How climate change will affect every part of NSW and the ACT
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Version 0 of 1. Over the weekend the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory governments released amazingly detailed modelling of how climate change is expected to affect every part of the state. They’ve modelled changes in temperature, rainfall, fire weather (the forest fire danger index, or FFDI), and the number of hot days and cold nights down to 10km grids, for the year ranges 2020-39 and 2060-79, with midpoints of 2030 and 2070, compared to a baseline of 1990-2009. The results show one of the most detailed pictures of climate change in NSW that I’ve seen, with modelling divided into seasonal snapshots as well as annual. Here’s a summary of the findings - I’ll be looking mostly at the annual, longer term projections for 2070, but you can click through to the link above and explore the results for the early period if you’re interested. It’s going to get hotter Not surprisingly, by 2070 the state will be hotter, with maximum temperatures projected to increase by 1.8 - 2.6 degrees. Areas to the east of the Great Dividing Range will still be cooler, while western parts of the state will generally be hotter. The number of hot days (days over 35C) will increase significantly for areas in the north-west, with areas near Bourke and Moree particularly affected. The report says that by 2030, parts of the west are projected to experience an average of 12 more days above 35C per year and this will continue to rise to an additional 35 days per year by 2070. Days with a high fire danger index are likely to increase This map shows the change in the average number of days that are likely to have a FFDI over 50. The FFDI combines temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and the “drought factor”, which represents the effect of recent temperatures and rainfall on fuel availability. It’s used to determine those bushfire danger ratings you see on the side of the road. The west of the state is again affected more than the cooler east. The mean fire danger index is also projected to increase generally, as well, though again the effect will be felt on the western side of the Great Dividing Range. Seasonally, while there will be slight decreases in the mean FFDI for the more populated areas on the east coast, the mean FFDI is projected to significantly increase in spring. This is consistent with previous research suggesting a lengthening of the fire season into spring. Some parts of the state are going to get more rain Northern parts of the state are likely to receive significantly more annual rainfall, with only a smaller southern area from Canberra to the border to receive less rainfall. However, the change in rainfall isn’t going to be evenly distributed throughout the year, with many areas receiving less rainfall in spring, and some receiving less in winter: You can see detailed results for your own area with Adapt NSW’s interactive map. |