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Ukraine president says cease-fire holding, calming conflict with Russia Ukraine president says cease-fire holding, calming conflict with Russia
(about 5 hours later)
MOSCOW – Efforts to advance peace talks between Ukraine’s government and pro-Moscow rebels appeared on stronger footing Friday as a fragile cease-fire held in a conflict that has raised Russia-Western tensions to Cold War levels. MOSCOW —Efforts to advance peace talks between Ukraine’s government and pro-Moscow rebels appeared on stronger footing Friday as a fragile cease-fire held in a conflict that has raised Russia-Western tensions to Cold War levels.
Negotiations had been planned this week between Kiev and the rebels, who took up arms in eastern Ukraine earlier this year after protests toppled the Russia-allied government.Negotiations had been planned this week between Kiev and the rebels, who took up arms in eastern Ukraine earlier this year after protests toppled the Russia-allied government.
But Ukrainian officials put the dialogue on hold until there was evidence of wider adherence to a cease-fire — agreed in September — after repeated flare ups of violence. But Ukrainian officials put the dialogue on hold until there was evidence of wider adherence to a cease-fire — agreed to in September — after repeated flare-ups of violence.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, speaking in Sydney, Australia, said Friday was the “first 24 hours in seven months when we have had a real” halt to clashes. A Ukrainian military spokesman later said one soldier was wounded by gunfire, although he said the truce was generally holding. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, speaking in Sydney, said Friday was the “first 24 hours in seven months when we have had a real” halt to clashes. A Ukrainian military spokesman later said one soldier was wounded by gunfire, although he said the truce was generally holding.
Rebels also said they remained interested in the discussions, which are to be held in Minsk, Belarus.Rebels also said they remained interested in the discussions, which are to be held in Minsk, Belarus.
The effort to move ahead talks followed a spate of conciliatory remarks in recent days by Russian officials, who are contending with a deepening economic crisis fueled by Western sanctions and falling oil prices. The effort to move ahead with talks followed a spate of conciliatory remarks in recent days by Russian officials, who are contending with a deepening economic crisis fueled by Western sanctions and falling oil prices.
Although previous breaks in fighting have proved fleeting, Ukrainian officials appear to be more hopeful that a lasting truce may now be possible.Although previous breaks in fighting have proved fleeting, Ukrainian officials appear to be more hopeful that a lasting truce may now be possible.
But Poroshenko repeated his appeals for Western backing after blows such as Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The rebels, meanwhile, fear their rights and political voice will be weakened by Ukraine’s road toward closer ties with the European Union and the West. But Poroshenko repeated his appeals for Western backing after such blows as Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The rebels, meanwhile, fear their rights and political voice will be weakened by Ukraine’s move toward closer ties with the European Union and the West.
“This is not just a war for our independence, not a war for our sovereignty, not just a war for our territorial integrity. This is a war for freedom,” Poroshenko said in Australia, which lost 38 citizens when Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine in July. “This is not just a war for our independence, not a war for our sovereignty, not just a war for our territorial integrity. This is a war for freedom,” Poroshenko said in Australia, which lost 38 citizens when Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine in July.
In late November, Ukraine cut financial ties with the breakaway portions of its eastern industrial heartland, a measure that appeared intended to give the Kremlin the burden of supporting the rebels.In late November, Ukraine cut financial ties with the breakaway portions of its eastern industrial heartland, a measure that appeared intended to give the Kremlin the burden of supporting the rebels.
The move severed rebel-held territories from the international financial system, halting credit card and banking transactions and putting additional pressure on rebel leaders as winter sets in. Russia has been sending aid convoys without the Kiev government’s consent, including one on Friday, but Moscow has held back from open financial support for the rebels.The move severed rebel-held territories from the international financial system, halting credit card and banking transactions and putting additional pressure on rebel leaders as winter sets in. Russia has been sending aid convoys without the Kiev government’s consent, including one on Friday, but Moscow has held back from open financial support for the rebels.
“A real chance has emerged to restore peace in Ukraine,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told foreign policy experts in Moscow on Friday, according to a transcript posted on the ministry Web site. “It was difficult, but there is still a truce and a cease-fire.”“A real chance has emerged to restore peace in Ukraine,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told foreign policy experts in Moscow on Friday, according to a transcript posted on the ministry Web site. “It was difficult, but there is still a truce and a cease-fire.”
In a shift from more confrontational moments in the Ukraine crisis, Lavrov indicated that Russia saw rebel-held areas as part of Ukraine’s future.In a shift from more confrontational moments in the Ukraine crisis, Lavrov indicated that Russia saw rebel-held areas as part of Ukraine’s future.
He called for “political dialogue, which should ultimately lead to a constitutional reform in Ukraine with the participation of all regions and political forces in the country.”He called for “political dialogue, which should ultimately lead to a constitutional reform in Ukraine with the participation of all regions and political forces in the country.”
International observers have not yet seen a significant pullback of heavy weaponry in eastern Ukraine, the deputy head of a monitoring mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Alexander Hug, told reporters in Kiev on Friday. But he did say that hostilities had diminished in recent days.International observers have not yet seen a significant pullback of heavy weaponry in eastern Ukraine, the deputy head of a monitoring mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Alexander Hug, told reporters in Kiev on Friday. But he did say that hostilities had diminished in recent days.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, too, barely mentioned the rebels in a major state-of-the-nation speech last week. Coverage of the conflict has slipped in Russian state television programs, an important barometer of Kremlin priorities and aims.Russian President Vladimir Putin, too, barely mentioned the rebels in a major state-of-the-nation speech last week. Coverage of the conflict has slipped in Russian state television programs, an important barometer of Kremlin priorities and aims.
Previous attempts at détente have failed, leading many observers to be cautious over current prospects.Previous attempts at détente have failed, leading many observers to be cautious over current prospects.
A Sept. 5 cease-fire agreement never stopped the fighting, and more than 10 people a day on average have been killed since, according to U.N. estimates. Ukraine and NATO have said Russia sent thousands of its own troops into eastern Ukraine in recent months, a charge the Kremlin denies.A Sept. 5 cease-fire agreement never stopped the fighting, and more than 10 people a day on average have been killed since, according to U.N. estimates. Ukraine and NATO have said Russia sent thousands of its own troops into eastern Ukraine in recent months, a charge the Kremlin denies.
Last month, German Chancellor Angela Merkel emerged deeply pessimistic after a long one-on-one meeting with Putin, in which he was said to have denied all Russian involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.
Merkel, who grew up in Communist East Germany and speaks some Russian, was once Putin’s most sympathetic partner among major Western leaders. But after the meeting with Putin, she warned that the West should be prepared for years of poor relations with Russia.
Russia’s economic problems now suddenly weigh heavily on policymakers in Moscow.Russia’s economic problems now suddenly weigh heavily on policymakers in Moscow.
Russia’s economy is deeply dependent on exports of oil and natural gas, and global oil prices have dropped steeply and suddenly. A barrel of benchmark Brent oil hit a five-and-a-half year low on Friday. The Russian currency, the ruble, is down 41 percent against the dollar since June — marking the biggest decline since Russia’s 1998 financial crisis. Russia’s economy is deeply dependent on exports of oil and natural gas, and global oil prices have dropped steeply and suddenly. A barrel of benchmark Brent oil hit a 5 1/2- year low on Friday. The Russian currency, the ruble, is down 41 percent against the dollar since June — marking the biggest decline since Russia’s 1998 financial crisis.
The Russian Economy Ministry said last week that it expected that Russia’s economy would contract by 0.8 percent next year, and independent economists forecast an even deeper recession.The Russian Economy Ministry said last week that it expected that Russia’s economy would contract by 0.8 percent next year, and independent economists forecast an even deeper recession.
Ukraine, too, is contending with an economy that has collapsed under the burden of a year of political turmoil and war. Its currency reserves are perilously low, and some analysts have raised the prospect of default within weeks.Ukraine, too, is contending with an economy that has collapsed under the burden of a year of political turmoil and war. Its currency reserves are perilously low, and some analysts have raised the prospect of default within weeks.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk said Thursday that the country urgently needs additional aid to avoid a possible “default.”Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk said Thursday that the country urgently needs additional aid to avoid a possible “default.”