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Faced with few options, Japan gives Prime Minister Abe more time to fix the economy Faced with few options, Japan gives Prime Minister Abe more time to fix the economy
(about 7 hours later)
TOKYO — Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party looked set for a landslide victory Sunday in a snap parliamentary election, giving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe four more years to try to fix the economy and to shake off the country’s wartime legacy. TOKYO — With a new electoral mandate and the real prospect of four more years in power, Japan’s Shinzo Abe on Sunday laid out an ambitious agenda for his government, encompassing economic revival and a more active role on the global stage.
As polls closed at 8 p.m., the state broadcaster NHK projected that the LDP would win 275 to 306 seats in the 475-seat House of Representatives, a shift from 294 seats going into the election. Its coalition partner, the Komeito, was expected to take between 31 and 36 seats. Although turnout was at a record low, Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Komeito, won a “super-majority” in the lower house in a snap parliamentary election held Sunday.
That would constitute a landslide return for the coalition, which benefitted from a divided and disorganized opposition that was caught by surprise when Abe called the election last month, two years ahead of schedule. The prime minister dissolved the lower house to seek voters’ approval to continue with his “Abenomics” revival strategy even as the economy slipped back into recession. Abe’s political calculation that it would be better to call an election now, before the economy deteriorates further, appears to have paid off, analysts said.
As vote counting continued, Abe looked set to win that approval in terms of seat numbers but not in terms of voter enthusiasm. “The top priority is economy,” Abe, asked about his plans, told the state broadcaster NHK as the results were still rolling in on Sunday night. “We will proceed with our strategic diplomacy, taking a bird’s eye view of the globe, increase Japan’s status in the world and protect our national interest.”
Polls opened at 7 a.m. Sunday, but visitors to polling stations around the country reported only a trickle of people coming in to cast votes. The internal affairs ministry said that turnout was 29.11 percent by 4 p.m., almost six points lower than at the same time on Election Day 2012, a year when a record low for turnout was set. The 60-year-old prime minister had called the election as a referendum on his “Abenomics” strategy to revive the economy, mainly by pumping in huge amounts of money.
The weather was cold in many parts of the country, including in Tokyo, which received its first snowfall of the season. This approach appeared to have failed when the economy last quarter tipped into recession, but Abe went to the electorate with the campaign slogan: “This road is the only road.”
But the bigger problem was a chilly feeling toward politicians. While many voters expressed doubt that Abe’s ambitious plans for reviving the economy mainly by pumping in huge amounts of money would work, they saw little alternative to voting for his party. Even if it does not entirely believe it, the electorate appears to have conceded Abe’s point.
“The LDP is not the best, but it’s a better choice than other parties,” said Hiroaki Kawana, a 52-year-old civil servant who voted in a quiet school building in central Tokyo. The LDP won 290 seats in the 475-seat House of Representatives, down from 295 before the election, while Komeito won 35, as of early Monday morning. The main opposition Democratic Party won 73 seats, up from 62 but a far cry from the 100 seats it had hoped for.
But Tobias Harris, a Japan expert at Teneo Intelligence, said that low turnout would not ultimately prevent Abe from doing what he wanted. His resounding victory could propel Abe through an LDP leadership contest next year and upper house elections in 2016, and into the ranks of the very few Japanese prime ministers in the last quarter-century who have survived more than two years in office.
“A parliamentary majority is a parliamentary majority,” Harris said. “But low turnout may limit the momentum Abe gets from the election because as falling support for the Abe cabinet during the campaign suggests plenty of voters just don’t support Abe or his main policy priorities.” Abe — the grandson of postwar prime minister Nobusuke Kishi, who wanted to restore Japan’s honor has set a goal of making Japan a “beautiful country” again. He views reviving the economy after two “lost decades” and burnishing a reputation tarnished by World War II as the key to that beauty.
A procession of Japanese prime ministers has tried to revive the economy after two “lost decades” of falling prices and sluggish growth. After taking power two years ago, Abe appeared to be having some success with his three-pronged strategy of easy money supply, huge government spending projects and starting painful structural reforms.A procession of Japanese prime ministers has tried to revive the economy after two “lost decades” of falling prices and sluggish growth. After taking power two years ago, Abe appeared to be having some success with his three-pronged strategy of easy money supply, huge government spending projects and starting painful structural reforms.
But an increase in the consumption tax in April, the first in 17 years, stopped the economy in its tracks. Japanese people, not used to price increases, simply gave up shopping, tipping the economy back into recession. But an increase in the consumption tax in April, the first in 17 years, stopped the economy in its tracks. Japanese people, not used to price rises, simply gave up shopping, tipping the economy back into recession.
Abe has postponed a second planned increase in the consumption tax — which would have seen the tax double to 10 percent in less than two years — to stabilize the economy.Abe has postponed a second planned increase in the consumption tax — which would have seen the tax double to 10 percent in less than two years — to stabilize the economy.
The economy’s lackluster performance has weighed on Abe’s ratings. An opinion poll published in the Nikkei business newspaper Friday showed that the disapproval rating with the prime minister and his cabinet now matches its approval rating, at 42 percent. While many voters expressed doubt about Abenomics, they saw little alternative to voting for his party.
But some voters, like Yoshiko Hatano, a 67-year-old cleaner, said she voted for the LDP to give the prime minister more time to pursue his economic strategy. “The LDP is not the best, but it’s a better choice than other parties,” said Hiroaki Kawana, a 52-year-old civil servant who voted in a quiet school building in central Tokyo.
“I think Abenomics isn’t going smoothly yet, but I’m interested in where it might go. I want to give them some more time,” she said. “I feel like the employment situation has improved. I thought about quitting my job, but there are no new applicants to replace me because there are other job openings elsewhere.” Others, like Yoshiko Hatano, a 67-year-old cleaner, said she voted for the LDP to give the prime minister a chance.“I think Abenomics isn’t going smoothly yet but I’m interested in where it might go. I want to give them some more time,” she said.
But Emi Hori, a 35-year-old working for a patent company, said that she voted for the Communist Party because she wanted to support anyone but Abe and his LDP. While he won a landslide, the record-low turnout at 52 percent, it was the lowest in Japan’s postwar history did not exactly give Abe the full-throated mandate he sought.
“He scares me a little,” she said. “Someone like him is serving as a prime minister? That’s scary. He’s not reliable. I think our constitution is fine just the way it is.” Tobias Harris, a Japan expert at Teneo Intelligence, a consulting firm, said this would not prevent Abe from doing what he wanted. “A parliamentary majority is a parliamentary majority,” he said.
She was referring to Abe’s plan to reinterpret Japan’s constitution to free the country’s military forces of some of their postwar constraints. However, it could act as a drag on reforms as time passed. “Low turnout may limit the momentum Abe gets from the election because as falling support for the Abe cabinet during the campaign suggests plenty of voters just don’t support Abe or his main policy priorities,” he said.
Under the “collective self-defense” plan Abe has laid out, Japan’s military services will be allowed to help the United States if it comes under attack, something currently prohibited, but it would still not be allowed to take offensive action. The plans are highly controversial in Japan, with many people here saying such changes are unnecessary. Abe said that the low turnout rate was “a shame” and said it was up to all Japanese to create the “Japan of tomorrow.”
“I want to continue operating the Diet humbly and carefully, implementing policies sincerely based on what we hear from Japanese people, and executing our responsibilities,” he told NHK.
Getting the economy moving again has been critical for generating support for his government and for the other part of Abe’s “beautification” strategy.
Abe and many of his fellow conservatives in Japan believe that the country has been too weak in its dealings with its neighbors, South Korea and China. Abe has taken a more assertive approach — pointedly including efforts to shake off the postwar shackles on Japan’s military — but this is highly controversial in Japan, with many people here saying such changes create conflict and are unnecessary.
Yuki Oda contributed to this report.Yuki Oda contributed to this report.