” | He said he came from one of the poorest neighborhoods of Tunis, the capital, and was a college graduate but earned just $5 to $10 a day. “There are the rich, and there are the poor,” he said. “Those people celebrating are the rich. They have a house, a car and a salary.” |
| Tunisia has been singled out as the one Arab country that has navigated a peaceful change in the past four years, passing a new Constitution and holding well-run legislative and presidential elections. Yet voters have expressed widespread frustration with the transitional government and Mr. Marzouki, and shifted their support toward Mr. Essebsi and his party, Nidaa Tounes, or Call for Tunisia. Mr. Essebsi won the most votes in the first round of the presidential election on Nov. 23, and Nidaa Tounes won a plurality of 86 seats in October’s parliamentary elections. | Tunisia has been singled out as the one Arab country that has navigated a peaceful change in the past four years, passing a new Constitution and holding well-run legislative and presidential elections. Yet voters have expressed widespread frustration with the transitional government and Mr. Marzouki, and shifted their support toward Mr. Essebsi and his party, Nidaa Tounes, or Call for Tunisia. Mr. Essebsi won the most votes in the first round of the presidential election on Nov. 23, and Nidaa Tounes won a plurality of 86 seats in October’s parliamentary elections. |
| “We need a president to bring security, to put an end to terrorism and bring back the authority of the state,” Wassila Meziou, a teacher, said Sunday in the working-class district of Jebel Jelloud in Tunis. “We want our life to go back to how it was, because in the last three years it got really bad.” | “We need a president to bring security, to put an end to terrorism and bring back the authority of the state,” Wassila Meziou, a teacher, said Sunday in the working-class district of Jebel Jelloud in Tunis. “We want our life to go back to how it was, because in the last three years it got really bad.” |
| Rim Sassi, a homemaker, said: “We’ve had enough of this situation. We want a president to fix the problems, to bring employment for the young people and bring down the cost of living.” | Rim Sassi, a homemaker, said: “We’ve had enough of this situation. We want a president to fix the problems, to bring employment for the young people and bring down the cost of living.” |
| But the election revealed deep divisions. In the first round, much of the capital and the population of the east coast voted for Mr. Essebsi, while the poorer southern part of the country and the interior voted for Mr. Marzouki, who is from the south. | But the election revealed deep divisions. In the first round, much of the capital and the population of the east coast voted for Mr. Essebsi, while the poorer southern part of the country and the interior voted for Mr. Marzouki, who is from the south. |
| Moreover, while Ennahda did not have a candidate in the presidential race and did not endorse any candidate, its supporters largely backed Mr. Marzouki, whose Congress for the Republic party has been a coalition partner. Many cite concerns about Mr. Essebsi’s links to the Bourguiba government. | Moreover, while Ennahda did not have a candidate in the presidential race and did not endorse any candidate, its supporters largely backed Mr. Marzouki, whose Congress for the Republic party has been a coalition partner. Many cite concerns about Mr. Essebsi’s links to the Bourguiba government. |
| “I voted Marzouki,” said a man wearing a traditional red cap in the district of Ben Arous. “First of all, I thought one of the candidates is a criminal and one is clean. We know the history.” Of Mr. Essebsi, he said, “We were raised under his torture under the orders of Bourguiba.” He said that he was a taxi driver and that his name was Ali, but he declined to give his surname, still cautious about talking openly about politics. | “I voted Marzouki,” said a man wearing a traditional red cap in the district of Ben Arous. “First of all, I thought one of the candidates is a criminal and one is clean. We know the history.” Of Mr. Essebsi, he said, “We were raised under his torture under the orders of Bourguiba.” He said that he was a taxi driver and that his name was Ali, but he declined to give his surname, still cautious about talking openly about politics. |
| “We had a revolution because of people like this,” said another voter, Rabii Ben Ali, an engineer. The revolution still has years more to run, he said. “The young people are with Marzouki. The person who will drive this country to revolution is not an old man.” | “We had a revolution because of people like this,” said another voter, Rabii Ben Ali, an engineer. The revolution still has years more to run, he said. “The young people are with Marzouki. The person who will drive this country to revolution is not an old man.” |
| In a recent report, Michael Ayari, director of the International Crisis Group in Tunisia, warned that Tunisia’s stability was tenuous because of its sharp divisions. “Whoever wins the presidential election will have to work alongside the new government and Parliament to calm both camps’ anxieties, address their legitimate grievances and heal the country’s divisions,” the report said. | In a recent report, Michael Ayari, director of the International Crisis Group in Tunisia, warned that Tunisia’s stability was tenuous because of its sharp divisions. “Whoever wins the presidential election will have to work alongside the new government and Parliament to calm both camps’ anxieties, address their legitimate grievances and heal the country’s divisions,” the report said. |
| Many voters were not happy with either presidential candidate but were pragmatic about their choice. A businessman, Wagih Aloui, 31, said Tunisia was not giving up on the ideals of the uprising, but choosing a middle road. | Many voters were not happy with either presidential candidate but were pragmatic about their choice. A businessman, Wagih Aloui, 31, said Tunisia was not giving up on the ideals of the uprising, but choosing a middle road. |
| “It will be a fusion between dictatorship and freedom,” Mr. Aloui said. “If it goes back to repression, we have lost, but then we have to look how to win it back.” | “It will be a fusion between dictatorship and freedom,” Mr. Aloui said. “If it goes back to repression, we have lost, but then we have to look how to win it back.” |