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Japanese PM Shinzo Abe set to tighten grip on power Japanese PM Shinzo Abe tightens grip on power with election victory
(about 1 hour later)
Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, seems likely to tighten his grip on power after exit polls forecast that his Liberal Democratic party would win a comfortable majority in general elections on Sunday – albeit on a very low turnout. Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has tightened his grip on power after his Liberal Democratic party won a comfortable majority in general elections on Sunday – albeit with was expected to be the lowest turnout since the war.
Abe had called a snap election in search of a fresh mandate for his growth-centred economic policy, known as Abenomics, after data showed the world’s third-biggest economy recently slipped back into recession following an April rise in the tax on consumer goods. Japanese media exit polls forecast that Abe’s LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, would retain their two-thirds majority in the lower house, enabling them to push legislation through both houses with ease.
Exit polls from the public broadcaster NHK forecast that Abe’s LDP would win about 300 seats in the 475-seat lower house. Private broadcaster TV Asahi said the ruling parties had together won 333 of the 475 seats, while TBS put the figure at 328. They needed at least 317 seats to retain their “super majority” – giving them the power to override bills rejected by the upper house and pass them into law.
The party currently has 295 seats and could register its biggest victory since it was formed six decades ago. The LDP’s junior coalition partner, Komeito, is expected to add to its tally of 31 seats. But the vote was hardly a ringing endorsement of Abe’s policies, despite forecasts that the LDP alone would win between 290 and 310 seats.
Japanese media said the ruling parties together were expected to retain their two-thirds majority, enabling them to push legislation through both houses with ease. The public broadcaster NHK and other media forecast turnout at around 52% – seven percentage points down from the last election in 2012 and the lowest since the end of the second world war.
Winning at least 317 seats – their joint strength going into the election was 326 seats – would give the ruling coalition the power to override bills rejected by the upper house and pass them into law. The result also underlines the precarious state of the main opposition Democratic party of Japan (DPJ) and confirms its failure to rebuild its support base after its trouncing by Abe’s LDP two years ago.
While the low turnout – as of 6pm local time it was just under 35%, down almost seven points on the last election two years ago – hardly amounts to an endorsement of Abe’s policies, the expected result underlines the precarious state of the main opposition Democratic party of Japan (DPJ) and confirms its failure to rebuild its support base after its trouncing by Abe’s LDP two years ago. “This is not so much a vote of confidence in Abe and the LDP as a vote of no-confidence in the political opposition,” Professor Gerry Curtis of Columbia University told Reuters.
“This is not so much a vote of confidence in Abe and the LDP as a vote of no-confidence in the political opposition,” Prof Gerry Curtis of Columbia University told Reuters. Many voters had questioned the need for an election midway through Abe’s first term. The prime minister had described the snap election as a referendum on Abenomics – his three-pronged strategy of cheap credit, public investment and structural reforms that include raising the number of women in the workforce and opening up the country’s highly protected agricultural sector.
Many voters had questioned the need for an election midway through Abe’s first term. The prime minister had described the snap election, held halfway through his first term, as a referendum on Abenomics – his three-pronged strategy of cheap credit, public investment and structural reforms that include raising the number of women in the workforce and opening up the country’s highly protected agricultural sector.
The finance minister, Taro Aso, said the expected result proved that voters were behind Abe’s economic policies. “That was the people’s verdict, so we will continue with Abenomics until the very end,” he told NHK shortly after polls closed.
Abe’s mission hit a snag in November when Japan slipped back into recession in the third quarter, amid weak consumer and corporate spending. Analysts blamed that on April’s rise in the consumption (sales) tax from 5% to 8%, which battered consumer spending.
On the same day he announced the snap election, Abe said he would delay a two-percentage-point rise in the same tax originally planned for next October until April 2017.
Abe is expected to use Sunday’s victory to silence critics inside his own party who believe the tax rise should have gone ahead as scheduled so Japan could begin addressing its huge public debt, now more than twice the size of its economy.
After almost a decade in which prime ministers have come and gone in quick succession, Abe is set to extend his longevity as leader. Abe’s first stint as prime minister, from late 2006, lasted just a year before he was forced to resign after a string of ministerial scandals and a chronic bowel problem that he now treats with new drugs. Five years later he mounted a comeback, sweeping into office by a landslide with promises of reviving the economy and restoring the country’s pride.
He is widely expected to win next September’s LDP leadership election and will not have to face voters again until upper house elections in 2016. However, doubts exist over his appetite to push through structural reforms, including labour market deregulation that would make it easier for companies to sack workers. He will also come up against strong opposition from farmers to plans to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade pact.
“We are likely to see more of what we’ve seen … piecemeal reforms moving more or less in the right direction, but at a fairly slow clip and no bold breakthroughs because of this election,” Curtis said. 
Sunday’s victory also gives Abe breathing room to proceed with two controversial policies: the restart of nuclear reactors, three years after the Fukushima meltdown, and expanding the military’s global reach by lifting the postwar ban on collective self-defence.Sunday’s victory also gives Abe breathing room to proceed with two controversial policies: the restart of nuclear reactors, three years after the Fukushima meltdown, and expanding the military’s global reach by lifting the postwar ban on collective self-defence.
Abe said he had been given a mandate to continue with his attempts to drag Japan out of deflation, but acknowledged that many voters had yet to feel the benefits of Abenomics.
“We postponed the consumption tax hike, and I hope we can now start to raise wages and create a virtuous cycle so that people can really feel that the economy is recovering,” he told NHK.
He hinted that he would introduce legislation to loosen the legal constraints on Japan’s military. “My priority is economic recovery and Japan’s proactive contribution to peace,” he said. “We hope to create laws that help protect the security of the Japanese people.”
Abe’s economic policy hit a snag when Japan slipped back into recession in the third quarter, amid weak consumer and corporate spending. Analysts blamed that on April’s rise in the consumption (sales) tax from 5% to 8%, which battered consumer spending.
On the same day he announced the snap election, Abe said he would delay a two-percentage-point rise in the same tax originally planned for next October until April 2017.
He is expected to use Sunday’s victory to silence critics inside his own party who believe the tax rise should have gone ahead as scheduled so Japan could begin addressing its huge public debt, now more than twice the size of its economy.
After almost a decade in which prime ministers have come and gone in quick succession, Abe is set to extend his longevity as leader.
His first stint as prime minister, from late 2006, lasted just a year before he was forced to resign after a string of ministerial scandals and a chronic bowel problem that he now treats with new drugs. Five years later he mounted a comeback, sweeping into office by a landslide with promises of reviving the economy and restoring national pride.
Abe is widely expected to win next September’s LDP leadership election and will not have to face voters again until upper house elections in 2016.
However, doubts exist over his appetite to push through structural reforms, including labour market deregulation that would make it easier for companies to sack workers. He will also come up against strong opposition from farmers to plans to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade pact.
“We are likely to see more of what we’ve seen É piecemeal reforms moving more or less in the right direction, but at a fairly slow clip and no bold breakthroughs because of this election,” Curtis said.