Why the Golden Globes nominations matter — and what to watch for

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At 8:20 a.m. Thursday morning, Kate Beckinsale, Peter Krause, Paula Patton and Jeremy Piven will announce the nominees for the 2015 Golden Globe Awards.

Some of the contenders, voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, will probably elicit a big yawn from viewers. Do the Golden Globes even really even matter when we all know that everyone in the room is secretly holding out hopes for an Oscar? Well, actually, yes, they do. It’s a fun, boozy night where the stars are plied with copious champagne on live television. But the trophies also help set the agenda for the big winners of the award season, and establish early break-out stars from fall TV.

As a result, many nominations could offer insights and surprises. Here’s a list of some of the things to watch for when the contenders are unveiled:

* If the movies that land in the comedy and musical contenders are actually comedies and/or musicals.

Last year, the contenders for best picture, comedy or musical, included “American Hustle,” “Her” and “Nebraska” — a bunch of laugh riots. (They typed, sarcastically.) Thanks to the Globes’ system of breaking the top prizes into separate genres, “Birdman” — another dramedy — is a lock for a nomination this year, and “Into the Woods,” musical that it is, will also likely get a nod. But it will be interesting to see how the rest of the list shakes out. The question is if any straight-up true comedies will be recognized by the Hollywood Foreign Press rather than a bunch of less dour drama. Does a laugh-out-loud movie like Chris Rock’s “Top Five” have a chance? Or will a story that’s more sentimental and formulaic (we’re looking at you, “St. Vincent”) win out?

* If the awards can bring some consensus to the front-runner fragmentation.

“Boyhood” and “Birdman” have been getting a lot of love already with prizes from the New York Film Critics Circle and Gotham Awards. But there have been plenty of outliers. The National Board of Review awarded multiple prizes to “A Most Violent Year,” including best feature film; the LA Film Critics gave a best actor nod to Tom Hardy in the little-seen “Locke”; and the SAG Award nominees included surprises like Jake Gyllenhaal for “Nightcrawler” and Naomi Watts for “St. Vincent.” The Golden Globes nominations could give more credence to any of these contenders. Or they might further fragment the field by bestowing nominations on some overlooked worthies, such as David Oyelowo for “Selma,” Christopher Nolan for “Interstellar” or Bradley Cooper for “American Sniper.”

* If any actors can secure multiple nominations.

Actors are increasingly jumping back and forth from the small to big screen, which can up their chances for getting nominated in numerous categories. Last year, Julia Louis-Dreyfuss and Idris Elba were both nominated for movie and television roles (neither won anything), and this year there are many more possibilities, including Benedict Cumberbatch, for the movie “The Imitation Game”  and TV’s “Sherlock: His Lost Vow,” Mark Ruffalo, for big-screen “Foxcatcher” and HBO’s “Normal Heart,” and Bill Murray, for HBO’s “Olive Kitteridge” and film hopeful “St. Vincent.” There’s also a chance that Julianne Moore gets two film nominations, for best actress in a drama (“Still Alice”) and best supporting actress (“Maps to the Stars”).

* If we have any breakout fall TV stars.

The Golden Globes timing is lucky in one aspect: Since it’s the first award show where all the new fall shows are eligible, we get an early view at any breakout stars. The HFPA likes to show off its predictive skills and vote on the ones to watch, which is how “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” and Andy Samberg walked away with wins last year. Now, it appears Viola Davis from “How to Get Away With Murder” will be a shoo-in, thanks to the steely professor she plays in Shonda Rhimes’s soapy law school drama. Plus, the Globes always love to crown someone that would never have a shot at an Emmy. (Remember Piper Perabo’s nod for USA’s “Covert Affairs”?)

* If the absence of “Breaking Bad” and “True Detective” will shake up the drama category.

“Breaking Bad” is (finally!) no longer eligible at an award show, and despite HBO’s insistence that “True Detective” should be a drama, the HFPA has put it firmly in the miniseries category. So who will take a spot among likely nominees including “Game of Thrones” and “Downton Abbey”? Experts are hoping that Showtime’s steamy “The Affair” or Cinemax’s “The Knick” has a shot, or maybe even “How to Get Away With Murder” or Fox’s “Gotham.”

* If “Orange is the New Black” switching to comedy will have any impact.

The HFPA likes to pride itself on being hip — but last year, “Orange is the New Black,” despite being the new hotness of the moment, got a pathetic one nomination for Taylor Schilling, as lead actress in a drama. This year, marketers of the Netflix dramedy learned their lesson. Though no one would accuse the women’s prison series as being laugh-out-loud hilarious, they moved it to the comedy category, where it will likely have much better luck.

Earlier: SAG Awards nominations: ‘Birdman’ and ‘Boyhood’ continue their awards season battle