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Iran nuclear talks resume in Geneva Iran nuclear talks resume in Geneva
(about 3 hours later)
After failing to reach agreement in Vienna by a November 24 deadline after nine months of negotiations, diplomats are sitting down in Geneva today to try to keep the momentum for a nuclear deal going.After failing to reach agreement in Vienna by a November 24 deadline after nine months of negotiations, diplomats are sitting down in Geneva today to try to keep the momentum for a nuclear deal going.
The deadline was extended until the beginning of July 2015, with the aim of agreeing a framework deal by March 1. The race is on to meet those looming deadlines under the added pressure of a new hawkish, Republican-run US Congress preparing to convene in the first week of January.The deadline was extended until the beginning of July 2015, with the aim of agreeing a framework deal by March 1. The race is on to meet those looming deadlines under the added pressure of a new hawkish, Republican-run US Congress preparing to convene in the first week of January.
The mood is downbeat and sober compared to the tantalising hopes awakened in Vienna with the arrival of US secretary of state John Kerry to meet face-to-face with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, accompanied by five other foreign ministers from major powers.The mood is downbeat and sober compared to the tantalising hopes awakened in Vienna with the arrival of US secretary of state John Kerry to meet face-to-face with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, accompanied by five other foreign ministers from major powers.
Now we know, more or less, the scale and nature of the obstacles that prevented them clinching an agreement. It was expected that the major sticking points would be the scale of Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity and the pace of sanctions relief. It is now clear that the precise red lines were Iran’s requirement that its right to industrial-scale enrichment be recognised in principle, even if it will be subject to limits in the next few years, and Tehran’s insistence that it would not take irreversible (or very difficult to reverse) steps, like dismantling plant and infrastructure without an equivalent lifting (rather than the suspension) of sanctions. The US position was that the overall sanctions architecture should be kept in place, and for Iranian enrichment capacity to be kept strictly in line with the country’s needs for power generation.Now we know, more or less, the scale and nature of the obstacles that prevented them clinching an agreement. It was expected that the major sticking points would be the scale of Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity and the pace of sanctions relief. It is now clear that the precise red lines were Iran’s requirement that its right to industrial-scale enrichment be recognised in principle, even if it will be subject to limits in the next few years, and Tehran’s insistence that it would not take irreversible (or very difficult to reverse) steps, like dismantling plant and infrastructure without an equivalent lifting (rather than the suspension) of sanctions. The US position was that the overall sanctions architecture should be kept in place, and for Iranian enrichment capacity to be kept strictly in line with the country’s needs for power generation.
This remains a wide gap to bridge. The talks have begun on a low key, without Kerry or Zarif or any of the other foreign ministers for the time being. Wendy Sherman, the acting deputy secretary of state, is leading the US team, while the Iranians are led by two deputy foreign ministers, Abbas Araghchi and Mehdi Takh Ravanchi. This remains a wide gap to bridge. The talks have begun on a low key, without Kerry or Zarif or any of the other foreign ministers for the time being. Wendy Sherman, the acting deputy secretary of state, is leading the US team, while the Iranians are led by two deputy foreign ministers, Abbas Araghchi and Majid Takht Ravanchi.
But more important than the people is the process. This time the talks have quickly entered their most effective forum, bilateral encounters between the Americans and the Iranians, without the need for the presence of Cathy Ashton, the former EU foreign policy chief or her deputy to ensure the other five countries in the talks (the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China) to be kept constantly in the loop.But more important than the people is the process. This time the talks have quickly entered their most effective forum, bilateral encounters between the Americans and the Iranians, without the need for the presence of Cathy Ashton, the former EU foreign policy chief or her deputy to ensure the other five countries in the talks (the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China) to be kept constantly in the loop.
As the International Crisis Group points out in its comprehensive assessment of the talks, Iran Nuclear Talks: The Fog Recedes, this was an essential procedural short-cut that was agreed at the end of the Vienna talks.As the International Crisis Group points out in its comprehensive assessment of the talks, Iran Nuclear Talks: The Fog Recedes, this was an essential procedural short-cut that was agreed at the end of the Vienna talks.
The ICG report said an second procedural tweak was made to reverse “an ill-advised decision to jointly tackle political and technical questions”. A lot of the technical data, and various versions of a final deal have already been drafted. What remains to be done is the hammering out of a political compromise. That is what is on the table in Geneva.The ICG report said an second procedural tweak was made to reverse “an ill-advised decision to jointly tackle political and technical questions”. A lot of the technical data, and various versions of a final deal have already been drafted. What remains to be done is the hammering out of a political compromise. That is what is on the table in Geneva.