Afghanistan's gains could be reversed if donors turn away

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/dec/04/afghanistans-gains-reversed-donors-aid

Version 0 of 1.

With most foreign troops leaving Afghanistan by 31 December, there are fears that gains paid for in blood, sweat and billions of dollars of aid over 13 years may be undermined if the international community turns away and Taliban insurgents spread their footprint further across the country.

As President Ashraf Ghani meets donors in London, the debate may be whether there is appetite for long-term commitment. Question marks hang over the effectiveness of the aid already delivered, the ability of corrupt institutions to administer it, and the ability or willingness of cash-strapped donors, who are grappling with other crises, to stay the course.

The world’s richest countries – members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development – poured $45.6bn (£29.09bn) into Afghanistan for development projects over the past decade. Of this, $22.1bn went to social infrastructure and services with $8.4bn devoted to economic infrastructure and services. Hundreds of thousands more was spent on emergency relief, agriculture, forestry, fishing and reconstruction.

There have been improvements: life expectancy, which was in the mid-50s in 2001, is now about 60 years; school enrolment has risen from 900,000 in 2001 to more than 6m. Girls account for about 35% of students, up from virtually nil.

Britain’s Department for International Development says more than 60% of Afghanistan’s population live within two hours’ walking distance of a healthcare facility and more than half of pregnant women receive antenatal care. Such statistics can be deceptive – not all clinics may be open or stocked with medicines in practice; children enrolled in school may not actually be attending classes; and insecurity can hamper travel.

However, there are also less encouraging indicators: a third of the population lives below the poverty line; maternal mortality rates are still among the highest in the world; insecurity is rife; and illiteracy is above 80% for women in many areas.

Omar Samad, former Afghan ambassador to Canada and France, says the results are a mixed bag, with the most meaningful changes around the increased participation of youth and women in society. “What is lacking obviously are critical elements. One has to do with better governance, with working harder on rule of law, on building infrastructure. We have spent a lot of money on infrastructure without having a vision or a strategic plan in mind. We have also failed to train and educate a middle-management class,” he said.

Shaheen Chughtai, deputy head of humanitarian policy and campaigns at Oxfam, said that in many rural areas female literacy was close to zero and many women were living “in the middle ages”.

“In urban areas, there is light at the end of the tunnel,” he said. “There we can see women in paid employment … They are a symbol of what can be achieved and what has been achieved and it does show that this is not a lost cause. But if you look at the millions of Afghan women whose lives haven’t changed, that shows we are still near the beginning of this journey.”

The consensus seems to be that while throwing good money after bad is folly, stopping the flows entirely would be devastating. Transparency is imperative and corruption needs to be tackled, but external funds are still needed.

“Afghan people see huge sums of money going into Afghanistan and often wonder where it’s gone. What they need to see is money being spent on things they need,” Chughtai said, adding that support should be given to Afghan civil society to help people track the aid money.

Human Rights Watch said in late November that defending the gains of the past decade, especially for women and girls, will require continuing international support to, and pressure on, the new administration.

“Donors need to press President Ghani and chief executive [Abdullah] Abdullah at the London conference to take stronger measures to address violence against women, end the impunity of the security forces, and ensure the future of Afghanistan’s human rights commission,” said Phelim Kine, deputy Asia director at Human Rights Watch.

However harshly one might judge the aid programmes of the past, leaving Ghani to face the future alone does not seem to be a realistic option.

“Without this involvement there can easily be a worsening of the human rights situation, not least because of the very real domestic political pressures on Ghani to limit or further curtail women’s rights, to appoint known human rights violators to high office, to tolerate the widespread use of torture by the country’s security forces, and to leave unreformed the abusive Afghan police, militia forces and criminal justice system,” Human Rights Watch said.