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Grudgingly, Japanese Voters Look Set to Stick With Abe Grudgingly, Japanese Voters Appear Set to Stick With Abe
(about 2 hours later)
SANYO-ONODA, Japan — In the final stretch before parliamentary elections on Sunday that may determine the fate of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic program, this gritty industrial city on Japan’s island-studded Inland Sea has been quiet.SANYO-ONODA, Japan — In the final stretch before parliamentary elections on Sunday that may determine the fate of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic program, this gritty industrial city on Japan’s island-studded Inland Sea has been quiet.
Nowhere to be seen this week were the squads of female campaign workers in brightly colored jackets who ordinarily before an election would be out by now, handing out fliers and waving at motorists. Missing, too, were the fleets of campaign cars bellowing their candidates’ names via loudspeakers. In fact, the governing-party candidate is so strongly favored to win that he has rarely bothered visiting to woo voters.Nowhere to be seen this week were the squads of female campaign workers in brightly colored jackets who ordinarily before an election would be out by now, handing out fliers and waving at motorists. Missing, too, were the fleets of campaign cars bellowing their candidates’ names via loudspeakers. In fact, the governing-party candidate is so strongly favored to win that he has rarely bothered visiting to woo voters.
Mr. Abe called the snap elections last month after economic data showed Japan to be in full-blown recession following an ill-timed tax increase, and opinion polls showed his own support levels declining along with the economy’s. He said he wanted to use the vote to get a new mandate to first enact more of his growth-inducing policies, known as Abenomics — which so far have amounted to the central bank’s flooding the economy with cash — before enacting further tax increases to rein in the ballooning national debt.Mr. Abe called the snap elections last month after economic data showed Japan to be in full-blown recession following an ill-timed tax increase, and opinion polls showed his own support levels declining along with the economy’s. He said he wanted to use the vote to get a new mandate to first enact more of his growth-inducing policies, known as Abenomics — which so far have amounted to the central bank’s flooding the economy with cash — before enacting further tax increases to rein in the ballooning national debt.
So far, the polls suggest his decision to hold the vote may well pay off in a big win for his party despite what many call tepid support. So far, the polls suggest his decision to hold the vote may well pay off in a big win for his governing party despite what many call tepid support. With just a few weeks to prepare for the sudden elections, the opposition Democrats have not been able to field enough candidates to win a majority, even if they won every contest.
People on the streets of Sanyo-Onoda and neighboring communities in western Japan expressed deep dissatisfaction in recent days with Mr. Abe’s economic policies, which they criticized for lifting the stock market but not the lot of average Japanese, whose real wages continue to decline. When asked if they would protest by voting for the opposition, however, most strongly shook their heads. People on the streets of Sanyo-Onoda and neighboring communities in western Japan expressed deep dissatisfaction in recent days with Mr. Abe’s economic policies, which they said was lifting the stock market but not the lot of average Japanese, whose real wages continue to decline. Still, when asked whether they would protest by voting for the opposition, most strongly shook their heads.
“The economy is still terrible here,” said Tatsuo Kametani, 62, a plumber in the nearby city of Mine. “But I’m still for the Liberal Democrats. We gave the opposition a chance, and they blew it.”“The economy is still terrible here,” said Tatsuo Kametani, 62, a plumber in the nearby city of Mine. “But I’m still for the Liberal Democrats. We gave the opposition a chance, and they blew it.”
This is exactly the sentiment that analysts say Mr. Abe, who took office two years ago with promises of economic revival, is counting on. They contend that he made a cold political calculation that he could lock in four more years in power if he held the vote now, before opposition parties had time to regroup from their crushing 2012 defeat. He may also be counting on voters’ lack of interest since a low turnout is expected to benefit the Liberal Democrats and their still formidable regional vote-gathering machines. This is exactly the sentiment that analysts say Mr. Abe, who took office two years ago with promises of economic revival, is counting on. They contend that he made a cold political calculation that he could lock in four more years in power if he held the vote now, before opposition parties had time to regroup from their 2012 defeat. He may also be counting on voters’ lack of interest, since a low turnout is expected to benefit the Liberal Democrats and their still formidable regional vote-gathering machines.
According to some recent opinion polls, the party might even win two-thirds of the 475 seats in the powerful Lower House, up from the 295 it held in the recently dissolved chamber. That would be enough to put Mr. Abe within reach of one of his long-held political goals: rewriting Japan’s antiwar Constitution to allow a full-fledged military. According to some recent opinion polls, the party might even win two-thirds of the 475 seats in the powerful lower house, up from the 295 it held in the recently dissolved chamber. That would be enough to put Mr. Abe within reach of one of his long-held political goals: rewriting Japan’s antiwar Constitution to allow a full-fledged military.
Still, if the polls are accurate, the expected election blowout could prove a hollow victory. Voters, political analysts and even the candidates and their supporters agree that public support of the Liberal Democrats and Mr. Abe is lukewarm at best. They say a victory will not be an embrace of the Liberal Democrats so much as a continuing rejection of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan, which is seen by most voters as having badly bungled a stint in power a few years ago.Still, if the polls are accurate, the expected election blowout could prove a hollow victory. Voters, political analysts and even the candidates and their supporters agree that public support of the Liberal Democrats and Mr. Abe is lukewarm at best. They say a victory will not be an embrace of the Liberal Democrats so much as a continuing rejection of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan, which is seen by most voters as having badly bungled a stint in power a few years ago.
“This will be a most tepid of landslide victories,” said Kenichi Kawamura, the son of the Liberal Democratic candidate in the district that includes Sanyo-Onoda, who has done much of the campaigning for his father. “The public does not enthusiastically support the Liberal Democratic Party, but it does have a phobia of the opposition.”“This will be a most tepid of landslide victories,” said Kenichi Kawamura, the son of the Liberal Democratic candidate in the district that includes Sanyo-Onoda, who has done much of the campaigning for his father. “The public does not enthusiastically support the Liberal Democratic Party, but it does have a phobia of the opposition.”
Indeed, voters appear confused about what Mr. Abe is actually asking of them, analysts say. None of the opposition parties are against his call to postpone a planned — and highly unpopular — second increase of the national sales tax, making many Japanese wonder why the elections were necessary in the first place. Indeed, voters appear confused about what Mr. Abe is asking of them, analysts say. None of the opposition parties are against his call to postpone a planned, and highly unpopular, second increase of the national sales tax, making many Japanese wonder why the elections were even necessary.
“There is nothing to debate,” said Yoshiaki Kobayashi, a political scientist at Keio University in Tokyo. "No party is going to say they want a tax increase or a bad economy.” “There is nothing to debate,” said Yoshiaki Kobayashi, a political scientist at Keio University in Tokyo. “No party is going to say they want a tax increase or a bad economy.”
Tadashi Tomishige, 63, a restaurant owner in Sanyo-Onoda, who noted that the election would be costly said, “Why do we need another election so soon? We all know who will win.” Tadashi Tomishige, 63, a restaurant owner in Sanyo-Onoda, who noted that the election would be costly, said, “Why do we need another election so soon? We all know who will win.”
Analysts say Mr. Abe wants to extend his term to pursue noneconomic parts of his agenda that have proved even less popular with voters than his economic policies, including restarting the country’s stalled nuclear plants, expanding military cooperation with the United States and possibly even changing the Constitution, something postwar Japan has never done. But Mr. Abe has shied away from these issues in the campaign, and the disorganized opposition has appeared unable to capitalize on them. Analysts say Mr. Abe wants to extend his term to pursue noneconomic parts of his agenda that have proved even less popular with voters than his economic policies, including restarting the country’s nuclear plants, expanding military cooperation with the United States and possibly changing the Constitution, something postwar Japan has never done. But Mr. Abe has shied away from these issues in the campaign, and the disorganized opposition has appeared unable to capitalize on them.
In the district including Sanyo-Onoda, a six-hour bullet train ride from Tokyo, only two opposition parties were even able to come up with candidates: the Democrats and the tiny Communist Party. Neither appears to pose much of a challenge to the incumbent, Takeo Kawamura, 72, a former education minister. In the district including Sanyo-Onoda, a six-hour bullet train ride from Tokyo, only two opposition parties were able to field candidates: the Democrats and the tiny Communist Party. Neither appears to pose much of a challenge to the incumbent, Takeo Kawamura, 72, a former education minister.
Mr. Kawamura spent only four days in his district during the campaign. On a recent morning, his son, who is also his political heir apparent, made the rounds of traditional Liberal Democratic supporters riding in the back of an unmarked Prius.Mr. Kawamura spent only four days in his district during the campaign. On a recent morning, his son, who is also his political heir apparent, made the rounds of traditional Liberal Democratic supporters riding in the back of an unmarked Prius.
At every stop, the younger Mr. Kawamura, 38, got an earful of complaints, mostly about how Abenomics has failed to improve the still-depressed economy in the region’s farming towns and smokestack cities. At every stop, the younger Mr. Kawamura, 38, got an earful of complaints, mostly about how Abenomics had failed to improve the still-depressed economy in the region’s farming towns and smokestack cities.
“I have a lot that I want to say to the Liberal Democratic Party,” said Akemi Tokunaga, the director of a nursing home where Mr. Kawamura asked for the support of deeply bowing employees. “But in the end, we have no choice. It is still better than the useless Democratic Party.”“I have a lot that I want to say to the Liberal Democratic Party,” said Akemi Tokunaga, the director of a nursing home where Mr. Kawamura asked for the support of deeply bowing employees. “But in the end, we have no choice. It is still better than the useless Democratic Party.”