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196 Nations Plod Forward on Climate Change Deal Nations Plod Forward on Climate Change Accord
(about 4 hours later)
LIMA, Peru — Negotiators from around the globe were haggling Saturday over the final elements of a draft climate change deal that would, for the first time, commit every nation to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions — yet would still fall far short of what is needed to stave off the dangerous and costly early impacts of global warming. LIMA, Peru — Negotiators from around the globe were haggling into Saturday night over the final elements of a climate change agreement that would, for the first time, commit every nation to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions — yet would still fall far short of what is needed to stave off the dangerous and costly early impacts of global warming.
Delegates from the world’s 196 countries have been working for two weeks here, in a temporary complex of white tents at the headquarters of the Peruvian Army, to produce the framework of a climate change accord to be signed by world leaders in Paris next year. Though United Nations officials had been scheduled to release the plan on Friday at noon, longstanding divisions between rich and poor countries kept them wrangling through Friday night and well into Saturday. Delegates from nearly 200 countries have been working for two weeks here, in a temporary complex of white tents at the headquarters of the Peruvian Army, to produce the framework of a climate change accord to be signed by world leaders in Paris next year. Though United Nations officials had been scheduled to release the plan on Friday at noon, longstanding divisions between rich and poor countries kept them wrangling through Friday and into Saturday night.
At its core, the draft is expected to require every nation to put forward, over the next six months, a detailed domestic policy plan to cut its emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases from coal, gas and oil. Those plans, which would be published on a United Nations website, would form the basis of the accord to be signed next December and enacted by 2020.At its core, the draft is expected to require every nation to put forward, over the next six months, a detailed domestic policy plan to cut its emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases from coal, gas and oil. Those plans, which would be published on a United Nations website, would form the basis of the accord to be signed next December and enacted by 2020.
That basic structure represents a breakthrough in the impasse that has plagued the United Nations’ 20 years of efforts to create a serious global warming deal. Until now, negotiations had followed a divide put in place by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which required that developed countries act but did not require anything of developing nations, including China and India, two of the largest greenhouse gas polluters.That basic structure represents a breakthrough in the impasse that has plagued the United Nations’ 20 years of efforts to create a serious global warming deal. Until now, negotiations had followed a divide put in place by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which required that developed countries act but did not require anything of developing nations, including China and India, two of the largest greenhouse gas polluters.
By requiring action from every country, the Lima framework will fundamentally change the old world order that stymied earlier climate change talks. But on its own, that political breakthrough will not achieve the stated goal of the deal: to stop the rate of global emissions enough to prevent the atmosphere from warming more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit over the pre-industrial average. That is the point at which scientists say the planet will tip into dangerous and irreversible effects, such as melting sea ice, rising sea levels, increased flooding and droughts, food and water shortages, and more extreme storms. By requiring action from every country, the Lima framework will fundamentally change the old world order that stymied earlier climate change talks. But on its own, that political breakthrough will not achieve the stated goal of the deal: to slow the rate of global emissions enough to prevent the atmosphere from warming more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit over the preindustrial average. That is the point at which scientists say the planet will tip into dangerous and irreversible effects, such as melting sea ice, rising sea levels, increased flooding and droughts, food and water shortages, and more extreme storms.
Speaking to delegates here on Thursday, Secretary of State John Kerry said, “We’re still on a course leading to tragedy.”Speaking to delegates here on Thursday, Secretary of State John Kerry said, “We’re still on a course leading to tragedy.”
Given the current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the fact that the new plans would not be enacted until 2020, most experts say the best that can be hoped for is that the deal would cut emissions by about half as much as is needed to stop the 3.6-degree rise.Given the current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the fact that the new plans would not be enacted until 2020, most experts say the best that can be hoped for is that the deal would cut emissions by about half as much as is needed to stop the 3.6-degree rise.
“Nobody here thinks an agreement will be a silver bullet that eliminates this threat,” Mr. Kerry said. “But we can’t get anywhere without an agreement.”“Nobody here thinks an agreement will be a silver bullet that eliminates this threat,” Mr. Kerry said. “But we can’t get anywhere without an agreement.”
By early Saturday, delegates and negotiators were cautiously optimistic that a deal would emerge later in the day, but the language was much weaker than many nations, particularly those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, wanted to see. About 2 a.m. Saturday morning, hopes were high that a deal would soon be struck, as the Peruvian environmental officials leading the talks here circulated a draft text that included rigorous provisions laying out how countries must put forth their domestic emissions reduction plans.
And even though the emerging deal represented progress on the old divide of rich and poor, those divisions were still evident as nations fought over crucial details. But in a plenary session Saturday afternoon, the old divide of rich and poor emerged as nations fought over core provisions of the proposal.
Developing nations, led by China, have balked at proposals that would allow aggressive outside monitoring and verification of each country’s plan before a deal is signed next year. The policy plans and the level of cuts each country commits to will be voluntary, and the final draft is unlikely to include a provision, pushed for by advocacy groups, that would require a public adding of the plans and the creation of a new metric to show how many more cuts would be required to prevent the 3.6-degree temperature rise. A bloc known as the Like-Minded Countries, comprising India, China and a number of major oil-developing nations, including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, demanded that the deal include what is known in United Nations parlance as “differentiation.” They insisted on easier requirements than rich nations when putting forth their emissions statistics, balked at proposals that would allow aggressive outside monitoring and verification of each country’s plan before a deal is signed next year, and said that their plans for reducing emissions rates be met with commitments of money in the rich countries’ plans. Poor countries want rich countries’ plans to include concrete pledges to help the poor countries pay to adapt to the coming ravages of climate change, and to help them pay for new, low-carbon technology, such as wind and solar, to replace cheap but heavily polluting coal. But that requirement is nonstarter for rich countries like the United States.
Nations that are exceptionally vulnerable to the effects of climate change, like small island states and arid African countries, have demanded that in addition to putting forth plans to cut their carbon emissions, rich countries be required to pledge money to help poor countries adapt to the coming ravages. That is a nonstarter for rich nations like the United States, although the final language may include provisions for voluntary contributions. Speaking for the Like-Minded Countries, the Malaysian delegate, Gurdial Singh Nijar, said: “We are in a different stage of development. Many of you colonized us, and we started from a completely different point. Those red lines were not addressed in the text.”
“It’s the weakest option,” said Jan Kowalzig, a climate policy expert at the aid group Oxfam. “It’s not totally bad, but it’s mediocre.” Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has complained that any agreement designed to reduce consumption of fossil fuels like oil threatens its economy. Just as vulnerable island nations have called for financing to help them adapt to the ravages of climate change, Saudi Arabia has called for money to adapt to a world in which its economy is imperiled by climate change policy. Some negotiators feared that the Saudi delegation could try to stop progress on the deal at the last minute.
Faced with frustrated nations laying out hard lines, Peru’s environment minister, Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, spent Saturday meeting with various blocs — from the least developed vulnerable countries to states that depend on oil revenue to fuel their economies — and announced that by day’s end, he would put forth a new draft designed to answer their concerns and would continue the summit meeting’s formal proceedings at 9 p.m.
Some delegations are scheduled to leave Lima before then. Privately, some negotiators worried that by that point, with delegates exhausted by lack of sleep, the talks could fall apart entirely. More likely, outside observers said, was the possibility that the new text would represent a weaker, less rigorous deal than had been anticipated. As evening approached on Saturday, workers began dismantling some of the temporary structures that have housed the talks since the end of November.
Speaking to the assembly, Todd D. Stern, the lead American negotiator, urged: “Failing to produce a decision on the text before us will be seen as a major breakdown. All that we have achieved thus far and all we hope to achieve will be at risk, as well.”
Antonio Marcondes, Brazil’s ambassador to the conference, said he would continue to push for provisions demanding that developing nations receive financing to help them reduce carbon emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change.Antonio Marcondes, Brazil’s ambassador to the conference, said he would continue to push for provisions demanding that developing nations receive financing to help them reduce carbon emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change.
“We’re still concerned about differentiation, in all its forms,” said Mr. Marcondes, whose country, like China and India, is one of the world’s largest polluters and also home to millions of impoverished people.“We’re still concerned about differentiation, in all its forms,” said Mr. Marcondes, whose country, like China and India, is one of the world’s largest polluters and also home to millions of impoverished people.
In remarks to fellow delegates last week, India’s environment minister, Prakash Javadekar, said the deal “should be able to address the genuine requirements of the developing countries by providing them equitable carbon space to achieve sustainable development and eradicate poverty.”In remarks to fellow delegates last week, India’s environment minister, Prakash Javadekar, said the deal “should be able to address the genuine requirements of the developing countries by providing them equitable carbon space to achieve sustainable development and eradicate poverty.”
Major oil-producing nations are also demanding that the deal include special provisions for them. Saudi Arabia has complained that any agreement designed to reduce consumption of fossil fuels like oil threatens its economy. Just as vulnerable island nations have called for financing to help them adapt to the ravages of climate change, Saudi Arabia has called for money to adapt to a world in which its economy is imperiled by climate change policy. Some negotiators feared that the Saudi delegation could try to stop progress on the deal at the last minute.
One country that had been viewed as a wild card, and as a possible last-minute disrupter in the talks, was Russia. President Vladimir V. Putin has publicly scoffed at the science of human-caused climate change. But the lead Russian negotiator, Oleg Shamanov, expressed criticism this weekend of other countries that had slowed the process of forging a deal.One country that had been viewed as a wild card, and as a possible last-minute disrupter in the talks, was Russia. President Vladimir V. Putin has publicly scoffed at the science of human-caused climate change. But the lead Russian negotiator, Oleg Shamanov, expressed criticism this weekend of other countries that had slowed the process of forging a deal.
“Unfortunately, again and again, we step on the same rakes,” Mr. Shamanov said at about 4 a.m. on Saturday, after a fraught negotiating session broke up. “The draft is not bad, per se. We strongly support the idea of having meaningful deliverables.” He added that Russia, whose economy is deeply dependent on oil and natural gas production, was already working on its plan to cut emissions. “Unfortunately, again and again, we step on the same rakes,” Mr. Shamanov said about 4 a.m. on Saturday, after a fraught negotiating session broke up. “The draft is not bad, per se. We strongly support the idea of having meaningful deliverables.” He added that Russia, whose economy is deeply dependent on oil and natural gas production, and is also one of the world’s top five carbon polluters, was already working on its plan to cut emissions.
“We are one of the few countries doing it,” he said. “We are one of the few countries doing it,” he said. Speaking to the plenary, he surprised many observers, saying, “We are prepared to support this text.”
Even if those divisions are resolved, much of the success of the Lima deal will be determined over the coming months, as governments put forth their plans. Even if the divisions expressed Saturday are resolved, much of the success of the Lima deal will be determined over the coming months, as governments put forth their plans.
Paul Bledsoe, an aide to the Clinton administration on climate change who is now with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said, “The really difficult issues — financing, adaptation, monitoring and ultimate emissions reductions — are left to be ironed out over the next 12 months.” Paul Bledsoe, an aide to President Bill Clinton’s administration on climate change who is now with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said, “The really difficult issues — financing, adaptation, monitoring and ultimate emissions reductions — are left to be ironed out over the next 12 months.”